Mark wheeler
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Posts posted by Mark wheeler
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Hi everyone , just thought I'd pop in after being in hibernation since last winter ! Can I ask , where has everyone gone ? John pike ,mk,blue breezer & many others ? Lovely to see others are still on here . Weather wise,After last winter,when we were all fed up of being drowned & blown away , this one is looking a lot more interesting to say the least .ive had more frosts here in the last couple of weeks than the whole of last winter . I hope everyone is well & looking forward to Christmas xx
Hi 2810 lollypop. john pike is still posting his usual great updates when he can and the captain throws in a lot of valuable input too. Amongst others . Some have left unfortunately but hopefully with some possibly snowy weather to come toward new year these will re appear . What a great forum we have . :-)
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Hi well it takes some practice and some initiative.
smiley face is ":)" just take out quotation marks. Hmm ":(" is sad face there's so many... anyway back to the models looking increasingly likely we will plunge into the cold side of things... potentially very snowy & very festive feeling, stay tuned. Fresh from GFS 12z
-- VERY nice if you like Cold -- Greenland high? we've not had one in years...Christmas Day GFS P
Cold uppers entrenched 4 corners of the British Isles temperatures hovering around freezing!!
White Christmas? the odds will be cut substantially if this is on the horizon, getting little excited.
Thanks Daniel . Sorry for late reply been so busy at work today and mod thread has taken 3 hours to get through . It's better than any tv programme at the moment eh.
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TEITS: Thanks for your post , recently I have noticed a lot of posts regarding different views regarding a Ian Brown and other current members having conflicting views in the past. My question is maybe without a 100% answer . Who was right? And are these synotics similar to this time. If memory serves me right it was when I first started looking in the background and have a vague recollection early feb 2012 maybe.Well despite some saying, a few days ago, there was no chance of a pattern change in the 10-15 day forecast period, the models are certainly trending towards a change. I mentioned a few days ago that a mega cold spell could occur after xmas and I must confess after I made that post I thought using the word "mega" was OTT. However looking at some of the output today especially the GFS P maybe I was correct.
Worth mentioning that when it comes to blocking towards Greenland developing then in my experience the GFS is the daddy. Who can forget the excellent performance of this model prior to the 2009, 2010 cold spells and lets not forget the way the ECM was often very poor. I still remember the arguments with Ian Brown when the chart below was being modelled because the ECM intially had the blocking and Lp much farther W resulting in the UK having a very mild SW,ly!
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2010/Rrea00120101218.gif
Reason for editing is due to a spelling mistake because I cannot spell lol.
Many thanks mark
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Nice GFSp Chanrt for the UK
Very stagnant cold air over the UK with Snow in the NW & SE.!!
http://modeles.meteo...fs-0-264.png?18
S
From m s murr in the mod thread .
CMON You know you want to make My Day . The Wife can't do anything that would beat that.
Yes Daniel ( Cuckoo , Cuckoo )
Ps: how do you get your smiley faces etc?
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Evening, a reasonable day with sunny spells. Not too cool again.
So Christmas....
ECM
Rubbish, mild with outbreaks of rain for most of the day
GEM
Maybe, just maybe a white Christmas
(Ignore the 850s, an issue with the model)GFS
An increasingly wet one, but the pattern looks promising beyond this point.
If anything we are seeing more uncertainty compared to yesterday where there was broad agreement.
My feelings are on no snow for the big day but perhaps some before new year.
I will take snow on my birthday 27th MR Shortwave . :-). It wouldn't be the first time infact 5th time but I've never seen a flake fall on Christmas Day . Seems weird almost like we have a hoodoo.
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Hope Matt hugo does not mind but he posted this on twitter.still a couple of straws to grab hold of. Keep the faith.:-)
Apologies for lack of chart as I am having trouble copying it.
Small minority for now still but 16 out of 51 EC ENS members show a similar blocked evolution as per the GFS after approx 26th.
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Thanks Steve really enjoyed watching those videos . I remember when we had a red alert a few years ago for London I forget which year.(does anybody remember) Although I was slightly disappointed overall it did contain for a few mins the most heaviest snow I have ever seen . It was like a wall of white . Everybody just stopped and were shocked.
Was 12 on the scale as had no strong winds.
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ha ha love it. Weather lovers from all spectrums . I thought you were a coldie knocker :-)Minus ten. I know, I know, who would have thought it.
Miss your input in the model thread even if it is not what I want to see. The more info I see the better for such an amateur like me.
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I'm at least an 8. Before I found netweather forums I would check every going site I knew in the hope of the forecast I wanted to see. And when the event comes nearer I would watch the forecast on every tv channel available for near the whole day incase there was an update. Mad to think I did that, still do but not as much as have this great forum to fall back on . Used to drive my parents insane . Oh yeah when I was really young snow was forecast and there wasn't the forecast so frequent as there is now I ran out a £100 bill calling weather call . Soon got barred from the house.
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Cheers JP hope the Synoptics all come together at the right time. Just got home and have to say I felt the coldest in a long while. I soon warmed up as some lovely chap threw an egg out a car whilst I was waiting for the bus . Frost now setting in .
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Yes please just a few flakes would be welcome and certainly better than all of last winter. Temps have dropped with a brisk windThis is a good post I would not discount a brief snow shower, with altitude & evaporative cooling.
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Cheers JP great to view your nightly updates once more.(Horray).fog is starting to form here already with lots of dew around.frustrating to have an easterly but from a mild source . Hoping for snow this year as have a 2 and half year old girl that has seen me making snowmen with my father on video from 2010 and wants snow to play with. Bless her
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wow yes quite intense here . Was not expecting it to be as heavyIt's suddenly started peeing down again as the warm front arrives.
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Well the fog and frost lifted quite quickly this morning to leave a few chinks of sun before the sporadic rain arrived. Mention on the forecast (bbc) that cloud would become much lower throughout the day and named heathrow as a potential problem . So fog an issue I think but looking more forward the weather looks to become more settled with more fog and frost into next week. Something that my father always excited him with regards to a colder winter to come later on I hope so ..,.
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4.3c is my shout
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It's going to happen I'm sure of it. Well maybe... Ummmm probably not . :-(
NIce to see though.
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The fog Is really dense here. Tempreture hovering around freezing . Cars frozen down my road but not on the Main Street . Thanks john. Do you have one of your Ramps? :-)
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Just left work and well I and my colleagues that have been working since this morning all went together brrrr. Was a bit of a shock really. Very true lassie . Totally agree
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Thanks john. There is a bit more of a breeze tonight. Chilly too.
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Thanks John. Wondered where you was. Very much miss your input in this thread on a nightly basis. I would always check in every night for your updates . They are sorely missed.
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Hi derp control . I have posted In here instead of model thread as I see conversation going against model output . I see your view and your charts and understand what your saying and respect it. I myself would prefer mild weather in winter but only if that means no snow and deep cold. ( bit of a extremist when it comes to weather) . I just found your post was very much to get a response. But in reply to your answer yes I would probably not batter an eyelid to a cold ramp but that is what 85% are looking for. (Hunt for cold) is that right ? Hey ho. :-)
Cloudy here with light winds
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What a post. Thanks this shows passion to an extreme . I hope your completely wrong mind I'm a coldie. Confusing this game eh?
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Many thanks John I will have a good read . Lots to get through :-) thanks also for the invite to pm you. I will read up on the guides first and then if needed take you up on your offer. Kind regardshi Mark
Please do not be afraid to ask questions. That is how we all advance our understanding of the fascinating subject the weather. have you had a look at the Net Wx Guides. Lots of information for a beginner in there. Not sure then please pm me and perhaps we can chat via pm rather than the thread if you like.
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Not sure where to ask this question so here goes . I often read the model thread and understand about 40% what's going on and understand the posts. But when I'm not sure and need to understand what's happening I'm so reluctant to ask. This is for several reasons. A. Cluttering the thread. B.other threads that should help I can't find a example at that time.(difficult to explain).C. The very knowledgable personal on here are in these threads and seems not in learning areas as they are occupied by the here and now (models).
Is there a forum where there is coaching/commentary on current output. With future possibilities explained and previous output also reflected.
I have been an avid follower of this site for 4 years and have learnt plenty just trying to grasp and expand my knowledge which has been a obsession since i was a child.
Here is to a lovely and snowy winter. PLEASE
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smiley face is ":)" just take out quotation marks. Hmm ":(" is sad face there's so many... anyway back to the models looking increasingly likely we will plunge into the cold side of things... potentially very snowy & very festive feeling, stay tuned. 
Model Output Discussion - The final stretch to Christmas
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Thanks Fergie for the update. May sound a silly question but when is formal warning territory?. (Not a question to you directly just intrigued as to when certain triggers down the chain of command that may respond to such warnings)
Thanks to all that contribute in here I find it both addictive and informative.