Jimmy0127

Last week they had the mighty ECM in disagreement...

There seems to be growing consensus among the more senior members that Atlantic might finally have the key to the (b)lock. I can't really see this having any weight when we're looking deep into FI, no albedo temperature effects are initialised. I have no reason to think that the Northern high has less than a week to go. But then again, I'm rubbish at this.

The Met Office is a public institution whose purpose is to advise on the potential meteorological impact on our lives. The warnings are the product of likelihood and impact. They need to maintain credibility for their own survival, as well as the survival of others. It is important that their warnings are heeded, and communicated, but not to be confused with model discussion. The ECM 144 looks important to me. It's all about that GIN corridor. If that becomes established, then this could become tricky.

GFS 06z has been doing this since the first identification of this spell - overestimating the strength of the Atlantic. I would put money on the 12z GFS pushing the front more in alignment with NAE.

Another flip-flop day model wise? Seem to be seeing good consensus now, at least to 72. I for one though will not forget the uncharacteristically poor performance of GFS over the last 48.

Sunday morning looks interesting. Deepening pressure gradient might mean lower 850s, and there's moisture there. 10cm in London wouldn't surprise me.

ECM historically better with these scenarios. Personally think the shortwave is going South. GFS OP is a bad egg though.

Hello all, Privileged to join the thread. This is my first post on Netweather, but it has been my meteorological home for a good 7 years now. Obviously a newbie, but watching this thread over the last ten days or so there seems to be little consensus over SSW. If ECM et al (soon to have GFS in alignment IMHO) verify, this would be a remarkable Easterly/Northerly. I don't understand how the stratosphere works. Even Ian F, who is a shining light in the field of meteorology and broadcasting, seems reluctant to bank anything on it. Is this unusually strong warming phase related to what these charts are churning out, or is it realistically a very small amount of air that has a small effect on the majority of it? Probably an ignorant question.