Jimmy0127

ECM ensemble mean moves in the same direction as the operational to me, i.e. Azores becoming more spherical and rigid and the rest whizzing over the top at us (a technical description).

How often do you see lower uppers in London than at the North Pole? Not far off according to ECM 240h. I'm going to ignore ECM and METO for now in favour of a very nice set of GFS ensembles. Even after they diverge, there's consensus on high pressure (if marginal).

There's a part of me that feels like a spoil sport for not being remotely interested in Glastonbury. For what it's worth I've been to Brothers cider in Shepton every week for the last three years. My forecast based on experience: it will rain. As for the models, I haven't really seen any significant amendments or insights in the last two/three days (bar the fluctuating cheeky streak from Labrador). Any ridging from the South West seems tenuous and short-lived to me.

06z GFS a little more encouraging from where I'm sitting. The southern tracking jet seems to be wimping out and the energy over Canada seems to have a more Westerly component than we've seen of late...

I buy that, to be honest Alex.

Surely the MJO has to move - it always does! Teleconnections like ENSO and MJO are, in my opinion, of very little forecasting value. It's almost on a par with climate modelling.

Your input on this forum is always incredibly insightful, and it does tend to be on the money more often than not. Don't know why I made the tongue-in-cheek comment - must be the post work beers. My apologies. Certainly wasn't disagreeing with you - the output looks like an increased amount of tropical maritime stuff to me. My comment was, ironically, tongue-in-cheek.

A very clinical, probably correct, tongue-in-cheek analysis.

I was surprised this morning after seeing the ECM and GFS ensembles when a colleague announced, "Apparently next week's going to be near thirty degrees and thundery." This seemed odd, because whilst it seems more likely now, at the time it was essentially just the GFS operational run going for this. Whilst you can always trust the press to print the most exciting of NWP output as fact, I think they're really pushing it at the moment: http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/london-weather-next-week-set-to-be-a-scorcher-with-highs-of-30c-8656519.html How long before one ensemble member one day makes a headline???

This is looking better to my eyes: The Jet will pass over Scotland after this. No longevity of the omega block. The loop will retreat southwards and weaken.

Sir Ian: an interesting imponderable re scope/shape/longevity of omega block. Evidently massive uncertainty on early-mid next week.

Quite a long video John! Well worth the viewing though; thanks for linking it. An incredibly well given talk - he has very logical approach. His style actually reminds me of Feynman a little!

Pretty stark contrast between 06z and 12z, even for T192. Nice to have a slightly less gloomy end to the run in any case.

GFS 06z op looks like a shocker...

The key to this argument is something that weather enthusiasts will understand much better than most - the fact that mathematical models are of limited use in prediction of chaotic systems. Science is about accepting a theory that can reliably predict future trials. I would argue that there's no evidence that climate modelling can do this. Global temperature data has shown that the climate models have failed in recent years, even though their predictions have had a huge political impact. The scientific method requires analysis of the verification of such a model before its efficacy can be fairly gauged. Depending on your parameters, with meteorology the period of reliability is less than a week; this period is not rising relative to the increase in processing power and the quantity of data that forms the model's initialisation. Due to this process it is generally accepted that a 28 day forecast is not possible. So meteorology is a science. It's predictions are constantly tested, scrutinised and improved. There is no such scientific process in climatology. Whilst the formulas and principles behind the top climate models are sound, there is no way to tell how well it models their interaction. I find it very hard to accept that a scientific approach is applied in this science, and as such there is little difference between it and soothsaying.

From a respectful massive newbie, and forgive me or remove this if I'm ruining the thread, but in a nutshell what are AAM and MJO?

Seems odd to think that the CET is over 1 degree below average (of course it's early in the month) given six days of almost wall-to-wall sunshine! Given the last six months' ECM/GFS model performance, I'm inclined to err on the side of tonight's ECM with this setup (though trying incredibly hard to be objective). That said, at T114 a tweak could make a massive difference come 7 days:

I can't see anything, including tonight's ECM (pictured), to suggest that continental air will survive beyond 7 days from now. GFS for the first time in days is correcting the low eastwards. Breaks my heart. A spell like this ten years ago, we'd have seen high twenties, surely? As opposed to twenty.

At least the Bank Holiday looks relatively good. Still, almost -5 850 uppers in late May is remarkable. No change to the pattern though - we'll have a sub average June - NW jet. What I mean is that I think the energy will keep flowing from the North-West, and it'll be a sub average CET in June too. Hope I'm wrong.

Thanks John, much appreciated.

Hi Folks, Sorry to post here, but it is essentially a model-related question... Getting married on Saturday in Sussex, and the models keep moving the approach of that warm front; it's doing my head in. My interpretation of the models is very limited, but if anyone can offer guidance on this setup I would be eternally grateful. I can handle increasing high level cloud, but proper warm front rain would be very disappointing. Either way, we need to plan - can anyone offer guidance??? Sorry for the unabashed desperation!

Hi Folks, Getting married on Saturday in Sussex, and the models keep moving that warm front in a worrying fashion. I can handle increasing high level cloud, but proper warm front rain would be very disappointing. Either way, we need to plan - can anyone offer guidance??? Sorry for the unabashed desperation!

Well I hope so. My old man on the other hand - moved his business three days ago to the top of the South Downs - was not amused by my enthusiastic snow message! No, but I don't want to boost your ego or anything, but your posts always seem to be quite informed and rational, inquisitive and (dare I say it) respectful. And thanks for that.

I often see similarities between following the weather and following a team - if ever there was a commentator, Nick from Sussex/Pyrenees would be it (and a good one too.) Cheers Nick for your ongoing insight on this forum - you're in a pretty fascinating weather location yourself - I'd find it hard to care about the weather in Southern England!

The GFS has been poor recently; we all know that. Medium term though, there seems to be a downgrade, which does point towards a possible return to form for me. Hope I'm wrong though, and a very near FI. Sunday's French occlusion is the next focus!