Jimmy0127

But you are clearly somewhat interested: "UKMO view (just chatted with them) remains as before: i.e. for Scandinavian block to establish after next week's milder (for some, notably so) phase and a progressively colder return from SE/E thereafter. "Yup, 'could' being the key phrase given the timescale ahead. However, the notion of the colder block (with UK somewhere to western edge of it) remains the form horse they favour currently. I've not seen the DECIDER output behind it, but have perused the EC32, so can see the rationale being employed. Anyway, we watch with interest. The polarization of solutions past next week is very striking currently and it would be foolhardy to wholly write-off any solution (including the NCEP 'Winter Blowtorch') at this juncture, albeit the seemingly contractually-required return to a more zonal or Atlantic-dominated status-quo is a known GFS trait and one often highlighted by the senior forecasters at Exeter, as a note of caution for those perusing stuff progged out past T+240. But that doesn't mean it's wrong. We just don't know... "We just having a chuckle on phone with UKMO about what certain newspapers will do to 'square' their recent/ongoing/interminable editorial line of late, versus the 12C Theta-W approaching Scotland in the UKMO-GM at T+144... ;-)" Surely accurate long range forecasting is a meteorologists goal? Especially when potentially hazardous weather is foreseeable.

Are you Steve's first author? Nonetheless, great work, and will be very interested in the output. Many thanks.

That sums it up really.

Thanks very much to Mr O'Toole and anyone else involved in this. All of the key teleconnections and influential phenomena, so often talked about and advocated in isolation on the forums, are presented in a concise and digestible manner. I'm just hope one day we'll understand how to weight their significance and interaction! Edit: no sarcasm in the above, just a whimsical aspiration of weather forecasting.

Hope I'm not teaching Grandma to suck eggs, but this link gives a pretty good idea of what's happening on our side of the Arctic: http://www.met.no/English/Ocean_and_Ice/

This is an area called risk management, which requires an evaluation of the probability and the potential consequences of a risk, followed by a decision on what, if any, measures to take to reduce either.AGW is tricky because it is unprecedented and predictions are many and varied and have historically shown poor verification. Even if you accept IPCC's analysis as gospel, there's huge error in its estimation of CO2 sensitivity. As for the effect of the resulting temperature change, we are getting even closer to speculation. So the consequences of inaction are essentially unknown. This makes an effective risk assessment impossible.If you can't gauge the risk, then you are no better than guessing to gamble on the future. Grey-Wolf could build a bunker in his garden to protect against an unprecedented nuclear war, based on the above rationale. Maybe one day it'll save his life.

Beg to differ, Stewfox. BBC Question Time last night devoted 10 minutes to this question. Awkward it was too, as both sides used the IPCC's report to justify themselves - Nigel Lawson citing the lack of evidence supporting consequentially larger and stronger storms, and Ed Davey citing evidence supporting consequentially larger and stronger storms. Lawson essentially lost the argument, and looked most foolish, when he raised the question of "the pause", and was rebuffed on the grounds that this is selective timing. We need to look at the bigger picture. Because everyone knows that global warming actually started in 1960.

Has the storm gone south? It obviously has.

I mean that I think a line from Southampton to the Wash is going to see the worst of the wind. But what do I know!

Looking at the current data, it's Sussex, Kent, East Anglia.

Seems to be very far south to me at the moment. Could strengthen and turn left, but radar looks very far south compared with forecasts...

Satellite shows that it has, quite recently - clear, cool skies eh?

Yes, slightly concerned about that - North East Anglia/Wash area could take a battering.

Ne Horrendous news.

"@bbcweather: Storm centre currently about 20 miles due N of Falmouth, moving NE at about 45mph & deepening all the while. #ukstorm. Mike S" Courtesy of Fergieweather

This weekend's weather has been fantastic PR for the Met Office. Frankly, well deserved - long range forecasting of hazardous weather. And if I hear anyone tomorrow say something like, "wasn't as bad as they said", I'm going to teach them basic thermodynamics at gunpoint.

Am I alone in being committed to pulling an all-nighter to watch how this system unfolds?

I don't understand how you can't see it - centre is tracking Pemroke to Grimsby, pending unforeseen deepening. North Somerset should be pretty windy then, no?

Am I mad to think that the East Coast should be most concerned at this point?

Apologies for the banal message. Rain quite intense in London at the moment - have a conservatory which makes a good proxy rain gauge!

Central belt of Scotland is c.1.5mn people, S/SE England is c.15mn people. Hence 10 times the interest, potential damage etc etc.Journalists will be journalists though.

Haha, know what you mean! The thing I've taken from this is how good NWP analysis is these days. Think the MetOffice have publicly shown their brilliance.

It's starting - about 200 miles SW Ireland eye..

Much better satellite images here: http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html Thank Mr Holmes for that intel.

Obviously because if people know about it they can make alternative arrangements. In 2007, I spent 5 hours on a train due to a fallen tree ahead and a bottleneck behind - no stations in between. I'd rather they checked out the line and warned me in advance. In terms of the system - it does look to be tracking slightly further south and strengthening later than expected. Middle East coast (and obviously extreme SW) must surely be highest risk?