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Su Campu

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  1. Su Campu
    ME Orange Alert National Weather Warnings STATUS ORANGE Snow-ice Warning for Dublin, Carlow, Kildare, Kilkenny, Laois, Louth, Wexford, Wicklow, Meath, Donegal, Mayo, Cork, Kerry, Tipperary and Waterford Scattered snow showers this evening, tonight and on Monday will give accumulations of between 3 and 8 cm. Snow will lie at lower levels as well as on high ground. Amounts will be highest in coastal counties of Leinster. Fresh to strong, gusty northeast winds will make for blizzard conditions in places during snow showers. A widespread sharp or severe frost tonight, lingering in many areas tomorrow. Issued:10 March 2013 12:00 Valid:10 March 2013 18:00 to 11 March 2013 18:00
  2. Su Campu
    I'm struggling to think of a time I've ever seen such a cold airmass in these parts so late in the season. 850-1000 thickness below 1270 m is almost unheard of for here at any time of the year. GFS forecast soundings for the east show a strong inversion above 700 hPa but below that a frigidly cold and dry airmass and a constant ENE wind direction from the surface up to 500 hPa. This should ensure a constant supply of streamers feeding in from Louth to northern Wicklow, where the sea track from England will be maximised, but the strong wind will most likely lead to an IOM shadow somewhere near Dublin and maybe further south where the Wales effect will be felt. It's a case of feast or famine as I would expect some areas to be under a constant barrage as others may miss out. The dryness of the airmass and strength of the wind are the limiting factors when it comes to generating precipitation. Don't forget also that the sun is as strong now as it is around mid-October so any lying snow on pathways, etc. will quickly melt between any showers. But it is a remarkable spell we're in for and a nice way to say goodbye to winter.
  3. Su Campu
    There was a lucky ASCAT pass right over the centre of the storm at 12Z today. It reported max 55 kts, but it underestimates in very strong winds due to the chaotic state of the sea, so actual winds would have been much higher. With ECMWF pressure field
  4. Su Campu
    Stórhöfði, in southern Iceland, is currently reporting 74 gust 92 knots (38 gust 47 m/s)! http://en.vedur.is/weather/observations/areas/#station=815
  5. Su Campu
    Now 38 gust 47 m/s (74 gust 92 knots) at that Icelandic station! http://en.vedur.is/weather/stations/?sid=815
  6. Su Campu
    It's very wild here in Celbridge this evening, and also at Casement, whereas at Dublin Airport things are much calmer. DUBLIN AIRPORT SSE 16 kts CASEMENT SSE 29 gust 41 kts Most likely a Föhn effect from the mountains. Meanwhile that storm has brought 64 knot sustained speeds, gust 78 knots, to Vestmannayjaer, southern Iceland at 1800Z. http://www.ogimet.co...6hora=18&vwi=Wi
  7. Su Campu
    We would have done ok only for that ridging over the Irish Sea. Its strong cap meant convection was only around 5000 ft deep - not enough for any decent precipitation. When the ridge finally did move off on Tuesday we saw things fire into action. It just shows that even with an easterly with -8 uppers there are still other factors to consider. The weather here will always throw curve balls our way. You'd think we've done something wrong to it....
  8. Su Campu
    -5.9C at Gurteen at 6 am this morning. Visibility 0 m in freezing fog.
  9. Su Campu
    Here are the hourly Fresh Snowfall/Lying Snow depths from Casement today. Time FS/LS (cm) 0600 --/<0.1 0700 0.2/-- 0800 0.5/1.0 0900 1.0/2.0 1000 1.0/2.0 1100 --/2.0 1200 --/2.0 1300 --/2.0 1400 --/1.0 1500 --/1.0 1800 --/<0.1
  10. Su Campu
    Snow grains now in Celbridge
  11. Su Campu
    Again today there's been a capping inversion at around 800 hPa over the Irish Sea that has been surpressing convection. Steering winds have been ESE'ly, but should turn more easterly during the night as the ridge erodes and the low approaces from the SE. This should mean we will see the Irish Sea finally get the finger out and maybe give something decent along the east coast by morning. Light snow showers continue on and off at Dublin Airport, and Ballyhaise reported snow at 2100. Casement's 2000Z TAF delayed the arrival of snow until 2100....but we're still waiting.
  12. Su Campu
    Met Éireann's aviation chart for 00Z makes nice reading. An area north of a line from Mayo to Wicklow has sleet and snow. There's a marked trough across central and east Ulster. Another area south of a line from Mayo to Cork contains the front and contains rain and sleet, with occasional graupel showers and light snow. In between, mist and fog, with a risk of freezing fog. DUB TAF TAF EIDW 201700Z 2018/2118 10014KT 9999 SCT020 BKN040 TEMPO 2019/2109 5000 -SN BKN010 BKN018 BECMG 2108/2110 09005KT TEMPO 2109/2118 5000 -RASN BKN012 = CASEMENT TAF EIME 201700Z 2018/2103 10006KT 9999 SCT020 BKN040 TEMPO 2018/2103 5000 -SN BKN010 OVC020 = SHANNON TAF EINN 201700Z 2018/2118 10010KT 9999 SCT015 BKN030 BECMG 2020/2022 5000 -RASN -SN BKN012 TEMPO 2022/2109 3000 -SN BKN008 = CORK TAF EICK 201700Z 2018/2118 09015KT 9999 SCT008 BKN014 TEMPO 2018/2021 4000 -RASN BKN005 BECMG 2021/2024 3000 -RASN SCT001 BKN004 PROB40 TEMPO 2100/2109 1200 -SN BKN001 BECMG 2103/2106 VRB03KT BECMG 2112/2114 29007KT 9999 NSW SCT015 BKN030 = KNOCK TAF EIKN 201700Z 2018/2118 12012KT 9999 FEW015 BKN040 TEMPO 2100/2107 BKN008 PROB30 TEMPO 2107/2112 10006KT 5000 -SN BKN005 BKN015 = BELFAST Aldergrove TAF EGAA 201655Z 2018/2118 09012KT 9999 FEW012 BKN035 PROB30 TEMPO 2018/2103 3000 SHSN BKN008 PROB40 TEMPO 2103/2118 2000 SHSN BKN005=
  13. Su Campu
    Snow warning also issued for Shannon. 1-5 cm from 2100
  14. Su Campu
    Met Éireann have issued snow warnings for Dublin Airport and Casement. Deposition 1-5 cm likely this evening (from 1930-2330 for Dublin, 1745-2345 for Casement)
  15. Su Campu
    Casement TAF shows exclusively light snow from 5 - 9 pm. TAF EIME 201400Z 2015/2024 10006KT 9999 SCT020 BKN040 TEMPO 2015/2017 5000 -RASN -SN BKN014 TEMPO 2017/2021 3000 BR -SN BKN010 =
  16. Su Campu
    It could be that the front is hanging back more than the models thought. It remains to be seen. I can't get the Castor Bay sounding, but the Camborne sounding (near Land's End) shows that the GFS was spot on but the NAE was a little too cold.
  17. Su Campu
    Valley Airport reported Unidentified Precip and dewpoint -2 as that precip passed over at 1350. This is a profile for the mid Irish Sea for 3 pm, which should be where that area of precipitation is. Nice dry boundary layer, dewpoint 3 at 1500 ft and lots of scope for it to stay below that down lower
  18. Su Campu
    Comparing the 06Z NAE and GFS to the actual 12Z Valentia sounding shows that at -3 to -4 °C both models are slightly too warm at 850 hPa, which was actually -4.7 °C in the sounding. Theta-w and theta-e were both similar to the sounding, at around +3.5 and +15 °C. 500-1000 thicknesses were slightly too high, at around 533 dm compared to 532 dm measured, but 850-1000 were bang on at around 1300 m, compared to the 1302 m measured. So even at 6 hours the models are showing 1-2 degrees error at 850 hPa, which just shows how marginal things can be. !NOWCAST! http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/sounding?region=naconf&TYPE=TEXT%3ALIST&YEAR=2013&MONTH=01&FROM=2012&TO=2012&STNM=03953
  19. Su Campu
    That was at 1200, it may have turned back to drizzle by now. The grains will melt so easily
  20. Su Campu
    Snow grains here in Celbridge and also at Casement PsMETAR BALD 201200Z 10011KT 9999 SG FEW018 SCT023 OVC041 02/M01 0998 MSL=
  21. Su Campu
    Even at this stage there are uncertainties in the exact make up of the low pressure centres off the SW. The NAE has two very distinct centres whereas the GFS has a more flabby trough. This discrepancy leads to variations in wind direction and speed, which will have a bearing on things. But going on other factors it does look good for some continuous snow to low levels along a line roughly from Galway to Waterford, with snow line rising slightly further SW of that line. It has the word nowcast written all over it though, given the subtle but important uncertainties.
  22. Su Campu
    Temperature/Dewpoint at both Dublin Airport and Casement were identical at +1.9/-1.3C at midnight.
  23. Su Campu
    If you look at the 850 and 700 height charts on weatheronline you can see that the lines diverge over the Irish Sea. Divergence at lower levels causes subsidence from above, which surpresses convection. Look at the streamer just north of the IOM. It's propagating in a WNW direction, which matches the steering flow at 850-700 hPa levels. Nearer to us the flow is diverging and those showers off the east are not as strong as they should be with such cold uppers.
  24. Su Campu
    Dewpoint at Dublin Airport has gone below 0 but Casement still +1 METAR EIDW 191600Z 10007KT 9999 FEW010 SCT025 BKN050 02/M00 Q1001 NOSIG= PsMETAR BALD 191600Z 08003KT 9999 FEW016 SCT031 BKN040 02/01 1001 MSL RERA=
  25. Su Campu
    I'm currently at 280 m up near Ballinascorney, south of Tallaght. Yesterday this was white, trees and all, but now it's just a mucky green mess. Snow totally disappeared. Some snow grains falling here now though. Temp +1.5
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