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Su Campu

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Everything posted by Su Campu

  1. Su Campu
    Weather and dewpoints at 12 pm. Dewpoints mostly above zero.
  2. Su Campu
    That's exactly how I've been seeing it too. Always thought that lobe would be too progressive for height rises to our N/NW.
  3. Su Campu
    GFS 18Z is a stinker, even for the east coast on Tuesday/Wed. Just too far west for the cold again. Some Cu and Sc is the best it offers as a strong cap takes hold.
  4. Su Campu
    Sorry, I'm no longer on boards.
  5. Su Campu
    http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=taup&HH=3&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=&WMO=
  6. Su Campu
    The source for Monday's early cold comes from near Iceland and therefore some B.L. modification will occur before reaching the UK. Don't be surprised to see a more wintry mix rather than snow in some places. Thereafter of course the cold's from the east and should mean business.
  7. Su Campu
    Sorry, just noticed that and corrected it now!!
  8. Su Campu
    Just for interest, this chart is a blend of the big 6 models for Wednesday and again for next Saturday.Taken from here
  9. Su Campu
    A bit of a downgrade in the GFS for the east coast Tuesday/Wednesday. Cold shifted a little to the east. ECM trying its best for us before going with that milder flow later on.
  10. Su Campu
    I like the look of the GFS for Leinster on Tuesday. Stiff easterly with T850 -8 to -9 °C, T925 -3, theta-e around 9 and 850-1000 PT of 1285 m. Any streamers should be shallow enough (10,000 ft tops), but enough to generate some flurries of snow and graupel.
  11. Su Campu
    Taking the models' word for it just up to 96 hrs and going on experience thereafter, I still see no real signal for substantial northward height builds and a retrogressive pattern out to 10-12 days. I still think a slow progressive pattern will preclude much westward cold extension, but SE England is always in with a chance of a brief glancing blow. I think we'll see NAO forecasts take a bump upwards from what they've been showing. After that of course it's all to play for as we see how the SSW propogates.
  12. Su Campu
    And another problem I find is that the page number you're on in a thread is not indicated when you're reading the thread so it's frustrating trying to move to the next page when you don't know what page you're on now. A Next button would be a help, or at least grey out the current page.
  13. Su Campu
    Iceland met http://en.vedur.is/weather/shipping/atlantic/ To see up to the 240 hrs, change the timestamp in the url to the hour you want
  14. Su Campu
    That chart shows 500 hPa geopotential, not thickness. Actual thickness over Ireland at that time was 516-520 dm, as shown by this analysis (colour-shading is thickness, black line is 500 hPa geopotential). http://www2.wetter3.de/Archiv/GFS_05Grad/2010120200_1.gif
  15. Su Campu
    I agree. I tried to say that earlier but it didn't go down too well. An interesting few days to come before then though.
  16. Su Campu
    I've never known it to snow in Ireland with 528 dm thicknesses unless there's already a cold pool in place. 522 is really the benchmark for a setup such as we are looking at in the next few days.
  17. Su Campu
    Today's 1 hPa analysis shows a huge temperature range from -73 to +39 C! http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwf1a12.gif
  18. Su Campu
    My original comment related to after midweek.
  19. Su Campu
    I am saying it how I see it. The models themselves are posting similiarly (at the moment), with only glancing blows followed by a mostly westerly theme. But even disregarding the models, that is how I see the broadscale pattern emerging. That's my opinion.
  20. Su Campu
    As I said, look past the models. There is fairly good agreement at a 500 hPa scale for the next few days, with a dipole setting up either side of the Pole. Projecting that on, retrogression looks unlikely and we should see those dipoles move only slowly. We lie in between, with the Atlantic in relative control.
  21. Su Campu
    I was never sceptical, highly or otherwise, about an SSW in January. I did say though that I felt that that as December had passed our chances of proper cold may have passed. I may have been wrong on that front (no pun intended).
  22. Su Campu
    In what way?
  23. Su Campu
    The big three are pretty agreed on a general 500 hPa split over the next week, with two vortices setting up shop over Canada/Greenland and central Russia. Positive NAO and Atlantic dominance for the forseeable after around mid-week. No point in looking at the models too much, in fact, probably better to throw them out the window and look at the largescale pattern evolution.
  24. Su Campu
    We need more like 522 dm to be almost sure of snow to all levels, but a better indicator is the 850-1000 hPa thickness, which homes in on the most important layer of the atmosphere for snow. Less than 1290 m would be my indicator for snow. Remember though that thickness is not only a function of the mean temperature of the layer but also of the moisture content. For the same mean temperature, a drier layer will have a lower thickness than a more humid one. T850 of -8 °C is usually a good starting point for snow but there are many more factors that must also be consulted too, such as surface pressure, low-level inversions, day vs night, etc. With a solid cold pool already in place we can and have had had snow with much warmer T850s.
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