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Djdazzle

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Everything posted by Djdazzle

  1. Djdazzle
    GFS 6z very different to the 0z after 144 with the positioning of the LP.
  2. Djdazzle
    I don’t recall a major issue with trees after summer 95. And I would hasten a guess that the ground around the tree roots is nowhere near as dry as in 76 as there was a long run of dry months preceding it along with a dry hot summer in 1975.
  3. Djdazzle
    Grass recovers quickly after rain. Even at the end of summer 95 it was back to being green after a few days.
  4. Djdazzle
    That’s interesting because on 1/7/15 it was 34C before midday. Always wonder how hot that day could have been without the 2 hour cloud cover!
  5. Djdazzle
    If that run isn't a warm outlier, I'll fall of my chair. 35C at midday on a GFS chart? And to think that GFS undercooks . . . Incidentally, what was the midday temp In London on 10/8/03?
  6. Djdazzle
    I have never seen GFS raw temps that high on an op run within that range in my 15 years of model watching. Unlikely to happen and probably a warm outlier, but the potential is certainly there next week for some very high temps.
  7. Djdazzle
    You will always get a bit of intra run variation. Very small changes to the LP position will have big impacts further down. 12z looks very good though.
  8. Djdazzle
    Yet another poor cloud forecast for today. Why are they so bad at it? The map t for 8am showed most of England under clear skies. Do they not actually look out of their windows?
  9. Djdazzle
    I’m just really curious to see if the models back the trough south and west as some have been suggesting. The breakdown has never been in the reliable Day 10 charts don’t have much more chance of verifying than day 100 charts. Plume or dartboard low!
  10. Djdazzle
    Nobody is stopping you. Ramp away . . . CFS 12z +4500 was showing -22 uppers the other day . .
  11. Djdazzle
    It seems that ECM does not agree with the unsettled route.
  12. Djdazzle
    And then the law of sod would give us a run of record breaking Augusts!
  13. Djdazzle
    Probably because it might improve your understanding. . . But that would probably spoil your fun!
  14. Djdazzle
    Myself probably! But it was CreweCold who mentioned the word! Don’t think ECM will be key tonight. If the 00z runs are unsettled then maybe something is afoot!
  15. Djdazzle
    I said I’d complain yes. But didn’t say that anyone had promised 6 weeks of good weather.
  16. Djdazzle
    Nobody has. Didn’t say that.
  17. Djdazzle
    If the school holidays are ruined by crap weather, I will complain trust me. We don’t work on a credit system. Regardless of the past 3 months, I want a hot dry August. The ‘need rain’ thing is grossly exaggerated.
  18. Djdazzle
    Doesn’t necessarily follow though. Who knows what may happen. As has been mentioned the NWP may not have a handle on things.
  19. Djdazzle
    Read the posts from Tamara and Singularlty.
  20. Djdazzle
    I’d suggest you read the posts by Singularity and Tamara on the mod thread just for balance.
  21. Djdazzle
    It may not be as soon as initially modelled. But witb all the signals, it would be so surprising if it didn’t happen.
  22. Djdazzle
    That’s quite shocking disagreement at 120.
  23. Djdazzle
    I think the issue is with people speaking like it’s a given. 6z is a cold outlier anyway.
  24. Djdazzle
    Fair enough. Awaiting ECM . . .
  25. Djdazzle
    Except that it doesn’t! Looks hot from Fri through to Mon. Anything after that Is irrelevant.
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