supernova
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Posts posted by supernova
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Did somebody fart?
All too familiar smell of disappointment suddenly pervading this forum as our great warhorse the UKMO appears to have gone lame whilst our fickle mare the GFS appears to fancy the challenge but doesn't quite have the necessary stamina to make it over the line despite better arctic heights and a more westerly displacement in earlier charts.
Start queuing up for the usual cliches involving the vertical displacement of various bathroom drying tools. Roll on ECM, thank the weather gods there are something like 10-20 more runs before we reach the point where winter might/might have/could have/still could start!
PS Would have loved to have posted a chart for discussion but not sure which is the least offensive for a minute, will revert when I find one!
PPS Considering there are 750 viewing this thread it has gone awfully quiet. Is someone else going to say it's only one run or have I got to do it?
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Frosty will no doubt lead the meltdown on here when he sees the full 06z GFS run, predicting snow every day in many parts from Thursday 30th Jan to the following Monday, Feb 3rd.
Who knows what is coming really but we now appear to have good agreement from all models that next week may bring us our first real taste of winter so far.
More worryingly, a significant amount of precipitation for those areas already affected by flooding appears likely, however it falls, and whilst true precipitation totals to the end of the month are impossible to predict the trend doesn't inspire confidence.
Let's hope the impact is not as serious as it might be. Also, much credit due to the Environment Agency in my opinion, might be my imagination but I perceive them to have been significantly more visible over recent weeks with outstanding awareness, advice and real action from what appears to be a very dedicated team. I know when I was eating mince pies and opening Christmas presents most of them were working to stop people from flooding and they haven't appeared to have had much respite since, with more toil forthcoming. Credit where credit's due if I'm right and my thoughts go to anyone who's home is at risk from further impending rain - we had our own issues in Lincolnshire in 2007 and it's not nice.
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Very disappointing output this morning given the exceptionally mild nature of this winter so far and a much changed MetO outlook for the foreseeable...
UK Outlook for Tuesday 28 Jan 2014 to Thursday 6 Feb 2014:
Wintry in the north to start with, followed by the south, where it will feel cold in strong easterly winds with the need for heating systems everywhere to require use of the ON switch and potential use of woollen clothing in more exposed areas. Several layers may be necessary during colder interludes and there is also the possibility of hats, gloves and scarves being aired later in the period. Ice scrapers may be visible at times, particularly in the mornings, and snow shovels, days off work and widespread hooping, cheering and spontaneous applause is possible. A return to more typical Westerly regime expected later in the period but current indications suggest this may be blocked for some time to come and may in fact be postponed by sliding lows, northern heights and potential blizzards.
Also noticed this new addition to the Botched English Dictionary
rampede
e.g.
- the Japanese weather forecasting model was predicting widespread snowy conditions in a wild rampede
- a rampede of weather fanatics, meteorological model watchers or forum users
*Thought to have been first used by a popular Netweather forum contributor Steve Murr in response to an untypical JMAzing model output in January 2014. Murr is also credited with other definitions including BOOM! model charts and the famous "Murr sausage" which is thought to have related to high pressure in the Scandinavian region shaped much like, erm, a sausage.I expect there are any number of doom mongers, naysayers and "winter is over" merchants feeling very foolish this morning - we're not over the line yet by any means and they may indeed have the last laugh if this wintry interlude implodes but the output this morning is encouraging to say the least and when Gibby starts ramping you know it's close
Just seen Phil NW post above, erm, so GFS clearly backing everything nicely west in the 06z compared to the 0z
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I don't think it's the Met's Further Outlook he's referring to, more Ian F's (paraphrasing) "there will hardly be any snow, but there is a concern over rain, and then we're back to westerlies".
But on the other hand he did say that the Met really respect the JMA (we already knew that from him saying the same last winter).
So with the JMA being quite bullish, then it's all a bit confused.com.
At least we have the whole of Feb and 10 days of Feb. I make that 5 weeks.......but don't forget what happened last March!
Or, erm, 10 days? Childish I know but it was there for the asking (sorry mate)! I know I'm one of the guilty parties tonight who have promoted the JMA from zero to hero but (not on my own mind you and when Fergieweather gave it colleague kudos it made my week) but it is neck and neck with GFS on verification stats (heights) according to the earlier link from Nick Sussex unless I'm reading it wrongly and as a result we'd be foolish to ignore its evolution which, most would agree, produces some of the charts of the winter in later time frames.
Actually it's slapped the GFS rudely over recent days but overall, across the whole time period, they're neck and neck. Good to know!
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Lets hope today's JMA looks similar.
ECM's turn now.
Thankfully it did….or better!
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no I'm going by the met extended outlook. Ian's updates that the Atlantic taking charge again into next week. We been chasing cold since November on the charts. And I think it's time now to give it up for me anyway. The next 10 days on the charts and ensembles don't paint anything uk cold wide. So that takes us into feb. Sorry but just how I feel tonight think like I said Ian's update is a real kick in the teeth
Oh well that's it then, a non winter and warmest spring on record incoming! Really, unless GloSea5 is a crystal ball I hope you won't mind if I don't take your last few posts too seriously. Not saying you/they are wrong but honestly this constant doom and gloom is counter productive, factless and depressing.
This is the the GEFS ensembles for London from the 12z run which as we all know was milder than only six hours previously. When every one of these lines consistently trends above +5 I'm up for calling it a day but until then can we at least stop pretending we know what the next six weeks may bring and try to offer a least a degree of constructive analysis, good or bad, rather than the constant pandering to defeatism. Fergieweather stated the MetO view is that after Friday there is good confidence for a return to a Westerly breakthrough, whatever that may bring, but the MetO have also been saying all week (Countryfile yesterday was a classic) that there is an enormous range of options on offer and little certainty as to the outcome much beyond a shorter than normal timescale.
ECM now running and to me this chart at 144hrs has enormous promise, let's keep the candle burning for a while longer eh, there's time yet for an interesting end to the season so chin up...
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Lots of time for upgrades and there'll be some changes yet as we approach the weekend. Until last night winter was over, I mean really completely, utterly, throw in the towel over according to lots of posters on here, then it was back on, now it's not sure. Let's see.
oooh! this from the well respected, built for a small island JMA…just saying.
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ok I take a three day net weather ban if feb is cold and thats even if we see two weeks of something cold I bet bottom dollar a net weather ban nothing favours the uk getting cold arctic heights are all but gone and the projected warming in the strat has not even happened and even if it does with lag time it will be march.
It's a strong bet and a double whammy if you're wrong ER 'cos not only would it be cold in Feb (if you're wrong) but nor would you be able to take part in the seismic pleasure of being on here to participate in its unfolding! All us coldies share your frustration and, hey, it's possible we're about to have a snowless winter but it's pretty unlikely and I'd be frankly amazed if this zonal toss continues much into the new month based on everything before us. I'll have you a virtual quid ECM throws us some interest, none of the models have got this covered and even if they did I doubt we'd be able to verify until it was practically on top of us. If this Scandi high does eventually chuck in the towel without getting hitched, or just disappears without a whimper, it'd be out of character with the procession of notable weather we've seen over recent years across all seasons and it does just make you wonder whether it's feasible we could endure such an average winter - unless of course it's mild extremes you're looking to record! In the meantime a strengthening Arctic high UKMO 144hrs - all is not totally lost...
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Would love to know why Piers Corbyn at Weather Action is saying his Feb 45 day forecast is the most important event since 2010 but I can't bring myself to spend £25 to find out…without being unfair to Mr Corbyn and revealing his forecast or offering anything too specific, does anyone have any idea what he's on about, i.e. is he predicting a particularly snowy month which is, I suppose, my inference due to the 2010 comparison? Piers_Corbyn tweet
BI FEB 45d IS LOADED "WA's most important fcst since Dec 2010"
Differences emerging between the big three even at 72 hrs which only exacerbates over time although this morning's GFS06z is slightly closer to UKMO than last night's run in the shorter term and as a result is less offensive later on, as others have mentioned, although as ever it goes bonkers in low res.
And I know I mentioned this the other day as a result of some interesting posts from Kentish CZ amongst others but there really is, to my eye at least, a remarkable similarity between currently modelled solutions from GFS this morning and what it was saying this time exactly five years ago in 2009 when it modelled an over progressive zonal spread from the middle of Jan onwards only for the Azores high to wash over the UK, join the Scandi high and drag in a slider low which delivered a memorable first week of Feb. Well worth checking out the evolution which started here http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?jour=26&mois=1&annee=2009&heure=6&archive=1&mode=0&ech=6&carte=0
See how it models it from this date, Jan 26 2009, then whiz forward to 30 or 31st Jan 2009 on the archive selector and see the difference - incredible.
Sadly can't seem to see the N Hem chart which would be really interesting - can anybody tell me if these archives are available anywhere, there is clearly the development of a Greenland high at some point as the Azores high links to it and puts us in the way of a fearsome north easterly plunge but it's hard to see how this evolves without the NH synoptics to hand?
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A lot of chat on here about a 'pattern change'? Why, who has predicted it and how reliable is this?
What we have is the POTENTIAL no more for a pattern change.
Be a shame to hype it up out of all proportion for it to go ---s up and loads of toys out of prams from the usual suspects.
yes the MJO prediction of phase 6 or 7 for both January and February does hold out the promise of promising 500mb anomalies, but it ain't happened yet.
The 500mb anomaly charts, see link below, for 6-10 and 8-14 NOAA outputs, again holds out POTENTIAL nothing more at the moment. They have shown this for almost a week now, clue 6-7 days ago, and they still show similar charts 6-7 days down the line. So care and sensible ideas are best for the moment. If deep cold and snow rattle down on the synoptic outputs to 72h then okay ramp it up but now???
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php
Of course you're both right, although there's a tickle of the oft-quoted "potential" kicking around farther out tonight, in the reliable there is only more of the same damp, rainy autumnal, naughties dross. So for anyone getting unnecessarily excited about persistent leanings towards an Arctic high, blocking signals, greater amplification, split PV's, Steve Murr's awakening from an unusually quiet spell, Frosty's return from hibernation to cheer us up, TEITS' very welcome ramp, Tamara's delivery of more than one enlightening technical insight into the rationale behind expected pattern change, Nick Sussex's consistent disaggregation from a treasure trove of knowledge, Fergieweather's persistent reminder of our current uncertainty and a wide range of other posts and contributors nudging us to stop being so blummin' miserable I would urge all of us to maintain a slightly Victorian, entirely safe and convincingly straight-forward cushion against even the slightest possible chance that we might, just, perhaps, be on the verge of a more interesting seasonal spell than the relentless zonal dross we've had to endure thus far this so called winter.Well said John, it's always a pleasure to read your balanced, analytical and non-hysterical posts.
I'm not having a pop, actually, I rate John and other's knowledge as invaluable on here, but I'd like to think we'd at least be allowed a moment of wishful thinking given the charts before us, however far into FI they remain. Come on folks, this isn't the Cynical Thread it's the Model Discussion Thread and like it or not the models are showing us a change of trend across all perspectives, albeit not from tomorrow.Besides, if Piers Corbyn says there's stuff going down it must be true!
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Woken again by rain hammering against my bedroom window, I decided to have a peak at how the forecast synoptics were looking during the early morning. What I found fascinating on looking at the overnight model runs is how the upper air pattern is being forecast to evolve, as we head into the last 3rd of January, in terms of the Northern Hemisphere.
If mods will allow me a little cross-pollinating from the Stratosphere thread briefly
, my mind became alerted to a couple of posts from Interitus and Tamara, that I'd read on that thread, prior to Christmas. These were discussing the chances of a Stratospheric warming occuring in Jan/Feb this Winter, given the following background teleconnecting factors: westerly QBO, neutral ENSO signal and -PDO. Here below is part of Tamara's post, at that time:Quote: "For westerly QBO, broadly neutral ENSO, and -PDO years there have been no significant warmings over the last 50 to 60 years in January. With the solar state in the equation then late January and February holds better possibilities as often stated on here. With the above dynamics in mind, then we require the +QBO to weaken significantly in coming weeks to not just allow this potential Asian MT to be as effective as possible, but we also require the persistence of the Eastern Pacific ridge to sustain and increase the wave 2 activity on the vortex. As wavelengths grow through the winter, the wave activity should become increasingly effective, but its quite an ask to expect any forecasted warming to work effectively as early as from the first part of January
We saw the strong Eastern Pacific ridge in winter 08/09 just like now,, so we get an idea of what might be possible over the coming weeks if the above factors play out favourably and wave activity is sustained."
As we know, the skies are littered with many mid to long range forecasts being blown away, like confetti on the wind, based solely on synoptic pattern matching alone (esp. 1 year). But given this Winters's teleconnecting factors,it may be worth taking a closer look at Jan. 2009, in terms of how that month developed synoptically, especially with regard to the upper air profile, over the Northern Hemisphere, during the last 10 days or so. What really is striking about the last 3rd of Jan. 2009 is how similar the NH synoptic profile of that year is starting to resemble this late Jan., from the model's perspective. Paying particular attention to the unfolding scenario upstream, with the pattern becoming highly amplified over the East Pacific/West coast U.S, with a strong upper ridge building north to Alaska and aiding the formation of an Arctic High, just north of that location. This in turn leading to a broad upper trough plunging south through the C and E. U.S. Also worth noting is the similarity synoptically, over Russia now, and indeed in 2009, I'm speaking in broad, general terms here. Below are 2 charts to illustrate my thoughts, a brief snapshot in time of course.
ECM t168 2014.
21st Jan.2009.
Again I want to reiterate, a micro moment pattern match for sure but certainly interesting, given broadly similar background factors this year and the Winter of 2008/09.
Quick thank you to Interitus and Tamara for quoting there discussions on the Strat. thread, back in December. And Tams keep up the great work you're doing, both here on and the Strat thread, informative and well balanced as ever, just hope I havnt plagiarised your work too much.
So anyone for a cold and snowy easterly by the 2nd week in February?
From my IMBY perpective, I certainly hope so.......of course, my profound apologies to anyone reading this and living in Galway! Tom.
Now that's the sort of lateral thinking I'm loving all you posters this morning….
From this...
To this….
To this!
Which meant this (from Met Office archive)...
February 2 - 6 Heavy snowfalls in eastern England, with significant travel disruption in London and the south-east.
There were heavy snowfalls in many parts of eastern England overnight 1st/2nd, with widespread travel disruption. London and parts of Essex, Kent, Surrey and Hampshire were particularly badly affected, but there was also disruption in parts of northern and eastern England. Runways were closed at Heathrow, all London buses were stopped and vehicles were abandoned in the Yorkshire Wolds.
Nothing ever goes quite the same I know but it's yet another reminder to all the naysayers and doom mongers that big changes can happen quickly and the potential height rises downstream, should they occur as modelled, could signal the beginning of a very significant change in our weather - not before time. Nicholas B's highlight of P3 in the latest ensembles is only further evidence of what could happen. Not saying will, just saying could.
For those who missed it...
Which would lead to this...
Let's stay positive…this zonal nonsense can't carry on forever, that's impossible (isn't it?)
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Yes I went into one this morning over its push east of the Azores high! its not likely because the overall pattern is expected to keep this displaced to the west, and also bear in mind those comments from NCEP re the GFS, that should call into question how much energy it throws east. It's very finely balanced at the moment and I'm still remaining positive.
Gfs18z certainly closer to Euros tonight, Azores high westwards correction. Encouraging?
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So after all tonights outputs we've made little headway in knowing what will happen apart from troughing near the UK , high pressure to the ne and the models reluctant to part with the high.
Chances of some snow depending on how far west/east the pattern is, its not bad output just frustrating, if this was early December it would be interesting to see this battle, as it is now we don't have weeks to play with so we need more upstream amplification to hold back that energy for longer.
This holding pattern is past its sell by date, we want authority to land and quickly before we run out of fuel.
Nick to my eye, albeit one which is lacking in any significant skill or knowledge, there appears to have been a steady westwards flattening of any Azores high throughout GFS runs today and if this were to continue with the GFS18z then all models have the potential to look very similar at 120hrs which is probably the point at which we fall for another relentless 2014 winter tease or, with a prevailing wind and favourable trough disruption, we actually get within shouting distance of an Easterly shot at cold, albeit one based as much on hope as model predictability?
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If it had been the GFS or ECM, sure. The thing is, if we'd only had the UKMO this winter, we would have had very few "cry wolf" events from the models, so when the UKMO shows something interesting I sit up!
I accept all the UKMO charts from T72 to T144 are not "stella" due to lack of cold on the continent, and yes where would it go from T144, a little extra height building to the north maybe needed, but as they are they aren't a long way from drawing enough cold into northern areas for snow, and it wouldn't be dry either. Oh well, the weather will do what it will! Just thought the charts needed flagging up, why does the GFS get all the attention!
Fair point, this is no phantom ECM Easterly at 192hrs+ this is an oh so close undercut on the near edge of reliable from this winter's top performing model, in the face of a complex trough scenario which could go either way as Nick Sussex and others have so succinctly pointed out . I think the biggest problem is not so much what the models are showing but the fact that we're all a bit model fatigued and Frosty isn't posting UKMO charts next to tins of Carlsberg to keep us all positive! So Frosty, this is for you, let's hope the UKMO….
can pull a rabbit out of the hat...
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The latest MERRA data shows that the 9th recorded the 2nd highest (out of 12793 days) combined 10mb wave 1+2 amplitude of geopotential height at 60°N, a little behind 12/02/89 which was followed by an SSW 9 days later.
Interitus, is this shown on some form of chart/graph anywhere - would be interesting to see it visually? Also, do you know if SSW's have followed similar combined amplitude incidences (e.g. 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th highest etc). Sorry if I'm being a dunce, sincere question from thick Northerner!
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Well not quite the continuation of yesterday's stellar runs many were hoping for from both GFS and UKMO but all is not yet lost and a possible SSW being discussed in the Strat thread, albeit still in FI http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78161-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20132014/page-48
For those who've thrown in the towel already there are still a number of potential solutions, even within tonight's offerings, which could provide a noteworthy event for most...
Meanwhile ECM rolling and looks very promising, even at 120hrs
Edit: Just seen 144hrs
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IF the UK does go into the cold air can we all remember one VITAL thing, that is for those discussing will it won't it snow in my back garden at extended time frames. By extended I mean ANYTHING beyond about 24h. Think back to summer rainfall, how accurate for amount, timing and places was any model at 24h let alone discussing it at 120h or more? Rainfall needs essentially only one variable compared to the 7 or 8 to get snow. Please remember this before arguing about one item or another with one another.
I have lost count how many times I urge caution re snow predictions beyond, sometimes even less than 24h EVERY single winter.
Quite right John and even when we're at that stage this thread isn't the place for IMBYism anyway. Or this, which is what some of last night's posts might have led us to believe was imminent... http://www.wimp.com/antarcticaweather/ Glad we've cleared that up then (sorry Mods). More appropriately, despite an Eastwards retrenchment of the cold in the overnight model runs there's still an excellent chance of seeing our first shot of winter next week and I was very encouraged to see SnowBallz and Fergieweather's subtle hints at something brewing in the Strat last night - might be reading too much into their little tease but I hope not. Would be interested to understand the general potential for convective snow showers on the East Coast if the models play out as currently progged…synoptics look generally favourable to me assuming an Easterly does in fact arrive?
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I'm not having a pop, actually, I rate John and other's knowledge as invaluable on here, but I'd like to think we'd at least be allowed a moment of wishful thinking given the charts before us, however far into FI they remain. Come on folks, this isn't the Cynical Thread it's the Model Discussion Thread and like it or not the models are showing us a change of trend across all perspectives, albeit not from tomorrow.
From my IMBY perpective, I certainly hope so....
Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by supernova
I'm really keen to hear from some of our more experienced members regards why the UKMO has taken ill and what needs to change to get us heading back towards deeper wintriness. Anyone?Also, for me at least:-Helpful....Discussion, analysis, experience, observation, generosity of knowledge, humour (where appropriate)Unhelpful....Childish sniping, anger, bitterness, one-liners that have nothing to do with models (or anything else) and vindictivenessGod alone knows what our respected mods must have removed if recent pages are what we're actually left with. Sadly I've very little weather knowledge compared to many on here but I am privileged to have the opportunity to learn from this forum whilst sharing the chase for interesting synoptics with like-minded enthusiasts BUT some of you need help, seriously, grow up. Rant over. ECM imminent. Can't wait.