Daniel*
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Posts posted by Daniel*
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40 minutes ago, Northwest NI said:
Yet when I land on my Mediterranean holiday whose suitcases are rolling off in the next belt? -Londoners and Southern English regional airport arrivals
Don’t understand this point Greater London alone is home to over 10 million people, people want to escape the city and have a change in scenery it’s not just about weather. Incomes are also higher that probably has a role. If you lived in SE especially coastal East Sussex where I spend quite a lot of time in summer, I think you would be shocked how much better summer climate is compared to back home in Northern Ireland. It’s noticeable even compared to London while it less warm the cloud free days are much more common. The summer is good on average and relative speaking it would be very good compared to what you deal with.
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East London much wetter today
locally nearing 10mm wetter than expected.
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2 hours ago, LetItSnow! said:
two very hot Junes would be unlikely.
Agreed especially with the transition to cold ENSO very different to last summer.
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1 hour ago, Cheshire Freeze said:
depends how quickly la nina develops. If we hover around neutral then a summer like 2018 is feasible.
Progression has really sped up in eastern tropical Pacific. I don’t think that’s particularly likely this year.
Nino1.2 (-0.6C)
Nino 3 (-0.2C)
Nino 3.4 (+0.3C)
Nino 4 (+0.8C)
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34 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:
Not really the place to discuss it so I think these posts should be moved - but my take on it is you don't neen European droughts even to see the absolute monstrous plumes that keep wafting out of North Africa
Obviously not but wetter ground and the evaporation of said moisture takes more energy which can be used for surface heating. When it’s bone dry it’s all being utilised. There’s a reason why we saw 40C that summer the drought was crucial given how marginal 40C was, it would not have occurred otherwise. I’m very unconvinced if what occurred in September last year would have produced 40C last July/August given these months were more unsettled.
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5 minutes ago, Derecho said:
2015, 2018, 2019 and 2022 s
You're imagining that certainly not 2015 and 2018. Maybe you're involving NAVGEM junk model. I believe 2022 was first time NWP was interested in 40C and it actually happened, I don't think ECMWF either once forecast 40C too think it had 38/39c tops.
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19 minutes ago, BlueSkies_do_I_see said:
40.3C might last about 2-4 years too. Definitely not 16.
Only 2-4 years? The likelihood is we do not see that topped this decade. You understate how extreme that was in midst of worst European drought in 500 years.
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17 hours ago, LetItSnow! said:
Interesting temperature anomaly map so far for the month. I don't know if this is relative to the monthly average up to the 15th or the full month, but interesting to see the anomalies highest across Scotland. Almost +6C anomalies in places!
The full month yes it correct the +6c is Cairngorm summit.
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7 minutes ago, SunSean said:
days. I should look at Summer hot days too, would be quite interesting! Maybe 30c or 28c plus days
I’ve done that for Heathrow just focusing on meteorological summer.
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2 hours ago, danm said:
Seeing as each year is becoming warmer, to finish below the 1991-2020 average takes some doing.
That's not quite correct each year is becoming warmer but the new norm is warmer. Annual temperature for Heathrow 1973-2023. What we tend to see is stable periods then jump-ups.
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5 hours ago, Catbrainz said:
It’s a sign of a warming world that we are facing a high spring CET despite unexceptional weather and synoptic set ups.
Don't really agree winds have often been southwesterly unusually so coming from well above SSTs, there has been a big shortage of northerly winds we had a little spell in April but apart from that no real cold weather. It has also been cloudy meaning nights have been mild for most.
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I’ve had no issues on my end.
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For being effectively in middle of London with shocking light pollution I could not believe what my eyes well mostly the camera saw, but it was still there. We have experienced a historic night make no doubt. So wonderful to see so many out too and sharing the wonder.
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3 hours ago, danm said:
always say August 2020 is the most oppressive UK heatwave I’ve experienced, because it featured 6 consecutive days above 33c here in London, with four of those six days above 35c
I agree, I also had 4 tropical nights during that heatwave living in inner London it was brutal. The house was a brick oven it was unbearable, so bad it compelled me to buy a portable AC unit so I could actually sleep. I’ll never forget that heatwave.
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There is not escaping trough influence into next week. We find ourselves wedged between two areas of high pressure in N Atlantic and Scandi… low pressure gets stuck in mud over UK. A lot of rain could fall in some places. That is reality.
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3 hours ago, WYorksWeather said:growing tendency to bring increasingly warm air in at 850hPa
I’d exercise caution I have noticed UKV sometimes gets carried away, general models supporting 9-10C 850hPa temps further SE not exceptional. I can’t see 30C being a possibility with the air mass, typically minimum for 30C it needs to be 12C, I recall in summer 2018 this was enough at times, but there were drought conditions, soils were very dry and of course we were not as early in year. Not just locally but what makes is even more unlikely to our near south, France also has very saturated soils, which is not usual for the time of year. I’d say we probably will be limited to 27-28C which of course is still very warm.
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19 minutes ago, Derecho said:
Their long range was based on EC output yesterday. The output is swinging a little further towards warmth but I still think it could revert back to unsettled and cooler next week.
Not sure there’s much ensemble support remains unchanged really from yesterday but of course further SE even average later in May is quite warm.
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1 hour ago, Derecho said:
Do you think the Scandi high could complicate things?
Quite sure we had that feature in recent weeks and all it did was slow weather fronts over us.
Things are trending more unsettled… week for 13-20th unsettled especially further south… the pattern that just keeps recurring.
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Dreadful BH monday here in London improving from tomorrow sadly this weather will not last good agreement for Atlantic westerlies to return next week, second half of May looking iffy at this stage. Notice the -NAO is creeping in more I think the SSW is still having an influence.
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1 hour ago, CryoraptorA303 said:
does here, more constant lightish rainfall than massive stormy bursts that you'd more expect to see in the autumn months.
Is that so? 10mm here in SE London… heavy pulses mixed in this rain.
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12 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:
they are the SSTS as things stand. It's weird that the SSTS are above average for this time of the year considering the dull and wet weather we have had so far, mind you this year could set the tone for future years.
Sometimes there’s too much focus on anomalies look at actual raw temps the waters surrounding us are as cool as they were in December although I do take it they will be rising not falling. The North Sea is still pretty cold as yet there has been not been a dramatic warming, it’s still relatively early in year. Any winds from north, NE especially would be cool probably for sometime yet for east.
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3 hours ago, WYorksWeather said:
given the impact of the very high SSTs around the UK
Exaggerative.
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What a bust!
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London direct hit! Best May thunderstorms since 2018 although not on that level, at height was flashing about every 10 seconds, surprising amount of thunder too perhaps it wasn’t entirely elevated. Very heavy rain too. I can’t say I recall seeing a thunderstorm Thames streamer before - certainly a novel event.
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Moans, ramps and banter
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
A hundred flood alerts people dismissed the wet weather but it has struck back with a vengeance.