[April 2024 C.E.T. and EWP contests]

These are quite cool my prediction we fall within 0.5C of 1991-2020 normal. I can’t see this month finishing remotely exceptional rather ordinary overall. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

2 hours ago, Derecho said:

Scorcher Yup I certainly wouldn't call it a spectacular change by any means.

If you could read correctly I was not making comment for UK… in Central Europe highs will collapse from 30C to 10C in a matter of a few days. The change is considerable but of course it begins from a very elevated position. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

33 minutes ago, Derecho said:

The EC keeps the coldest air further east whilst the GFS briefly turns showery from the north at times but is a settled run all in all.

It’s still chilly the EPS is resolute on a spell of below average temperatures which centres on Central Europe the strongest and most persistent since January. After a record warm first half in continental Europe this is a spectacular change.

 

[April 2024 C.E.T. and EWP contests]

52 minutes ago, The PIT said:

wouldn't put too much faith in the projection of cooler weather this has come a lot over the last few months and then quickly disappeared into more prolonged mild weather. If  a cool spell comes off the milder spell that followed as strong enough to offset easily.

nonsense this benign/cooler spell is confirmed beginning shortly. Not unusual for April.

[Moans, ramps and banter]

13 hours ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

The most recent seasonals are suggesting patterns consistent with the hottest summers on record

Are they? Majority develop La Niña over summer. CFS particularly strong with it. More wishcasting from yourself.

 

also new 

 

[Moans, ramps and banter]

2 hours ago, BlueSkies_do_I_see said:

One thing moving forward that is certain. We will see heat records broken almost every year. We've already seen a heat record in Jan (19.9C), Feb come within 0.1C of the record CET, and numerous date records set since, including yesterday's highest Min CET.

It’s quite normal to break daily records in an individual year they’re not particularly noteworthy well nothing compared to monthly record or all-time. We can’t forget we are seeing influence of strong El Niño, this increased global heating accelerates the number of warm records. 2025 is expected to be cooler than 2023 and 2024, so whilst UK might not see less records on balance it should evidently around Earth there will be less but of course still well outweighing cold.

[Moans, ramps and banter]

3 hours ago, danm said:

for London, the 1991-2020 period was 10% sunnier than 1961-1990, but only 3% wetter. 

Yes but some months increase is significant for example February… 30.2% increase on 1961-1990! Really significant it used to be our driest month up to 1981-2010 now it’s third driest. 
 

I produced this graph 1948-2023… 2024 was another very wet February with 85mm.

[Moans, ramps and banter]

14 minutes ago, Augusta Snow said:

wouldn’t say very wrong in my exact location which is what I said. 

Are you looking at map? Your location has not been drier than average. You live in a dry part of world.

[Moans, ramps and banter]

8 minutes ago, Augusta Snow said:

 

 SollyOlly I would say it’s only been the last 12 months that has been extremely wet. Before that here at least was dryer than normal for the 5 previous years at least. I do agree about the cooler periods becoming less. 

 

very wrong 

[Moans, ramps and banter]

Record warm air mass and we haven’t even scraped 20C in London

[Moans, ramps and banter]

2 hours ago, WYorksWeather said:

It's also the earliest in the year I think I've seen a feels like temperature higher than the actual

Where do you see that? Met Office has a 19C high in London but feel like temperature of 15C. The gusty breeze will make it feel cooler, I can’t see it feeling warmer. 

[Weather for Nordic countries]

Remarkable coldest night in almost 70 years in Sweden.

 

[Moans, ramps and banter]

1 minute ago, SunnyG said:

beginning of September was still summer, technically...

Well it’s not that’s not meteorological autumn, it was first summer since 2008 where either July or August failed to reach 30c in London. 

[Moans, ramps and banter]

9 hours ago, Wimbledon88 said:

Well at least us Londoners will be guaranteed a few blazing hot weeks during the summer. Only around the corner.,

I must have missed that last summer

[April 2024 C.E.T. and EWP contests]

8.8c and 89mm thanks, El Niño April’s tend to feature some colder N winds let’s see..

[UK Rain Is There Any Sign Of It Ending?]

No, there’s not.

[UK Rain Is There Any Sign Of It Ending?]

On 28/03/2024 at 10:55, kold weather said:

I'm pretty sure had this place been around in Mar 95 similar topics would have come up. We ended up having a classic summer that year.

Not sure about that March 1995 was sunniest on record at Heathrow a sign of things to come.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

EPS is very unsettled into April potentially wettest weather at this time of year since 2012.

London

Plymouth

 

Unbelievably rainy the past 18 months and for now it continues on and on…

[Moans, ramps and banter]

2 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

cold and snow stinks at this time of the year ..i just want winter to be over 

Your choice being in Canada  

[Worryingly Wet & Worryingly Sunless]

6 minutes ago, kold weather said:

and I think a little high to be just coincidence.

It’s not coincidence 

[Worryingly Wet & Worryingly Sunless]

48 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

There were a few dull ones in there- notably 1993 and 1998

Perhaps more mixed further north at Heathrow with 1991-2020 normals in brackets. 1998 the cloudiest summer of 1990s still above 600 sunshine hours! 
 

1993:

June 224.2 (208)

July 174.6 (218) 

August 219.4 (202)

Total: 618.2 hours  

1998:

June 158.4 (208)

July 184.6 (218)

August 262.6 (202)

Total: 605 hours 

[Worryingly Wet & Worryingly Sunless]

4 minutes ago, reef said:

It'll be much higher for sure. In my own figures 1991-2020 is 1599 hours and 1994-2023 is already 1629 hours.

I was speaking more for summer. Maybe for your own, and well your location is not particularly representative. 1990s were sunniest decade in London.

[Worryingly Wet & Worryingly Sunless]

Quite sure we will see a decline in sunshine hours with 2001-2030 averages… we’ll lose the sunny 90s summers.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Signal for below average temperatures next weekend. Arctic air. 

[Is 110F (43C) possible in the UK?]

No, I categorically do not think this is possible on current climate might that change by 2100? Possibly. The main challenge is latitude and surrounding by relatively much cooler water. Realistically it would only happen in SE or EA. I feel example of Lytton, BC is given as reinventing what’s possible but there’s not a single site with similar geography to that in UK. There is not an exceptional foehn site in southern UK. The most notable foehn sites are seen in Scotland but of course it’s never going to be be as hot up there.