Daniel*
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Posts posted by Daniel*
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One thing for sure it’s going to feel markedly colder after all this much milder weather. The skiers in Scotland will be delighted by outlook.
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7 minutes ago, raz.org.rain said:
Going into March and I reckon we'll start to see the first plumes turning up in the ensembles, who knows how long it'll be before they have enough support to verify.
What person is looking for plume set ups in March? I think that’s odd given the climatology.
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34 minutes ago, raz.org.rain said:
quite a few people insisting that a cold March is a possibility, they seemingly haven't learned from the performance of the models so far.
Expecting the same thing again and again will only get you so far. An early final warming is gaining likelihood in early March, it doesn't bode well for a warm or settled March. Of course in spring the frequency of northerly and easterly winds are at their greatest.
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2018 of course for the novelty factor I'm not looking for warm weather in March. Plenty of time for that.
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1 hour ago, LetItSnow! said:
has been so mild and the trees are so advanced I can’t see it being a good thing to get a freak warm spell only to have a cold snap afterwards. Hoping for quite a bog standard, changeable March and save the warmth until April.
Are they? Most trees are totally bare no buds. Still very much a winter scene. Pic I took yesterday.
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Unbelievable wrt AO… I’ve never seen such a huge model bust for polar blocking in mid/late Feb, something that had total cross model agreement only a matter of days ago.
A week ago!
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4 minutes ago, Rain All Night said:
average score there looks to be higher
The average is taken over a month I’m focusing on past week all models have slumped but GFS has not.
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GFS been best performing model at day 10. Probably highlights how poor NWP is doing as a collective.
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Clearly if we were not looking at a highly disruptive event in stratosphere, it would be fair to call winter over but as GFS 12z shows while the cold misses us mostly it has a radical influence on upper patterns. Predictability what little of it will be tumbling in NWP. We’ve been thrown a lifeline whether we seize it remains to be confirmed.
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Very blocky run with hallmarks of an imminent or ongoing major SSW.
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The start of a colder cluster in late Feb in GEFS.
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Good demonstration GFS 18z with right amplified pattern how quickly things can change in terms of cold air availability. This is a difference of 5 days.
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The UK has not had a real issue with drought for over a decade now in fact it is very overdue a series of dry years, last time it began with dry but very cold winter of 2009/10, 2010 and 2011 were very dry years, then we saw wettest April on record in 2012 and awful washout summer which totally eliminated long term drought. No doubt with extreme heat we have been seeing although often brief, we see the landscape suffer on surface but the bottom line against a wetter backdrop this has softened impacts to groundwater and reservoirs so impacts have not been severe. Summer droughts become severe against a long term dry background as was seen in summer of 1976 after 1975 was also very dry year. If we do experience drought issues/ water stress in summer 2024, I think we need to look to water companies very critically there is no way after all these above average rainfall month after month, there is clearly a lack of infrastructure we need to build more reservoirs to collect this rain water for a growing population.
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2 minutes ago, CoventryWeather said:drier warmer summers
Your drier summers are not supported by the data. The summers are visibly wetter than 1980s & 1990s the latter especially featured prolonged anticyclonic periods, this has become less regular while we have seen some great summers with notably prolonged dry conditions (2018 and 2022 for example) they have not really been representative of the modern summer.
England summer rainfall amount:
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Great the timeframe less great!
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1 hour ago, WYorksWeather said:
I'm still quite pessimistic about any looking further ahead into March. The reason is that the lack of any cold to work with means that we really have to imagine we're 2-3 weeks ahead in the year in terms of temperature. The temperature over the Northern Hemisphere is already more characteristic of a typical late February or early March. By the time we get a major SSW, and even with a QTR of say a week, and then assuming it works out in our favour as far as blocking and cold goes (already essentially granting that we get a near perfect dice roll), at the absolute earliest you're looking at the last few days of February.
You say that but Northern Europe/Scandinavia is expecting coldest winter since 2009/10. The deep cold has been persistent in upper Europe, potentially accessible to wider Europe things have just not aligned at least yet. Again an illustration in a warming world… persistent cold anomalies can occur regionally. I personally don’t see the value in looking at entire Northern Hemisphere you need to look at areas with relative proximity to UK where the cold originates to our north and east. I don’t see why for example a very warm Canadian winter means much to us.
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6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:
Yes, the way the strat and trop have been in step this year, it has been quite difficult to tease out what is cause and what is effect. Should the split vortex SSW happen, I would expect a very quick trop response, even to the extent of both impacts appearing to happen pretty much simultaneously.
As said the AO is already on side, I think it’s a good indicator to a quick response. Much less possible interference and the need to break down stubborn +AO.
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3 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:
The ECM isn't showing a QTR, best estimates place the SSW on the 18th possibly 19th February, that would be an instantaneous trop response which unfortunately, isn't possible.
It’s possible the trop pattern can be already primed and be a catalyst to major SSW and very rapid downwell they are ultimately related. So I would say the ECM 12z is QTR in my opinion.
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10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
are you confident that the split on that run is sufficient to stop the Canadian segment hurtling back across the Atlantic after a very short period ?
Well maybe I’m remembering wrong but I’m pretty sure Feb 2018 split looked very similar to this with one shard in NW Russia and other in eastern Canada. Of course 2018 was not the most durable but the issue I don’t believe was TPV it was NAO blocking becoming too west and retrogressing too much… maybe too much free rein is a bad thing. I think we had too much of a good thing then.
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Well this is the chart of winter… the split which appears favourable on GFS, is our best shot of getting a significant late winter blast.
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7 hours ago, Downburst said:
It's interesting you think the position of these transient anomalies have such a linear response. It may be as simple as measuring wind flows from a particular direction. It is much more complex than that. In any case I was responding to the fact that there is a north and south Atlantic and trying to remove some doubt on a simple geographical fact.
Frankly I don’t know what you’re talking about we have been seeing long drawn southwesterly winds from subtropical Atlantic which are much above average waters. The direction has absolutely everything to do with it, as I’ll say again SSTs are near normal to our west if wind blows from west it wouldn’t be excessively mild.
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
T168 looks rather slidey there, it can still be possible to see a snow event from an unremarkable cold set up. Low heights/thicknesses help.