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Daniel*

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Posts posted by Daniel*

    Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    People follow output too black and white the situation is fluid and finely poised looking at EPS there does seem to be appetite for NAO to go more negative mid month onwards and so colder weather has potential to lock in. Quite possible we could be looking at a cold February the coldest since 2018, albeit with a very mild beginning the possibility is there and I don’t think tiny. El Niño winters are more backloaded on average.

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    Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    20 minutes ago, Methuselah said:

    In the medium term, yes; in the longer term, no. But then it never does, that far out.

    I think some need to use some common sense, if there is significant uncertainty for the period around 8th this will have a knock on effect further on. While models might be generally showing the same thing after the period of high uncertainty it might be read totally wrong. 

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, BarnetBlizzard said:

    I've noticed that wedge of high pressure to our northwest around Iceland being suggested on a few runs. If we can get the wedge there then the low pressure from the Atlantic gets forced south-east and it could bring in easterly winds for a time. 

    Was shown on ECM 12z yesterday but dropped overnight. Clearly NWP are toying with something they don’t yet have a good grip on. Likely MJO  related I’d say. 

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    Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, TillyS said:

    From run to run the high may sometimes displace or weaken but the persistence of this Iberian high is something we cannot dismiss with mere wishful thinkin

    I’m just reading the output how you perceive it is another matter. These are the very basics as far as I’m concerned. Let me post this again. There’s an already quite a robust signal for a fall of pressure in Iberian peninsula, wetter weather from ~10th Feb there is no wishful thinking about that. Let these charts speak for themselves. 
     

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    Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Daniel*

    23 minutes ago, TillyS said:

    Neither the control nor the operational get much below 0C the whole run, and the mean is barely -5C out in far flung FI. How is that ‘the greatest opportunity for a significant cold etc. etc.’ when we had genuinely spectacular charts 3 weeks ago? The ECM threw out some stellar charts, which it has to be said downgraded as they always seem to do.

    Perhaps you and others will be right about gut feeling and luck but in terms of the model outputs themselves, the evidence isn’t really supportive. For now. This may change, although upstream teleconnnections haven’t really proved much more productive so far this winter.

    This is unfair… cold weather was identified in January weeks in advance the timing of onset was also correct how it unravelled is another discussion the MJO lost amplitude this was not foreseen by models at beginning, but to say the teleconnections have been useless is totally wrong it helps give a broad picture not a back yard perspective. It doesn’t tell you if you’re going to see a big dumping of snow. I’d rather say you go by gut than anything else, it’s what experience taught you? Well weather forecasting does not work like that that’s not forecasting. Scientific explanations have been outlined you’re the one purposely ignoring them as junk.

    • Like 18

    Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    14 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    I think coldies are generally worn out by the winter so far and are now very cynical and dubious of any promising outputs at that range .

    What will be said though February will be ultimate test of seasonal models and the winter really as a whole. It was this month the seasonal models went to town with potential for prolonged cold spell and more durable northern blocking. Not other months where cyclonic Atlantic dominated weather was more favoured and that has verified in most part. Hopefully late winter can restore some faith in NWP which has taken a knock. 

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    Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

    if that’s a good chart to you then you’re very easy to please 😁. 192 and 216 are not great , for Scotland maybe . But it’s just wishy washie cold all very 😞. Don’t take this the wrong way by the way I’m just saying how it is . 

    You’re making a serious mistake just focusing on UK. Look at bigger picture ECM 12z is best run in 2 weeks? Trop vortex vacates from Greenland, euro heights eroding to south, heights opening up in North Atlantic possibly MJO related. It shows it doesn’t require spectacular blocking to drastically changes our fortunes. 

    • Like 9

    Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, mulzy said:

    Very poor outlook - models have backtracked from showing any early push of cold - any cold is now day 10+.  The MetOffice long ranger gives us hope for something in the second half of February which is still out range of the NWP.

    The met added this today, evidently this is rather unclear in guidance at present but they must be seeing something. Drivers look more supportive of colder weather patterns in next few weeks in context of dying +IOD.. robust eQBO, El Niño starting to moderate and more climatological support for back loaded cold. Only time will tell but I doubt models have captured this period very well especially with evolving MJO in a slow orbit in phase 7, I do think it’s unlikely we see something significant in first 10 days of February but I do think the month as a whole is still quite open. 

    “There is a chance colder conditions could then become established more widely during the first full week of February, with increased chance of wintry weather, especially northern and central UK”

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