Daniel*

January 11

I think this is going to *not* (tired eyes) turn out great but there’s a notable adjustment over polar field changes in strat adds more complexity.

January 11

Approaching Atlantic low more elongated and less developed compared to 18z looks like a snow maker in south.

January 10

GFS is a throwback to some of those 1980s winters an active but cold pattern targeting central and southern parts. Very intrigued about next week and potential for high impact winter weather.

January 10

Models haven’t exactly pushed the cold back, even if it’s not pretty… cold air in place by 15th on GFS & UKMO. Clearly models will struggle resolving how this is thrown about.

January 10

GFS better than previous run better ridging into Greenland the 18z collapsed blocking very quickly and more sharper dig to cold trough into N UK the deep Scandi trough being quite influential there.

January 10

Absurd difference at day 5 between UKMO & GFS, if we thought 00z was going to give a clear answer we would be mistaken. Both are consistent one is consistently wrong.

January 10

1 hour ago, GokouD said:

These GFS runs seem to be pushing an insane amount of cold down into the US, I bet they're cheering for it over there. It seems a bit OTT to be true though...

No, major cold outbreak on way in coming days.

January 9

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

It's not going to sustain though ,not with a raging +AO ..

Still, I'm not sure if GFS has been high on something for the last few days or alternatively it's slamming Euro into the ground...

Jet stream is markedly south and raging AO it’s not. Heights rises to north can form in these stations.

January 9

According to EPS the south is well within the envelope of disruptive winter weather. It’s growing increasingly likely a big thermal gradient will be seen into western Europe. Threat of significant snowfall on cold boundary growing in UK next week.

January 9

Just now, Ali1977 said:

We need a huge 192 to keep the moral up in here !!

Will be shocked if it’s not good. Looks like a great run better than UKMO.

January 8

Impressed by depth of cold to north on offer from ECM 12z? Well Arctic sea ice extent is highest in 21 years. Very unlike 21st century.

January 8

I would be feeling very good at the moment if I lived in the northern half of country, Scotland especially seems to see a proper spell of winter weather, very cold with snow. Further south I’m feeling a bit concerned with Iberian ridge and absence of strong blocking upstream compared to last week it is obvious I have seen less favourable changes in EPS, the cold spell very much could evade the south altogether.

January 8

UKMO looking good, day 5-6 only now for all talk of day 10 of course it will not be immediately wintry but the stage needs to be set, the Arctic high emerging from pacific side is proving a great help with pulling up Greenland high.

January 7

ECM 12z will be one of the most crucial runs so far - critically important we see a movement. Buckle up folks

January 7

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

I was referring to the higher pressure over Iberia. Makes for a less amplified pattern.

It seems more help than hindrance supporting WAA

January 7

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

GFS for me looks less amplified this run, we shall see.

no, the opposite. Very clear.

old

January 6

Yeah warm… 21C is a fresh day in July in London. I suspect with 2014-2023, July has gone down a bit it was a very high peak, but June has increased further.

January 6

14 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

In complete honesty if you're taking things literally at t300 then you're setting yourself up for a bumpy ride, the computer models pick up on a trend and tend to over react to a signal then level out somewhat and its a process of two or three times it goes back and forth but the signal is strong. Northerly blocking and cold air moving south.

Leave the detail out for now

that’s true but there’s a major difference in outcomes between fleeting northerly cold winds and something more sustained. I just feel it is important to stress and express the uncertainty, recent runs from EPS have deteriorated and it’s not just the OP. Confidence is low.

Jan 16th… Jan 20th

January 6

If one based it on how EPS evolves it will be turning unsettled and mild from Atlantic, the substantial majority bring +NAO it’s not in my nature to be a downer rather opposite, but people need to be mindful right now. A big weighting in NWP is having a major questioning moment. I’ve known EPS to get wrong scent before let’s hope it’s one of those instances. The situation is complex not only in trop but strat.

January 6

1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:

That.. looks pretty good to me? -NAO out to the end of the run with residual heights left to the north of the UK?

I’m not sure anyone is expecting a sustained strong -NAO without some sort of waxing & waning.

It a significant decline from recent days both forecast for Jan 17th the newest on left and right from 12z of 4th. The blocking signal to NW has weakened it’s not a good trend and see stormy area across pond which further tries to erode. We see this a lot with Greenland blocking sadly as we get closer… I’m not saying it’s over with, but these are not giving me encouragement at all.

January 6

EPS again heading in wrong direction losing -NAO as it did in 00z, I think it’s more than small concern GEFS do not offer superior guidance. It was EPS which first advertised a potential change towards end of week 1 of Jan, let’s hope it doesn’t indicate an end as well.

January 6

Think some concern is starting to creep in that’s the 3rd consecutive poor ECM op, the US snow storm could potentially throw a spanner in works if we do not see a more significant block near Greenland.

January 6

I know a certain John moans about lack of sea ice, it’s currently above all years in the past 19 (2005). Of course if we use 1981-2010 normal it’s still well below average, nonetheless this is unusual on recent normals where Arctic climate has warmed most fast. They say even 10 year averages in some situations over 30 years, are more appropriate in Arctic that’s how fast these areas have warmed. How this boils back to models will we are seeing significant cold to N, GFS 18z is a good example potent Arctic front…. reduced CAA modification from less open water in North Atlantic similarly in Baltic Sea as we look to our northeast seeing most significant “early” freeze up since 2010, winds from these regions are expected to be colder increasing likelihood of temperatures cold enough to support snowfall.

January 4

The fact the GFS still ends up here is quite something, the saying all roads lead to Rome, it might be apt here that would be a very rare situation.

January 4

GFS improves CAA again a pool of -10C uppers on Monday, for an easterly that only gets going I find this quite impressive evidently the legacy of extreme cold in NE Europe is to thank. While pressure is high this should be enough to support widespread light/moderate snow showers in East Anglia and SE England.

Sign In

Forums

Blogs

Gallery

Events

Learn About Weather and Meteorology

Community guides

Posts posted by Daniel*