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Posts posted by Daniel*
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4 hours ago, raz.org.rain said:
Part of me wonders if this run of SSWs is related to El Niño conditions and warmth being shunted into the Arctic. Considering everyone keeps banging on about how global temps will cool down with La Niña, presumably this will include the Arctic. Less anomalous warmth in the Arctic would drastically reduce the possibility of SSWs if I understand right.
No this is first El Niño winter since 2018/19… La Niña has been dominant. The Arctic 80N+ hasn’t been abnormally warm either in 2024 so far. There isn’t a good correlation on poles, tenuous at best.
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Fallen here to 7,5C here in central ish London with cold light rain this is really quite dire. Heating on.
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7 hours ago, richie3846 said:
I've saved a screenshot shot of B87's calculation table for future reference. Very useful. I'm thinking a lot of the ongoing discussions about sunshine over the years, may have been unintentionally misleading and pessimistic because of this discrepancy. I'd say this topic needs bringing to the forefront from time to time, to remind people of the adjustments, and to check their sources of information for raw or adjusted data, where that is possible.
It might not be relevant or applicable to other stations the Heathrow sun recorder was changed in late 2005. From Campbell Stokes recorder to automatic Kipp & Zonen sensor, it’s believed to marginally record less sun.
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Today looks coolest day in CET area not in north of it though, chilly night and daytime temps looking more suppressed than expected.
E.g. Rothamsted 0.7C low… 10.1C high… 5.4
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On course to be dullest April in 26 years (1998) in London. The east has definitely faired much worse than west. Miserable, nondescript month really.
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35 minutes ago, raz.org.rain said:
have gone as far as to suggest that there'll be no overall cooling post El Niño, which would be the first time that has happened.
These people should be ignored.
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Horror show pattern into early May on tonight’s GFS 18z…. takes one back to 2007-2012. The N Atlantic/Greenland blocking is difficult to shake off in spring with polar vortex out the picture.
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25 minutes ago, danm said:
Low daytime maximas such as this are not that uncommon in April.
They are much more notable later in month that’s the point. Using the point of 2018 an exceptional spring certainly demonstrates something. If we see a daily record with over half a century of data, it’s noteworthy at the very least.
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13 minutes ago, danm said:
Low daytime maximas such as this are not that uncommon in April. It's significantly below average, but at a time of year when wild swings in weather is common, extremes of both cold and warm can happen.
Just done for Heathrow, preliminary high of 9C it’s tied lowest max on record for date with 1973. This is exceptional.
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26 minutes ago, richie3846 said:
No it's not exceptional. The majority of Aprils have days in single figures. I just browsed weather data for Brize Norton and the vast majority of years over the last 15, have days below 10c. This is just a normal April day even if people don't like it, it's normal had happens most years I'm afraid. Let's not get preferences get in the way of facts.
It’s April 22nd…. The facts are your wrong.
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10 hours ago, Scorcher said:LetItSnow! I'm not denying it's going to be chilly but one poster in particular is keen to emphasise how exceptionally bad this is going to be- so I stand by my hyperbole comment.
If you’re talking to me at least @ me thanks. In what way I have done that? All I’m saying temperatures are indicated to be well below average for late April, no one has mention snow and freezing temperatures and what can be expected at this time of year. You said about me being antagonistic, I think you should look at yourself, all you do is purposely try to undermine messaging, if anything cool is mentioned, it’s a repeated pattern from you. It’s as if it upsets you personally, I find it very odd it is just the weather.
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2 minutes ago, Frigid said:
A remarkable switch to something cooler, this would've been a notable cold spell in winter. I wonder what triggered this response..
Still seeing drips of SSW which occurred earlier in March this could be what’s responsible, it was a significant event so of course has potential for extended influence. I don’t believe it’s result of MJO that’s been in COD. Perhaps weakening El Niño also a factor nothing we could get on side during winter remained strong.
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25 minutes ago, WYorksWeather said:
It all depends on the averaging used
Well the data suggest otherwise also signalled below on 1961-1990, below is Birmingham next week looks even cooler than this week, you must also consider the average for further in April is warmer, so using overall mean is not wise.
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4 hours ago, Frigid said:Mild days in the mid to high teens likely.
It seems some are in denial. The mean for Manchester has highs barely in double figures for most part. It’s certainly a cool outlook with winds frequently coming from northerly direction with cool air aloft. A bit milder this weekend with high covering UK briefly, then it looks to re-centre further NW. it’s a very poor outlook if you’re looking for warmth. If only if it was winter comes to mind.
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2 hours ago, Derecho said:
Scorcher Yup I certainly wouldn't call it a spectacular change by any means.
If you could read correctly I was not making comment for UK… in Central Europe highs will collapse from 30C to 10C in a matter of a few days. The change is considerable but of course it begins from a very elevated position.
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33 minutes ago, Derecho said:
The EC keeps the coldest air further east whilst the GFS briefly turns showery from the north at times but is a settled run all in all.
It’s still chilly the EPS is resolute on a spell of below average temperatures which centres on Central Europe the strongest and most persistent since January. After a record warm first half in continental Europe this is a spectacular change.
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52 minutes ago, The PIT said:
wouldn't put too much faith in the projection of cooler weather this has come a lot over the last few months and then quickly disappeared into more prolonged mild weather. If a cool spell comes off the milder spell that followed as strong enough to offset easily.
nonsense this benign/cooler spell is confirmed beginning shortly. Not unusual for April.
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2 hours ago, BlueSkies_do_I_see said:
One thing moving forward that is certain. We will see heat records broken almost every year. We've already seen a heat record in Jan (19.9C), Feb come within 0.1C of the record CET, and numerous date records set since, including yesterday's highest Min CET.
It’s quite normal to break daily records in an individual year they’re not particularly noteworthy well nothing compared to monthly record or all-time. We can’t forget we are seeing influence of strong El Niño, this increased global heating accelerates the number of warm records. 2025 is expected to be cooler than 2023 and 2024, so whilst UK might not see less records on balance it should evidently around Earth there will be less but of course still well outweighing cold.
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3 hours ago, danm said:
for London, the 1991-2020 period was 10% sunnier than 1961-1990, but only 3% wetter.
Yes but some months increase is significant for example February… 30.2% increase on 1961-1990! Really significant it used to be our driest month up to 1981-2010 now it’s third driest.
I produced this graph 1948-2023… 2024 was another very wet February with 85mm.
SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on
in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion
Posted
Third wettest day of year here 17mm still raining. A really miserable spring so far and we thought 2023 was bad.