JOPRO

Surely this is a barttlet set up? We seem trapped in disgustingly mild air, with that dam high pressure eating up our winter. If it looks like a pig,smells like a pig and goes oink.......!!

Reasons to be positive as a cold lover :- 1. We have just about lived through one of the mildest December's on record, so we prob wont see one as mild for some time (We Hope!!!) 2. Its only December 3.We are currently heading into a deep solar minimum, so we could see some coldish winters coming up over the next few years, even if this winter does turn out to be a mild wash out. 4.For those who haven't seen snow since 2013 the law of averages suggests you will, and a for all those who think we wont see snow again at low levels we heard all this during some of those dire winters in the late 80s and 90s, as we have seen since then we can still get snow at low levels!! 5. Remember for every 1988/89 ,2013/14 1997/98 and November/December 2015 extreme mild winter we can also talk about 1947,1963,1987,1991,2009,2010,2013 cold spells, so in our climate we can get both extreme mild and cold in winter. If we are in a mild period at the moment then so be it, but there is a good chance that a some point we will enter another cold period. 6. Dont get to hung up on the models as they can and do change. 7. Its only the weather. 8.Its Christmas, who knows next one we may have a screaming easterly setting up and we wont be talking about dafs coming out ! Am sure you could draw a list of negatives up as well, but that's not the point, as I have said before this type of weather kills the mod thread as most peoples are looking for a cold and snow fix in winter. I miss the buzz and expectation of the build up to a cold spell as much as any cold weather lover, but am old enough to realise it isn't always goanna happen. So don't get to hung up try and follow the more knowledgeable posters and if someone's posts upset or anger you hit the ignor button. Merry Christmas to you all and your families.

Well that was a disgustingly mild day. Glad it's over only problem is we have more to come! Yuck.

Only plus point over the next couple of days is I will be so busy with work I won't really notice these mild temperatures, I couldn't care less about them as they are not what Ian looking for in the winter months. Come on coldies think how sweet it will be when we do get cold and snow,it will be all worth it if we get a good easterly in Jan/Feb then this mild dross will be a distant memory.

Think we are doing better round here for frosts than we did during winter 2013/14 that's if you can call that a winter, by my book we have managed 3. You know its not going to be good news as a cold lover in winter when you log on in the morning and see the first few post of the day in the mod thread are from Knocker!!! Still on to the next round of runs. No Surrender to the Euro High! You can take our snow and frost but you will never take our winter!!!!!!!

Four words to describe the current outlook FILTHY,WET, MILD, S**T. Only plus point is by this time next week we will all have only a few days work left till Christmas, and will have got those foul V.Mild days on Wednesday and Thursday out the way. What a waste this set up is in Winter!

LOL, I am surprised he hasn't crawled out from the woodwork.... We cold lovers need him now like a hole in the head!! Pity his pet theory was massively debunked from about January 2009 onwards.

At what point are we in barttlet set up?

Looking foward to the mild uppers being forecast cast for the 16-18th being downgraded as we get nearer the time,same way -15 850s do when the are set to hit the uk at longer a range. Then the mild rampers can throw some toys out the pram!! Seriously bet we only end up with +5 uppers and more relentless rain. The set up is wasted in December the same way a Scandinavia high and northern blocking is in July and August.

To quote Victor Meldrew ''Please for the love of god no!!!!!'' At least we had the winter of 95/96 and 96/97 before that mild love in!!

Well great looks like any cold weather has disappeared from the charts like a fart in a mild south westerly wind!!! Am sure the 'told you so brigade' will be out in force on the mod thread today, back to 1 page a day on that thread it is then with knocker posting relentless charts showing long draw south westerlys and talking about a mammoth crop of daffs , at this rate they will have gone over by the spring!! Well the search for cold starts again, still lots to play for, only 9th December! Chin up Coldies we will have our day!!!!!!

This is one point that I was thinking about the other day I know a few member on here say that cold spells can no longer pop up out the blue because we have new long range forecasting tools at hand. But we haven't had a decent cod spell in winter since 2010, my feeing on this is that these new tools haven't had a proper test yet. What are peoples thoughts on this knowing how dam hard it can be to forecast cold and snow in this countries at more than even 24hrs notice at times?

It did in 2010! Bout time we are due another one! From what I remember the models picked that spell up deep in fi and ran with it the all the way down to 0hrs with no major wobbles. Maybe some one can confirm that? as I was just a viewer not a member then.

One mans Outlier is another mans trend setter...! Am sure the 12hrs will be different again, this time showing a beasterly........

Models all over the place again, every run I look at seems to be different, expect GFS 06Hrs run to take a different track again from the 00Hrs. As a cold lover confusion breeds opportunity!

Right taking the kids out for a meal and panto, I want upgrades to cold from the 12hrs runs please when I get back and that means you as well ECM!!

Lots of bird poo!!!

On to the afternoon runs, nothing to see here for us cold lovers am sure the 06hrs run has missing ballon data......

Not only do I detest this mild crap in winter but it Also kills the mod thread as we only get 2 pages a day if we are lucky! Used to enjoy coming back from work and catching up on that thread, now It's all over before dinner and I end up having to watch I'm a celebrity with the wife! Bring on some cold and snow not this wet mild diarrhea we keep getting from the bowls of that dam euro high.

Had a read thought he mod thread from late November/ early December 2009 last night. Was really interesting to see peoples take on the models at that point of time with the benefit of hindsight. Was talk then after a warm November of patterns being locked in and the winter was going to be a mild one, and we still had Ian Brown on here peddling his ''even larger teapot'' theory! which was soon proved to be a load off guff. I have taken heart from reading that old mod thread as it goes to show what can turn up. Now I know we have new long rang forecasting tools at out disposal but we don't know how well they would have handled set ups like 2009 and 2010, My personal thoughts are we haven't had a decent cold spell to test them out yet and to see how well the pick up signals for cold spells in FI. Look forward to hearing Steve Murr's (aka the Chosen one..........!) take on the current signals for a pattern change mid month, that's if he is aloud off the naughty step yet!?

They are such fickle beasts!!

I have been following this site since the Dec 2009 Cold spell, while not an expert I think this will pan out one of several ways :- 1. Backtrack from the GFS to the ECM Zonal Solution 2. A Halfway house IE UK High (how many time have we seen this happen when the two are at logger heads) 3. ECM gets on board with the GEM and GFS. 4. One we have seen many times, The GFS picks up the signal runs with it for a number of runs in FI then drops it only for it to remerge in a more reliable timeframe or reappear again in FI. As a cold lover in winter that Scandi hi is now within 195Hrs on Gfs! When was the last time we had one modeled get that close? As good as the ECM is lets not for get the 'That ECM Moment in Dec 2012' Still much to play for. Lets hope we don't get a 'That GFS Moment in Dec 2015!) Just my thought on models don't shoot me down am still learning!

Hi, I have a question, was watching a documentary I had skyplused over the weekend about the nuclear arms race, one section of the programme was about the largest nuclear weapon ever tested ( 1500 times the size of the atom bombs dropped at the end WWll,and 10 times the power of every conventional bomb dropped during the war combined!) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tsar_Bomba . Now what caught my eye was where this was detonated was in the far north of Russia on an island on almost the same latitude as Svalbard. Was wondering did this have any effect on the polar vortex? What really caught my eye was the fact that the test was conducted on 30th October 1962 and we all know what happen during the uk winter of 62/63. So was wondering was one of our coldest winter the result of a man made SSW?? From what I can read the fireball from the explosion rose to at least 45,000 feet and the core of the explosion was an estimated 150,000,000 degrees Fahrenheit and the actual radioactive mushroom cloud rose so high it went beyond the stratosphere. Would be interested to know what you guys think??

Fond memories of some heavy snow when I was at uni there back in 2003!

February 1991 keeps cropping up in my mind, didn't that cold spell start from a UK High at the end of January that drifted over to Scandi? Not certain maybe some of the more knowledgeable members could look this up. But surely having high pressure over the UK gives it a chance of drifting East or North west? Or worse case of you are a cold lover this time of year south? Its going to go somewhere after the uk so what is the form horse?