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ptow

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    Model thread discussion - cold spell looming

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, markw2680 said:

    Come on people you can’t write off the cold coming back with a vengeance just yet, it’s Tuesday morning unless I’m mistaken? And yet we are saying it’s all over for the weekend! That’s 4-5 days away, a lot can change in the next day or two.

    I expect the milder air to try and push in over the weekend but will probably only make it into the west before slowly the cold in the east will beat it back again. At least there’s a chance of snow coming in from the west

    You are right a lot can change. On friday I was expecting 4 ice days and 5+cm of snow. Reality - 1 ice day and a dusting

    • Like 2

    Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    28 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

    Morning all latest GFS beginning to show stronger northern blocking keeping the very cold/cold

    north easterly going.My take after initial low pressure to the southeast on Sunday bringing some 

    snow,a mostly dry Cold/very cold period with Atlantic lows forced further south due to increased 

    pressure rise to the north.

     

    Am I missing something. the GFS06z has sw winds and postive 850's right up the country by next Thurs?

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    38 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

    Gfs @150...about where THE ukmo. would be should it run there..a sweep of polar continental airflow...into our shores anyone taking issues with suc h synops should consider taking up chess or some ####....inter flow engagement from the East in early Feb...and we have people sulking....drop me out!!!!

    gfs-1-150.png

    gfs-0-150.png

    Isn’t that-4 850 in the south? Would that still be cold?

    Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    20 minutes ago, Continental Climate said:

    Why has the thread been called the beast anyway? A beast is what we got in feb/March 2018 that has not once been modelled this time round. What we will likely get is 850s of -6 -9, which will likely be good enough for many areas that have yet too see a flake but we will NOT be getting a beast atm. 

    There have been quite a few runs that have shown a true beast -15 850’s as well 

    Model output discussion 24/01/21

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    12 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

    I think he's just raised expectations

    Looking at the GEFS ensemble diagram for the midlands, a strong cluster is now growing for a sharp drop in upper air temps next weekend. But there's still a few members that won't align in a convenient way for cold.

    image.thumb.png.5236274d4d44a64891adc464491b7240.png

    Yes, the op could easily swing back next run. There is some support for this easterly, but similarly support for other outcomes. We have been here many times before

    • Like 2

    Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

    in Yorkshire & E.England Weather Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, bazookabob said:

    Yes here's hoping for an event we can all benefit from in the near future! Incidentally I drove through Horsforth a couple of weeks ago when it was buried in snow on a Friday lunchtime, North Leeds is a good spot for snow in winters like this one! 

    Yes, some really good elevation. Family member lives right at the top and often sends pictures. He can be frozen/snowed in even when Horsforth Town Centre is slushy. Lucky bugger! One day I might make the move but too far to go to footy

    • Like 1
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