ptow
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Posts posted by ptow
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56 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:
There's a lot of good in the short range on this model with sub-zero temps, however the back edge of this model is simply incredible for us coldies. Potential for it to deepen as well.
Barely below freezing for the south at night time. Guess it will feel cold in the wind. Would be interested to know what the day maxes are. Its also nearly March by that point so might feel quite pleasant out of the wind.
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1 minute ago, Matthew. said:
Really hoping we can squeeze a March 2003, 2012 out but I can’t see it happening with the colder pattern probably arriving. I suppose you never know though
Yes but down here even the 2013 event was a non event so for me I am done for winter 2017. Onto summer for me
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1 hour ago, Snowy L said:
I think people forget how cold it can get in March. If you're saying first 2 weeks of March is too late then you should also be saying last 2 weeks of December is too early. The reality in both cases is a Scandinavian high will be bitterly cold.
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No, it most likely won’t be. Most in mid winter are not bitterly cold let alone March.
Of course it can happen but 9.9 times out of 10 it will feel cold but with temps well above freezing.
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35 minutes ago, Stuie W said:
I will have you know, after tonight`s output, it is 9 days away just to buck the trend...
Good point
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maxes of 2/3 seem high bearing in mind the uppers of -12/13. What sort of uppers do we need to get subzero maxima?
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6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:
It must be really confusing for newbies, when UKMO's faxes look like that one does, while at the same time the Beeb's website (and the latest BBC forecast) is predicting +7C on Sunday...I can't see the -11C uppers shown on most, if not all, of the latest model-output, yielding such high maxima...+3C perhaps?
I think as a rule of thumb you deduct 10 from the uppers in early feb. Anyone confirm?
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11 hours ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:
Nick , this year the mjo, along with billion £££££ of computers, and the most knowledgeable of forecasters, the weather has made a mug out of everyone, forecasts jumping about as much as the computers, one minute it's a mild southwesterly for the next 10 days, the next day it's a cold 4 wks from the east, based on the mjo and strat forcings, it's the 4th winter on the trot now without any snow more than 1cm deep.
Just goes to show how little we know about the weather.
Let's see how we get on in the next few wks but I have so little faith in any forecast it means absolutely nothing this evening to see us in no man's land on the mods because in a few days time things will look completely different, probably right after the met office rewrite there long term forecasts.
Much preferred it when ones didn't try to predict the weather more than 3 days in advance because that way people keep there dignity and hopes aren't continually dashed.
Yes, the weather has made mugs of all of those mentioned however it's still managed to give us a bang on average boring winter with little of interest Lol
They should of stuck with that forecast. always a safe bet for th uk
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10 hours ago, Rob Walker said:
Not often in February I remember seeing a moderate easterly touching double figures under leaden skies...
If it turns out that way its quite remarkable in itself
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2 hours ago, Frosty. said:
Give it chance
The screen shot is for Tuesday frosty
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Unbelievable for an easterly
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8 minutes ago, Frosty. said:
I'm going to suggest the models have upgraded the cold potential compared to yesterday..anyone agree?
Looks like becoming very cold
Its looking like a decent cold spell agreed. I wouldn't say very cold at this stage. 2/3 degs is just a standard cold spell imo. They type we used to get before the proper cold came in. Lets hope that happens, although we are running out of time.
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The one thing that I have noticed is that the real cold uppers are always 10 days away. That has been the case for the last 2/3 days.
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14 minutes ago, Mapantz said:
It's because the surface temperature is warmer than the ambient air temperature.
My air temperature is currently 0.4°C. However, the grass temperature is nearly 9°CThanks. Why is the grass temperature so high
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Well with temperatures around freezing and cloud cover 6 days of frost starts to melt in central Reading.
Shame if it where sunny with the same temp it would not melt in the shade but with the clouds it does.
Anyone know why?
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12 hours ago, CK1981 said:
What is it reading now? It's about -1 now, but I guess Farnborough is lower. Seems to be the cold spot
12 hours ago, CK1981 said:What is it reading now? It's about -1 now, but I guess Farnborough is lower. Seems to be the cold spot
It was reading-1. Seems to be spot on during the night but lower during the day. That said it's a very shade north facing spot
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4 minutes ago, CK1981 said:
Max here was 4.5, up from yesterday. Down to -1 now, well that's the nearest station. It's quite rural here and always colder. I work in Bracknell and when I drive home, it's always 1.5 degrees colder at home.
Thanks. Sounds like mine might be reading a little low then.
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14 minutes ago, CK1981 said:
Only down to -0.5 here. I've not checked, but I guess Farnborough will be much lower, even though just 10 miles down the road. What are your bets on the lowest temperature tonight and where? Will fog inhibit it? I still think Farnborough or Benson will be the cold spots, but will we see a -10??
What was your max in binfield today. 2.4 in tilehurst. New weather station and based on the maxes predicted of 6/7 just wanting to sense check
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Same here in Tilehurst, everything frozen over for days. Looks like its been snowing in the shade with frost that has persisted for days on end. Yet, watching bbc weather this morning with predictions of 6/7 degrees as per the last 3/4 days suggests something different.
Slighlty confused as over the last week google has reported current temps of 6/7 in Reading but yet my weather station has been saying 1-3 maxes, inluding today which maxed at 2.4c. Yet, radio said it was 6c.
Anyone else getting this anomaly?
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4 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:
I'd like to know what is so poor about the ECM 144h chart? It's showing very cold surface temps, with what may be a retrogressing high towards the North. Again, it's almost like we haven't had the warmest December in 70-odd years, and the wettest on record.
I guess because the high is sinking with too much energy on top.
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27 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:
165m not too bad but not great, sleet/wet snow best guess, Thurs 8pm to Sat 8am, our best chances, and with GFS upgrading cold, it will be there a long time, all ice days next week
Looking at the charts I couldn't see any ice days next week. Have I missed something?
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2 minutes ago, Mr Sleet said:
Although a big improvement in the models for cold, this set up gives us the wishbone effect with snow showers really limited to far northern and coastal areas.
For those away from the coasts and in the southern half of the Uk,we'll have to hope for some disturbances running down the country to deliver anything.
Aah I remember the same being said around early Jan 2010. 3 days later 36cm of laying snow in Tilehurst
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Aah. I remember a northerly in early Jan 2010. I remember this board being very downbeat with the predicted temps of 1 or 2 degs and it being "bone dry". Fast forward to Jan 5th in Reading and there is an even 34cm on the ground.The next few days were clear crisp ice days.All went a bit slushy thereafter.
I am not saying this will happen. Just that a longer northerly often comes up with something.
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Uppers don't look too cold to my untrained eye.2-3c maxes in the south? What I would class as cold not very cold?
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Oh no no no, not the Express.
Firstly, I don't think I've seen a chart which gets us close to 32C!! The most generous I've seen is GFS which at one point had 29C possible, but that assumes little cloud and certainly no mess left over from overnight showers (or indeed from the fronts which have plagued us today). Even in unbroken sunshine, 30C might be scraped IMO, but a scraping at best.
As for violent tropical thunderstorms, I reserve judgement. The use of the word tropical at our latitude is amusing - even Florida climatically speaking is classified only as sub-tropical and they get regular heat, humidity, storms and hurricanes.
I wouldn't read into that article too much to be honest - it's a lot of hype IMO.
(However, I beg to be proven wrong - violent tropical storms do sound fun!!!)
South Florida is tropical, I beleive
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Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Hence my comment was following the day maxes question, at which point hopefully the sun will be shining. Unless of course we get lots of snow which would be great.