Johnp
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Posts posted by Johnp
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Mike Poole I hope people remember this when they start pumping out EC46 charts next winter. Literally a (proven) waste of time.
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Aiden2012 Yep, see you in November folks (or maybe summer if there’s a mega heatwave on the way). Another day, another step away from cold blocked charts.
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nick sussex Yes, this isn’t the sort of charts I was expecting during a SSW!
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Bit of an odd 6z run, with a raging polar vortex. It’s going from bad to worse!
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Lukesluckybunch …and didn’t get any better after!
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Another wildly different GFS run. This is like pulling teeth, meanwhile we are another day nearer to spring.
I know many people don't agree that the micro can impact the macro (if that makes sense) but that pesky low that failed to deliver the goods it initially promised, is now screwing up the overall movement towards blocking to our north that 'should' be happening.
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53 minutes ago, TEITS said:
We need these to ejaculate SE
Anyway, a much improved 6z with cold north easterlies from day 10. Let the rollercoaster start again.
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P16 shows the kind of setup we need, with a deep cold pool advecting towards us
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Just looking at some of the early GEFS runs at day 7, there are still some potential lovely outcomes. Wouldn’t be surprised there was a “wtf” run in the morning.
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MJB Hope so - this run could challenge the record CET for Feb.
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This is a shocker - virtually all of Europe above 0c at 850hpa
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A big problem seems to be, instead of lows moving east and digging southwards, they are all wafting gently polewards and/or westwards.
What is causing this odd behaviour? Is it too early for stratospheric impacts?
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Looking very springlike around the 16th, should be very pleasant.
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Lukesluckybunch It’s the worst run of the day.
Spah1 Because by moving north, the low is wafting mild air up across us and Europe.
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Daniel* Maybe not, but I’m sure I’m not alone in having that same sinking feeling as just before the last cold spell went belly up.
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Battleground Snow To be fair, it doesn’t say ‘sea level’ either in the Met Office text. It just says lower levels.
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Horrendous ECM, low just sitting there and filling.
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Am I looking at the wrong charts? It’s a terrible run with the southern half of Britain never getting below -4c at 850hpa?
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Much better dig south of the cold air so far on the 18z
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@feb1991blizzard It’s a stonker. Bank!
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Pinch of salt required, but a much improved 6z
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Yep, looks like the PV is going to blow itself out by the first few days of Feb, then we have to see where the cards fall.
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14 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:
My gut feeling is in terms of cold we can write this winter off, yes a bit early days but looking at the ECM the Atlantic is more fired up than it has been all winter. Historically of recent winters after a cold/chilly spell in January and the synoptics become more +NAO thereafter there's no way back into February, not counting out cooler spells with Pm incursions but that's nothing out of the ordinary.
Happy to be proved wrong...but that's where my money would lay.
Is this the first winter is over post?
Things can change very quickly as the 6z run shows later in the run.
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9 minutes ago, Gowon said:
Nobody noticed the ICON:
I did, but nothing worthy of comment surely?
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by Johnp
andymusic Good for cold rain?