daveinSB
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It's all about Hazard and Risk though, if more people are aware of the hazards via the warning system, then there should be a lower risk of harm to the population overall. People seem to think that warnings apply to them specifically, when it's more about probability of impacts
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Judging by the movement of the rain on the radar, the centre would appear to be over the top of me in North London currently
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Some heavy showers breaking out ahead of the initial rain band
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Here you go Beka! Hampshire authorities to declare major incident as Storm Ciarán heads to Hampshire WWW.HAMPSHIRECHRONICLE.CO.UK Local authorities; emergency services and partner agencies are ready to support residents across Hampshire & Isle of Wight, ahead of Storm…
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It's quite staggering how much model divergence there still is at this point. I'm never 100% sure whether we should give the high resolution, short range models more credence at this point. Intuition says yes?
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Ignore people commenting on individual model runs, and pay attention to the Met Office text and video forecast that are produced with expert human input from a blend of the computer models. There will be significant impacts from wind and rain across a large part of southern England and Wales. The Met Office deep dive, and the attendant charts are your best bet for now.
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Part of the reason will be because despite individual movements between runs, the Metoffices blended forecast, with human input, has remained broadly the same throughout. Combined with the fact that the fact that it's been very wet recently, the trees are in full leaf, and the storm will be at its peak in populated areas in the daytime. It's much more than absolute data from individual model runs
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Is the 18z Arpege even out yet? Or are you referring to another model?
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Storms and Convective discussion- October 2023
daveinSB replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Staying in Boscombe this weekend, got a direct hit from the cell just now, round 2 has no T&L so far, but here comes the rain -
I remember heading down to the country park that day and seeing the water right up against the top of the only natural dam that was there at the time, in the visitor center car park.
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I really noticed how it was under-reporting the intensity of the rain in North London earlier
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There's a yellow warning for the south east, unless it's been cancelled?
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Yellow warning for London and the South East for rain on Friday. Also a wind warning up the east coast
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Warnings removed elsewhere, presumably just while they update them?
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I don't think there's any disputing that June was hot. The hottest on record by almost a whole degree. Whether that is hot enough for people's personal preference is another thing entirely.
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Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023
daveinSB replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
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Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023
daveinSB replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Delighted to see initiation around the Swindon area, looking good for me in Melton Mowbray later this afternoon -
Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023
daveinSB replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Yep, some cumulus bubbling up looking east from Melton Mowbray currently -
Storms and Convective discussion - August 2023
daveinSB replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Torrential rain in W12 (Shepherds Bush) last 10 minutes, just letting up now. Our balcony is thoroughly flooded -
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
daveinSB replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I've been out of the model thread for a bit, what does CCKW stand for? -
I actually don't mind the weather today and what's forecast for tomorrow, I enjoy interesting weather and the strong winds later today (potentially) and tomorrow's wind and convection interest me just as much as a severe heatwave. I also run extremely hot and suffer from hyperhidrosis on my face and head, so a bit of cool, rainy weather doesn't bother me as much.