daveinSB
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Storms and Convective discussion - May 2024
daveinSB replied to Eagle Eye's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Eagle Eye UKV and AROME now looking good for an area of storms that tap into the 1.5k+ cape in an around London, which suits me nicely. Just a shame today is my last day of 2 weeks off work - I could be very very tired come Thursday morning - especially as my vantage point gives the best view to the SE and the tree surgeons have been getting busy -
I very much remember it, as my wife and I were both out of work at the time thanks to Covid, and we have a south-facing balcony - so April 2021 in the daytime was fantastic, with the sun low enough in the sky to fully illuminate the covered balcony. However, we made the mistake of heading for our first post-lockdown pint one afternoon, and sat outside a hastily rearranged BrewDog, basking in the sun in t-shirts and jeans. But the second the sun even went behind a building at ~6pm we had to run back home, so sudden was the temperature drop. I also remember snow/graupel showers in London
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Alderc 2.0 From my (very) amateur perspective, the GFS 00z has the UK much closer to the high, ECM with less of the high and more of the northerly component, a much less desirable outcome
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Storms and Convective discussion - November 2023 onwards
daveinSB replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Fabulous few minutes here in Shepherds Bush, sudden darkness, then heavy sleet, hail, and then graupel. It passed as soon as it arrived -
It's most definitely not a generational thing, stupidity has no age limit
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deep low for southern england\east anglia
daveinSB replied to Robert1981's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
I've noticed that weird anomaly on radar a few times, definitely some kind of artefact -
Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks
daveinSB replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
This forecast is becoming increasingly accurate. I think it shows the value of the input of a trained and experienced meteorologist. -
deep low for southern england\east anglia
daveinSB replied to Robert1981's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Having seen the rain in West London earlier, I'm not at all surprised by that -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
daveinSB replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
You don't need a frost for it to be very cold. 3C in the day and 1C at night would be a very cold, yet (air) frost free period of weather. -
Hottest Heatwave of All Time Championship
daveinSB replied to CryoraptorA303's topic in Historic Weather
I'll nominate July 2013. It might not have been the hottest, but being starved of hot, sunny, summer weather since 2006 made it feel more significant -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
daveinSB replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Which output are you referring to here? It would be useful to know what you're basing your thoughts on. -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
daveinSB replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes, you also wonder how people would have reacted if there was a clean Easterly feed with -5 uppers and lake effect, erm, rain -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
daveinSB replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Things generally seem to be firming up on a 4-5 day cold spell now, with the odd chance of some snow, not too bad at all considering it's late November. People would get a lot less upset (just pre-empting this AMs reactions...) if they weren't constantly chasing 16 day long narnia spells - the likelihood of that happening on an island in our particular global locale in late autumn/early winter is very low indeed. -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
daveinSB replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The shortwave that has 'spolied' Monday is the exact reason the models look so good from Tuesday onwards. Monday has never looked cold. -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
daveinSB replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
We only just (appear) to have resolved T+96, I don't think there's much point worrying about 100+ hours later! Also, uppers become less important as cold becomes entrenched, particularly under a slack continental flow. -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
daveinSB replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
That chart is for Monday, which as far as I can tell, has never been progged to be cold? All the action is Tuesday onwards. -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
daveinSB replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Indeed, there was a good couple of inches of snow lying for over a week where I work in North London. -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
daveinSB replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
6z GFS really pumping heights up into Greenland, giving a NEly before collapsing the high. It's really sticking to its guns -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
daveinSB replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It only really goes 'wrong' from day 9 onwards though, lots of water to pass under the bridge before that. Although the general trend doesn't look fantastic with regards to cold -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
daveinSB replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
There really is no need for 'Holy Grail' charts as we approach solar minimum - December 2017 comes to mind -
The models and the professionals seem to have totally misjudged the northward extent of the convection/rain today, some quite heavy rain indeed from embedded line convection in Shepherds Bush currently! Edit: although I just saw the yellow warning for the South East that was issued earlier, so perhaps not that unexpected