WhiteFox
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It'll come back. It's all cyclical.They had ludicrously warm winters in Henry VIII's reign. It's only a matter of time before serious cold returns. Indeed, the US is currently in the grip of a very severe winter.
Again, it's all relative. It would be severe in the UK, but over here...
Below normal December for parts of the Midwest and parts of the Inner Mountains, but certainly not severe. There haven't been many winter months which come in the top ten coldest over the past ten years, although last February was certainly severe for parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley. Perceptions have also changed here...
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Looks like mainly a west based -ve NAO signal though - with high pressure still dominant over western Europe, rather than low pressure as would be the case in an east based -NAO. A west based -NAO tends to favour mild conditions for western and northern Europe, whereas an east based -NAO tends to favour cold for Nern Europe.
You're right, and it's one that definitely favours us rather than Europe. Something to stall any coastal systems and keep the cold air flowing!
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Just to keep an interest in other countries weather i use accuweather for USA.A chap called Joe laminate floori did a winter forecast in which he stated that the USA winter this year would be cold to start and cold to finish with above average temperatures in between this begs 2 questions as more cold weather floods in next week.Is Accuweather a decent site and second point does Mr laminate floori have a decent historical track record.Many thanks.
You mean JB? He actually called a winter cancel before December and said that the clipper system would be the only snow the NE saw the whole season. He has backtracked on that as it looks like a bad call.
Every other year he always screams 'blizzard'! Normally I'd call him a cold ramper. He certainly enjoys the cold, so he's usually a good read. I doubt his record is any better than any other long range forecaster though...
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I'm after a bit of help. I'm off to New Jersey next Sunday (20th) and not sure what to pack - crampons and arctic gear or short sleeves and slacks http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif . Any ideas?
Depends where in Jersey you're going and how long you'll be spending outside. If you're talking about interior New Jersey then I'm not joking when I say you'll need thermals if you are spending any time outside. I also recommend dressing in layers; if you can a fleece on top of a jumper with an outer shield of windproof and waterproof material, plus a hat, gloves and if you can, something to keep your ears warm. There is still a large amount of uncertainty as to how cold it will be at that range (there is a 25oC spread for the 22nd) and it is not possible to see how windy it will be. Suffice to say, the coldest weather comes with a brisk North Westerly wind so keep an eye on the weather from Monday onwards!
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there are lots of people on this site that would give anything, well almost anything, to see an ensemble like either of those for ANYWHERE in the UK.
It's an interesting parallel with last year. I happen to have an ensemble chart from January 9th 2007 for Chicago:
El Niño/La Niña, Quelle difference?
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Our key is what happens over your part of the world, just as your key is the Pacific region.
Picked up on this snippet from a Met (who was in the warmer camp until today) on Eastern US boards:
The cold signs for last 10-11 days of January have been building for several days now. Model consensus is finally starting to come together. Still no sign of -NAO on the models thru day 16, but if the strong vortex forms in t Hudson Bay/eatern Canada, you would think a -NAO would come with time. If it doesn this cold pattern is 10-14 days and then out in early February, if the -NAO comes, colder pattern coudl be the main feature rest of the winter.Only one Met's opinion, but maybe some hope...
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Good stuff John. Keep up the good work! I hope you don't think it rude of me to add some bits from across the water....
The story over here continues to be one of a pattern change into next week. An amplified Pacific Jet ridges over Western NA and forms a trough over the Midwest. The devil is in the exact detail in terms of where systems form etc. and just how amplified the jet will become, but the forecasts are fairly consistent.
This is the 12z +144 chart:
and the 18z +138 chart:
Both look remarkably similar for such a long way out. Experience tells me that they tend to be pretty accurate at such ranges over here; once the Pacific jet amplifies then the rest falls into place. I'm pretty sure that the same cannot be said of the Atlantic!
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Yeah, my house is timber with aluminum siding so if the tornado had tracked a mile or 2 further south I shudder to think what would have been left!!
I'm down in Texas at the moment and passed a construction site on my way to the hotel; a large five story building, all made of timber!
Anyway, pattern change definitely on the way now for the Midwest and NE US.
The current surface pressure chart shows a low pressure system off the West Coast slightly further north than recent systems.
Over the past week a succession of systems have passed over Washington state or even a bit further south bringing the heavy snow to the Californian mountains and much needed rain to the whole state. As the same time the South Eastern ridge held sway and pumped in some very mild and humid air resulting in the record temperatures and severe weather in the Midwest and North East.
As the jet stream shifts position we see the systems pushing in further north. We need to see a ridge forming over the west coast and a trough pushing further east to encourage colder air to flood the rest of the US. Storm systems from the Pacific ride up the Western side of the ridge and come over the top, descending South East over the CONUS. This draws down the coldest Canadian air.
Looking ahead to next Wednesday, we see just such a situation:
Note the strong blocking high preventing any systems from riding through the West Coast and drawing up warm air. Instead we see a system approaching from Canada which brings some of the coldest air of the season so far into the Midwest.
By next Friday we such much of the interior CONUS bathed in very cold air:
With the freezing line extending across the whole of OK and the panhandle of TX:
The interesting feature of this set up is the the southern jet remains alive and pumps some energy to the south of the blocking high pressure:
This could provide the necessary ingredients for snow events further down the line. Energy coming across southern Texas and skirting the Gulf states can often transfer to the Coast and phase with energy from the north to produce a Nor'Easter and heavy snow for the big cities. Much more interesting than record high temperatures!
Ensembles for Chicago:
And New York:
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that last one is pretty frightening after reading it was a house!
Pretty amazing things. Makes you wonder why they insist on building houses from matchsticks (ok, I'm exaggerating, but all houses are timber over here).
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Hi,
I can confirm that the BBCs prediction was correct. We went on a road trip and we were at Niagara yesterday and it was warm and almost sultry with the spray from the falls. We felt like right prats as we only brought along our winter coats and boots. The falls were lovely though.
Nearly all the snow has gone from Toronto and heading back East, we are presently between Montreal and Quebec, the temps and at 5c and there still snow around but not as much as when we passed through on Friday/Saturday.
TTFN
Debs
Only a brief blowtorch, but very high temperatures indeed; enough to decimate the snowpack across Upstate New York and New England. There is nearly always something of a thaw in January even in normal/below normal years, but nothing like this and usually a bit later in the month. Anyway, temperatures return to near normal by the weekend.
Just to illustrate how extreme this weather is, Burlington, VT did not rise above -13oC last Thursday; today's maximum was 18oC beating the previous date record by 7oC, but falling 1o short of the January record. For New York last Thursday was -6oC, today was also 18oC beating the date record by 4o but 3o short of the January record which was equalled last year.
By the weekend NYC looks like being around 3oC, which is average, and Burlington -1oC by Sunday.
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3 deaths reported in Webster County, MO. I guess it was inevitable given the conditions. Supercells continue to train close by; unbelievable train of storms so far. Yet another tornado warning issued for Greene County which is about the fourth or fifth so far...
2045 doppler from Springfield; yet another supercell on the doorstep...
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The Southern end of the system has exploded in the past hour. On the radar there was very little over OK an hour ago; now there is a very sharp line of storms.
Discussion over posible outbreaks over Eastern OK and Arkansas later tonight:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
745 PM CST MON JAN 7 2008
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE BROKEN LINE OF SUPERCELLS
IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
FOR TORNADOES THIS EVENING. STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY
TO 1 KM RANGES FROM AROUND 250 M2/S2 NEAR THE STORMS
TO NEAR 400 M2/S2 IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES IN ARKANSAS...
WITH THE MAX VALUES IN THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY NEAR
500 M2/S2.
HODOGRAPHS SHOW THE OCCASIONAL RIGHT MOVEMENT THE CELLS
HAVE SHOW INCREASES THE THE MID-LEVEL STORM-RELATVE FLOW
...FURTHER ENHANCING THE TORNADO POTENTIAL AND PERHAPS
A LONGER-TRACK TORNADO.
ALL INTERESTS IN NORTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND
IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE
TO A HIGH STATE OF READINESS.
PDS issued for tonight (Particularly Dangerous Situation); highly unusual for early January:
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 5
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
750 PM CST MON JAN 7 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS
WESTERN ILLINOIS
SOUTHWEST THROUGH EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 750 PM UNTIL
500 AM CST.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FORT
SMITH ARKANSAS TO 30 MILES NORTH OF ALTON ILLINOIS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 1...WW 2...WW 3...WW 4...
DISCUSSION...SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
ALONG PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE ZONE EXTENDING ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-44
CORRIDOR FROM NE OK INTO E CNTRL MO. APPROACH OF OK/TX PANHANDLE
UPR VORT AND ASSOCIATED STRENGTHENING LLJ...AND ABSENCE OF STRONG
LOW LEVEL LINEAR FORCING...SHOULD MAINTAIN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DISCRETE TO SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS. GIVEN INTENSE DEEP SHEAR OVER
REGION AND SLIGHT BACKING OF NEAR-SFC FLOW ALONG CONFLUENCE
LINE...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR TORNADOES...SOME POSSIBLY STRONG.
THE GREATEST THREAT SHOULD SPREAD SLOWLY ENE FROM NE OK AND SW/S
CNTRL MO THIS EVENING...AND REACH THE MO/IL BORDER AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25045.
...CORFIDI
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Warnings springing up everywhere and the situation is reported to be getting worse..!!!
Injuries now being reported.
Very nasty down there now.
HIRD TORNADIC CELL MOVING INTO SPRINGFIELD - THIS IS A NEW WARNING
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
736 PM CST MON JAN 7 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
GREENE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
* UNTIL 845 PM CST.
* AT 732 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS VERY
DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MARIONVILLE...OR 7 MILES NORTHEAST
OF AURORA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.
* THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR...
REPUBLIC BY 745 PM CST.
8 MILES NORTHWEST OF BATTLEFIELD BY 750 PM CST.
WILLARD AND 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF SPRINGFIELD BY 800 PM CST.
9 MILES NORTHWEST OF STRAFFORD BY 810 PM CST.
FAIR GROVE BY 815 PM CST.
THE TOWNS OF BOIS D'ARC...GLIDEWELL...EBENEZER AND BASSVILLE ARE ALSO
IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADIC STORM.
IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE.
745PM radar:
Still plenty of nasty looking echoes on there!
Warnings now up in Michigan:
TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN GRATIOT COUNTY IN CENTRAL MICHIGAN
SOUTHERN ISABELLA COUNTY IN CENTRAL MICHIGAN
NORTHEASTERN MONTCALM COUNTY IN CENTRAL MICHIGAN
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Could be some bad news from this one tomorrow:
...THIS IS A TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR THE CITY OF SPRINGFIELD...
Hoping it doesn't score a direct hit.
Latest radar from Springfield:
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As real-time as it gets!
GREENE MO-
720 PM CST MON JAN 7 2008
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CST FOR GREENE
COUNTY...
AT 718 PM CST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS CONTINUED TO TRACK A TORNADO
OBSERVED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF JAMES RIVER AND WEST
BYPASS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.
THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
STRAFFORD BY 735 PM CST.
7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FAIR GROVE BY 740 PM CST.
ANYONE IN OR NEAR SPRINGFIELD SHOULD TAKE COVER NOW !!!
THE TOWNS OF TURNERS AND BASSVILLE ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO.
IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE.
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Oklahoma is now starting to get into the act:
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
711 PM CST MON JAN 7 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL MUSKOGEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
NORTHEASTERN MCINTOSH COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
* UNTIL 745 PM CST
* AT 708 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES
are you in the us at the moment white fox?I am indeed. Way down in Corpus Christi in Southern Texas at the moment. In the Central Time Zone so it's all 'live' for me. Currently it's 22oC here in Corpus!
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Another report much closer to Springfield and heading towards the city:
Nw Clever [Christian Co, MO] trained spotter reports TORNADO at 07:06 PM CST -- on 14 hwy. debris spotted in air.
Going back to earlier image, Clever is just SW of Springfield:
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thanks for the update white fox, I wish I could stay up longer and listen but I better go to bed,
keep up the updates.
I'm just thinking about going to get some dinner!
BTW, Marshfield is just up the I44 on the first image I posted, so the same storm, if not the same tornado...
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Another one for MO:
N Marshfield [Webster Co, MO] emergency mngr reports TORNADO at 06:53 PM CST -- tornado on ground just north of marshfield
Pretty nasty storm cells indeed.
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Strafford is very close to Springfield:
Purdy to the South West; heading towards Springfield? A bit to go....
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Hot off the press:
1 N Strafford [Greene Co, MO] nws employee reports TORNADO at 06:30 PM CST -- power line flashes reported. possible tornado.18:32
2 N Purdy [barry Co, MO] trained spotter reports TORNADO at 06:34 PM CST
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is it a gud sign to get tornados at this time of year? could it signal a gud year?
It's hard to tell. This weather is very unusual for the time of year, especially to get as far north as Chicago and Wisconsin. I don't think it really tells us much about the upcoming season at the moment.
Lookin' on NEXRAD images earlier over springfield and a hook echo was clearly visible,suprised on hearing no tornado reports..
Definitely a hook echo to the East North East of Springfield. Keeping an eye out for reports.
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Recent radar from Springfield:
1 W Springfield [Greene Co, MO] trained spotter reports HAIL of half dollar size (E1.25 INCH) at 06:15 PM CST -- at west bypass near divison.
Reports literally flooding in (pardon the pun!):
Springfield [Greene Co, MO] trained spotter reports HAIL of golf ball size (E1.75 INCH) at 06:21 PM CST -- greenlawn north and harry truman school.18:21
SGF issues Tornado Warning for Dallas, Greene, Webster [MO] till 7:30 PM CST
Ne Springfield [Greene Co, MO] trained spotter reports HAIL of baseball size (E2.75 INCH) at 06:23 PM CST -- glenstone and i-44.
Not bad for the first week of Jan!
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Keep us Alerted Whitefox!!
Springfield is now under the gun as I expected, Hook and DEbris cloud headed straight into the City. Lets hope the Tornado isn't large as I am sure this is quite a large place. Whitefox will verify probably??
Paul S
Springfield is the capital of Illinois believe it or not! Just over 100 thousand people I believe.
You may find this link interesting:
http://player.streamtheworld.com/jbroadcast/?CALLSIGN=KTTSFM
Edit: Just realised it's Springfield, MO. Any wonder they chose Springfield for The Simpsons! Anyway, Springfield, MO is a city of 150 thousand people, the third largest in MO.
North American Weather (U.S.A & Canada)
in Weather Around The World
Posted
Also looking at the potential for some snow in NYC Sunday into Monday. This storm has been monitored all week and for once it looks like producing:
/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0001.080114T0200Z- 080114T1700Z/ NORTHERN FAIRFIELD- SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-WESTERN PASSAIC- BERGEN- EASTERN PASSAIC-ESSEX-HUDSON- UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND- NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)- BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)- QUEENS-NASSAU- NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK- SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK- 410 PM EST SAT JAN 12 2008
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SUNDAY EVENING AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOWFALL BY THE TIME THE SNOW ENDS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE SNOW AMOUNTS... DEPENDING ON THE TRACK THE STORM TAKES.
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW... SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.