[North American Weather (U.S.A & Canada)]

Super chilled!

I see that Emarrass, MN recorded a low temperature of -36oC last night. That's a staggering -32oF!

The record low for the 11th December is -38oC set in 1977, so not too far off. It really has been absolutely frigid across the High Plains and Northern Midwest for the past couple of weeks. Minneapolis hasn't been above freezing for at least two weeks and Fargo, ND has been struggling to get out of single figures......Fahrenheit!

[East Coast Storm Development]

The GFS ensemble mean for the 18z shows a big hit for the NYC area and the rest of the NE coast:

For some reason the Operational run continues to show the track to be to the West of the other ensemble members.

A lot depends on the track of a storm which will pass across the area into Thursday. At the moment it looks like Upstate New York and New England will see a fair fall of snow from this system. As per the weekend system, NYC is right on the line once again:

The timing and exact track of this system will have a large impact on where the weekend's storm goes. For this reason we cannot even begin to look at more precise forecasts until Friday, and even then the rain/snow line won't be pinned down until right on the event. There will be a lot of nowcasting going on from Saturday night onwards...

[East Coast Storm Development]

Ok, so I figured it would be interesting to track this developing feature right up to final solution if I get the time. At the moment it is a long way out and could either go too far out to sea, track inland, or simply not phase and give a damp squib solution.

To start with, what do we require for a SECS (Significant East Coast Storm) or higher? What is the definition?

Actually, there are no definitive measurement scales such as for Tornadoes or Hurricanes. Several analyses have been performed on the development of such storms and therefore categorised, Miller-A and Miller-B being two such examples, but in terms of impact the closest we have is the Nort East Snow Impact Scale (NESIS) which attempts to measure the total snowfall in inches and weights it by population affected. Therefore, a storm dumping 30 inches in Maine and 2 inches in Boston will have a lower impact than 15 inches in Boston and 5 inches in Maine for instance. See this link for some analysis.

In terms of ingredients we obviously need cold air. Usually this will require a high pressure pumping colder air to the south. Looking ahead to this weekend, we see a high pressure in place providing the cool air:

The cold air is not as intense as we’d like it to be, but it is in the right place. This is important because of something called Cold Air Damming (CAD). This is where cold air becomes trapped East of the Appalachian Mountains. This can sometimes be seen on maps where the isobars are noticeably kinked. The chart below from just before the President’s Day Storm II clearly shows CAD in effect; notice the kink in the isobars as the low pressure pushes up against the Canadian high pressure over Quebec:

The storm shown in the above charts eventually produced 20 inches+ over large areas. The CAD was important because it meant that the warmer air wrapping around the low pressure was not able to overcome the cold air already in place so the PPN remained all snow. See this excellent case-study for a full description of the PDII storm.

The CAD is not so evident in this weekend’s charts. It is not essential for the production of a major storm, but without strong CAD there is the likelihood of snow turning to sleet, freezing rain or even plain rain as warmer air pushes in around the system. This is what happened during the two big storms last year; the Valentine’s Day storm and the St. Patrick’s Day storm which both produced a few inches of snow followed by freezing rain. Further inland however, the PPN stays as all snow or snow to sleet.

The forecasts keep changing on this system as we would expect at this stage. YOu can see by looking at the charts below just how thin a line there is between a bullseye snowstorm and a rain event.

Firstly, look at the current forecast track on the SLP chart. The first chart shows T+108:

On this chart we can see that the wind for NYC has a SE component. This means at this stage that rain is the most likely outcome. This is backed up by the 850 temperatures on which I've given a rough position for NYC. The position is extremely marginal because as you can see, the temperature gradient is extremely high; literally 20 miles makes all the difference:

At the surface this translates to a freezing line perilously close to NYC. Take a drive over the George Washington Bridge and head about 10 miles North and you'd be below freezing:

The same is true of dewpoints. Again the 0oC line is just on the mainland:

And finally, thickness. We're looking for the 540 line which is generally accepted as the rain/snow line. Any higher and the cold air is too shallow to support frozen PPN:

Once again we are just on the edge!

So, on today's 18z forecast NYC just misses out on the worst (or best!) of the snow. The exact track of this storm will move around bit over the next few days; the worst thing that can happen for us is an inland runner where we end up on the Eastern side of the storm in heavy rain...

[North American Weather (U.S.A & Canada)]

Just a note guys regarding this thread - really enjoy the constant updates, the continuous posts relating to copious amounts of cold, then blistering heat really does keep me hooked - probably my love of the extremes which leads me to think i will one day end up living out in the NE USA.

Gents/Gentesses , based on past experiences, at what point would you say that the seasons 'turn', noticeably, based on observations only? Obviously there are the official meterological dates regarding when one 'season' transfers to the next - but as i say, based on experiences, do these dates actually relate loosely to the 'realfeel' change in conditions? Is there a trend whereby you expect a certain weather to deliver around a certain date? Is this failry reliable?

Hope this makes sense , quite hard to portray what is meant...

As mentioned - Is one of the best threds on here - Keep it up eh http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/cool.gif

There are a few good reasons for moving to the NE US, or to Canada, among which (for me) is the seasons. If you are able, then you can get yourself a really nice house with a large plot of land in upstate New York or northern New England.

Anyway, I'd say that you first start to notice Winter in New York in November. Late November is when you can realistically get your first frost (the average first freeze is December 15th in NYC rather surprisingly), although this obviously becomes earlier the further north you head.

For spring, it seems to be around mid- to late-March when it starts to feel like spring. The thing about weather over here is that such extremes are possible; last year I was walking around Central Park in a t-shirt with temperatures around 21oC! That is an extreme exception, but the sources of heat and cold are not modified to the extent that you see in the UK; that is why we can see a temperature drop of 20oC over a 24-hour period. It is even more extreme in the Midwest.

As for summer, late May to early June. The temperatures generally climb; we get periods of temperatures rising followed by storms and then even higher temperatures. This carries on until the end of August when the first hints of Autumn come with slightly cooler nights, although days are still hot. Autumn really makes its presence felt towards the end of September.

This is only a guide of course; Last year saw an extended autumn and winter didn't really get going until the middle of January!

Anyway, looking ahead, the ensembles continue to point to something interesting for the coming weekend:

Note the temps and ppn for the 16th into the 17th. This could be a Significant to Major storm on the cards (often shortened to SECS or MECS over here; I believe it is Significant East Coast Storm (or Snowstorm) or Major East Coast Storm. There is a third category, Historic East Coast Storm such as the storm of February 2006 or the President's Day storms Part one or two). If the control run verified with 27mm of PPN over 28 hours, given a liquid to snow ratio of about 12 to 1, then that equates to 32cm of snow or just over a foot in old money. With 850 temps around -10 for the whole period it would be snow for the entire event.

There are a couple of runs which suggest a rain event, and as always at this distance the track of the system is key. Current ensembles means (as of 18z 10/12/07) show the following for Sunday:

And six hours later:

As WeatherForecaster used to say 'on the verge of a dream'....

Anyway, this picture will become much clearer once we start getting input from the relevant areas where the seeds for the storm originate. Believe it or not, the wave which eventually develops into the storm doesn't appear until late on Thursday, so it's a long week.

I'll leave everyone for now with the GFS 18z operational map for Sunday. Take a look at those isobars and ppn over New York. We have a rule over here that all the biggest storms happen on weekends; this could be what we need for verification!

12 hours later just for Debs:

[North American Weather (U.S.A & Canada)]

Whoever was visting NY between the 14th to 18th could be here for something interesting...

It's still beyond any reasonable forecast range, but a coastal storm is beginning to appear on the charts. A shift of a hundred miles West or East makes a big difference to these storms, but it looks like becoming cold for a few days at least thereafter. Anyway, the chart looks like this for next Saturday:

At the moment there are a few ingredients missing; a Canadian high for one and Cold Air Daming for another, bith of which are usually a big help for any significant Nor'Easter. On the plus side, Canada has been below average temperature wise for quite some time now and this could help with temperatures. The chart shown would probably produce mostly rain for NYC, but we shall see... The ensembles show a couple of different variations:

A couple go for pure rain events and some for snow. We shall see!

Addit, more snow for Debs either way from this system; some pretty strong winds too. I guess you're used to it by now!

[North American Weather (U.S.A & Canada)]

Debs, you get nosebleeds because the air is so dry; the airmasses coming down from the North West, which are also the coldest, tend to be extremely dry. I'm not ashamed to admit that I use moisturiser in the winter over here! You may also notice if you look at the radar that there are occasions when the radar shows it should be snowing, but nothing is reaching the ground. If you have light or even moderate ppn falling into dewpoints around -20oC or below then the moisture is literally absorbed into the air. I saw a couple of systems come through here last year where it took about an hour for any moisture to finally make it to the ground!

Anyway some punishing cold over the Midwest. I see that Chicago got down to 0oF (-18oC) which equalled the record for the date. However, this is positively balmy compared to International Falls where the temperature has just reached 0oF at 3pm! Even colder than Debs!

[North American Weather (U.S.A & Canada)]

Ouch!!!!!!! Hope you're okay. My little one done the same thing this morning, slipped on the porch. I cleared it off but more snow fell overnight. I have'nt seen any really big flakes yet, perhaps this is because I live near the beach. Still theres lying snow and I am a happy bunny.

TTFN

Debs

Nothing but a bit of wounded dignity...

I think you only get big flakes when the temperatures are closer to freezing in the upper levels; more likely to be a spring phenomenon over here. In Chicago in April there was 3 inches from a storm which dumped some very big flakes.

Anyway, a warmer interlude is certainly on the way; 850s forecast to reach for the +10 level in New York. In some ways not a bad thing; I love cold at winter, but over here it gets so dry and the dewpoints are so low that my hands start cracking up and, believe it or not, I suffer from more nosebleeds! It's currently -3oC here in New York with a dewpoint of -12oC...

Also, I notice another 2-4 inches of snow forecast for Chicago this evening; after some recent winters with rather low totals it looks like the Mr Plows may be kept more busy this year.

Anyway, ensembles for New York showing the warmup followed by another cooldown:

It's a similar picture for Chicago where there seems to be a large amount of ppn on the cards:

A couple of interesting features here; the weekend system looks like a snow to rain feature, but not too heavy. The system on the 10th looks more potent and could produce some freezing rain. With the 10 or so inches on the ground by that stage it'll be pretty miserable in Chicago by then. I've seen much warmer air flood through a snow-covered Chicago before and produce fog so thick you can only just make out the building on the other side of the street.

As for Minneapolis, their position that bit further North and west keeps them in the colder air over the whole period other than into FI. In fact, the 10 day forecast shows the closest the Twin Cities get to freezing is -3oC today and next Thursday. A 'high' of -12oC is forecast for both Saturday and Sunday. The average high at this time of year is about -2oC so it's a good bit colder than average; such is the effect of a decent snowpack on the ground which is a complete reversal of last year.

[North American Weather (U.S.A & Canada)]

Managed 6 inches in Chicago last night. This afternoon we had some unusual Lake Effect Snow; Chicago is not usually on the receiving end of LES. but a band set up and piled up the snow for a couple of hours. This gave another two inches of snow. I've never actually seen LES falling before (having seen the 10 feet aftermath last year), but it can be best described as looking like bits of cotton falling from the sky. I can see why some call it fake snow, but it's real enough to slip over on as I found out...

[North American Weather (U.S.A & Canada)]

Proving to be quite a productive clipper system tonight. We're up to about three inches here in Northbrook, IL tonight and the snow is coming down harder than ever. Lost control of the car completely on the way back from dinner, was travelling in the right direction, but at a 45 degree angle! Fortunately it was a quiet road...

Anyway, could easily be another couple of inches overnight, especially if the lake peps things up somewhat as the winds swing around to give a NNE to NE component. 6 inches isn't beyond the realms of possibility:

[North American Weather (U.S.A & Canada)]

Currently snowing here in Chicago; about an inch so far with another possible five inches to come. A clipper system coming in from the North West feeding us with the moisture and the cold air was already in place. Of course, people are more used to snow over here and they are very good at keeping the roads clear. I've just driven up the Edens Expressway and all is well so far even though the slip roads are covered.

Time for some pictures later on...

[North American Weather (U.S.A & Canada)]

I would speculate that the milder options will verify -- the storm heading inland here later on Monday will bring a powerful surge of very mild air across the Rockies into the central plains but beyond that, the blocking complex to our north here is gradually weakening. Normal service should be resumed soon, this trend of super-cold air blasting down out of central arctic regions of Canada seems to be shutting down as part of the source region air mass leaks away in a retrograde jet over Alaska into oblivion, circulating around in the Pacific at high latitudes ... sort of the Atlantic waste of cold air situation applied over here for a change ... and I think that once the western block breaks down, the flow will revert to the mild coast-to-coast fast westerly type that confines wintry weather to central and northern Canada once again.

Seems to be the option that most mets are going for. Quite a similar pattern to last year in that respect, although it has been considerably colder in the East during November and December. Last year saw a cold first week of December for the Midwest especially and then a zonal pattern set in for quite some time with the cold air being locked in place until the middle of January. Of course, this then led into a cold February, but it'll be interesting to see how this year pans out. Last year was particularly snowless for the North East so hopefully there'll be a bit more action this year.

[North American Weather (U.S.A & Canada)]

Extremely unsettled across the North West US/South West Canada and the North East. Two powerful storms, but the one off the West coast of the continent looks like a monster:

This storm has brought gusts of wind in excess of 100mph on the Oregon coast line with hurricane force winds widely recorded along the coast. In fact, the weather stations have raised hurricane wind flags!

Also a very sharp temperature gradient as pointed out by Nick yesterday:

You can see where Vancouver got its snow from and why they are now concerned about flooding as snow levels look to rise quite rapidly.

[North American Weather (U.S.A & Canada)]

Hiya Peeps,

We had snow here yesterday with more forcast today. From the point of view of a recent immigrant to this nation I am over the moon. Temps were at -4 (not as low as other parts of Canada I know but low enough to freeze ass) and they got down further overnight to -10. Windchill made it feel -22. My hubbies beer had turned to slush...he'd left it in the car overnight and just opened it this afternoon .....hubby thinks its great and wants to sell it commercially.....anyone interested .

Reports indicate that this could be a traditional canadian winter and alot colder than previous winters.....here's hoping.

Anyway I thought I post a couple of photos.

Still haven't made a snowman yet...snows quite dry.

TTFN

Hi Debs,

Glad to see you're enjoying the NE winter up there! It's unlikely that you'll be able to make any snowmen; a feature of the snow over here (away from the NW) is that it tends to be very dry and powdery. Not even any good for snowballs!

Looks like staying unsettled for you up there. The storm forming off the NE US tonight looks like hanging around almost bang on top of New Brunswick for 36 to 48 hours. Most PPN seems to be funnelled into Northern New England and Maine, hence the 12 inch+ snow forecasts, but it looks like there should be some more up your way.

Going forward, I don't think I've seen such wide disagreement in the ensembles at such a short range for quite some time. Certainly many forecasts were going for a cold start to December with a switch to milder mid-month. However, looking at the ensembles it looks like the GFS cannot pick a trend at all!

Just look at Chicago:

A clipper system looks to bring snow through Tuesday into Wednesday, but after that all we can say is that it is likely to warm up, but after that you may as well roll a dice!

I'm in Chicago now (my 11am flight from NY was cancelled due to weather) and I reckon that it was the bumpiest ride I've ever had. For about half the flight even the air crew had to sit down! Normally they fly at about 34000, but due to the upper level winds we had to fly at 24000. Given the strength of the storm and the mixing of airmasses I'm not surprised it was so bumpy!

[North American Weather (U.S.A & Canada)]

tks for that Roger, maybe a map of the areas of interest to the two of you, could add even more interest for some of us this end with rather shaky N Merican/Canadian geography?

Having trouble finding anything, but Roger is of course correct. The storm which hit the Midwest yesterday and is on the doorstep of the East Coast entered stage left in Southern California bringing some much needed rain to Arizona and New Mexico before picking up strength and heading up towards Michigan. Some strong WAA associated with this storm:

As a result, the forecast temps for places like Chicago are:

Yesterday: 1oC

Today: 9oC

Tomorrow: -1oC

For New York:

Today: 1oC

Tomorrow: 7oC

Tuesday: 2oC

Incidentally, this Low is projected to pass over the East coast and reform near Connecticut before zipping up North East towards Maine. Accumulations of several inches are forecast for New England with a foot or more possible in parts of Southern Vermont and New Hampshire.

[North American Weather (U.S.A & Canada)]

Snow has now changed over to freezing rain through the centre of the storm:

[North American Weather (U.S.A & Canada)]

Big assed winter storm moving across the US right now. A very potent system indeed sucking up some very mild air and colliding with the much colder airmass as pointed out by Roger:

LLINOIS-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE- DUPAGE-COOK- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF... ROCKFORD...WOODSTOCK...WAUKEGAN... OREGON...DIXON...DEKALB...AURORA... CHICAGO 1054 AM CST SAT DEC 1 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT.

DAMAGING ICE ACCUMULATIONS AND STRONG WINDS LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SNOW AND SLEET...MIXED AT TIMES WITH FREEZING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD NORTHERN ILLINOIS DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO ALL FREEZING RAIN BY EVENING. FREEZING RAIN WILL FALL RATHER HEAVILY AT TIMES RESULTING IN RAPID ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE ON TREES... POWERLINES... AND UNTREATED ROADWAYS.

SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON... PARTICULARLY ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER. HOWEVER...OF MUCH GREATER CONCERN IS EXPECTED DAMAGING ICE ACCUMULATIONS. ONCE THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO FREEZING RAIN...ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE COMMON...WITH SOME LOCATIONS PICKING UP ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING.

SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH THIS EVENING. ICE ACCUMULATING ON TREES AND POWERLINES WILL WEIGH THEM DOWN MAKING THEM EXTREMELY VULNERABLE TO THE STRONG WINDS AND LIKELY RESULTING IN POWER OUTAGES. THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WIDESPREAD AND PROLONGED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS THE WARNING AREA.

IT ONLY TAKES A SMALL AMOUNT OF ICE ACCUMULATION ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS TO MAKE TRAVEL NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE. THE STORM IS QUICKLY APPROACHING AND PREPARATIONS FOR THIS WINTER STORM SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. PERSONS IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERAL DAYS WITHOUT POWER. STOCK UP ON NON-PERISHABLE FOODS... FLASHLIGHTS...BATTERIES...AND MEDICATIONS IN THE EVENT OF PROLONGED POWER OUTAGES.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET... AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

I'm travelling to Chicago tomorrow; could be some delays I'm thinking!

[North American Weather (U.S.A & Canada)]

Lesta, we might have a better idea in a few days time, the average at that time would be similar to London, highs of 6-9 C and lows near 2 C with little chance of snow but rain fairly likely. But that's just the long-term average. The pattern developing looks rather mild to me with such a large cold outbreak heading south into central regions of N America, this usually induces a strong SW flow in the east coast regions.

Looks like a cold spell coming up before then though. Many forecasts have been calling for a colder first half of December with a developing trough across the East followed by a milder second half.

The ensemble mean for the GFS shows this:

Having said that there is a lot of noise in the ensembles (steep drop next week; spot the cold front anyone?):

Experience tells me that the period Lesta is talking about can oscillate wildly. Around the same time last year (albeit slightly earlier) we had close to -20oC 850 air overhead and max temperatures of about -2oC with a fierce NW wind and blistering windchill. A couple of days later it was 13oC and fairly pleasant.

Roger is correct that the average max is 7oC in mid-December, with lows averaging 0oC.

[North American Weather (U.S.A & Canada)]

There's certainly a large and quite intense area of cold air developing over Canada:

The first element for any cold shot required for us down in the US. Sooner or later that air will make it's way further South. The 0z shows the cold air intensifying further:

And then further still with hints of a push down towards the North East US:

Some pretty low thickness levels also starting to appear by next week:

If you were in Winnipeg over the next week or so you could expect maxima in the range of -12oC to -7oC (tomorrow is forecast to be -7oC with snow showers). The current reading for Winnipeg is -11oC with light snow.

At the moment I'm in Corpus Christi, TX where I can expect temperatures in the mid 20s this week. A far cry from the snow which delayed me on Saturday morning in El Paso airport in Texas!

[North American Weather (U.S.A & Canada)]

Looks like the cold air is starting to dig in over Canada:

Signs of more prolonged cold possible as well. Some very low 850s possible on that chart!

Having said that, the 18z run is not so favourable as the 12z which showed more agreement for prolonged cold.

Whatever happens, it looks like temperatures for Winnipeg at least are going to fall to average or below from next week. Highs forecast at -1oC next Tuesday and then -3 to -4 thereafter.

Elsewhere, Chicago is around about average with temps of around 8oC and New is below average with temps around 7 to 8oC for the next few days before a warm up.

Meanwhile, October was very warm in the Eastern half of the US:

With records set in Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey and Rhode Island. I know that New York City also equalled its warmest October on record.

[North American Weather (U.S.A & Canada)]

Just got back from the adventure, lots of photos and even movies of big waves to process but too tired to do it now as midnight has come and gone, off to bed and then work so it's going to be 24-36 hours before any of these get onto the net anywhere. Oh well. We did have the blast of westerly winds around noon to 2 pm local time, it promptly cleared up for a time, then hailed for 15 minutes, cleared up again and the winds died down allowing ferry service to resume, so with an extra boat or two they managed to work through the backlog of travellers and we didn't have too long a wait.

Apparently there was a lot more tree damage over on this side than the island, probably because the trees over there have been culled more successfully by previous storms, I suppose, it was certainly windy enough. At one point I was standing on the southern tip of Vancouver Island trying to take some pictures into a 50 knot wind, not the easiest situation for steady hands but we'll see how that turned out ... the preview pictures look alright. Everything has calmed down now and the low is in Alberta, you'll have what's left of it after a few twists and turns in about 10 days time.

Ironically I flew into Vancouver yesterday and spent the night at my relatives in Langley. Anyway as we were drinking up last night I could hear the wind howling around the house. Woke up several times during the night to some pretty impressive wind gusts.

I had to get over to Victoria and, checking the website, found out that the ferries had started running again. As I approached Tsawassen for the 3pm ferry the signs told me that the 3 and 5pm ferries were full with possible waits for the 6pm. I finally drove on to the ferry at 8 Pm...

It seems that although some wet and windy weather was forecast, the strength of the storm was underestimated; gusts in Victoria reached 100KPH.

Still haven't made that drink Roger; hopefully we have a new customer on the mainland in Vancouver; if you're really lucky I'll let you thrash me at golf sometime!

Had a few showers here in Victoria this evening; on the 14th floor overlooking the bay.

[North American Weather (U.S.A & Canada)]

The first snowfall event of the season (beyond LES) currently taking place here in the NorthEast. A fast moving system from the West moved to the Mid-Atlantic and deepened rapidly moving up the East coast. Currently in New York it's 5oC and raining steadily, but about 50 miles to the North the rain has turned to snow. The radar image below is about 2 hours out of date; the current mix line is a bit North of HPN on the map (but I was having trouble capturing the latest map.)

[North American Weather (U.S.A & Canada)]

The first Lake Effect Event has set in today, beginning in the Northern part of Wisconsin by Lake Superior. As the cold digs in and thicknesses fall tonight this will turn rain to snow on the Upper Peninsula of Michigan and later on into Lower Michigan. Could be a few inches (4-6) over Northern WI/UP MI by the time the wind blows through. The system responsible moves through quite quickly though which sets up areas off Lake Erie and Ontario for Tuesday/Wednesday. Less in the way of snow here; more likely a mix, although high ground will probably seem some accumulation.

Also, first freeze of the season spreading south; as far as Atlanta, Ga forecast to be just above freezing.

For Kold Weather, forecast windchills for International Falls tomorrow are -10oC, but winds look set to calm down towards Winnipeg where the temperature should sneak just above freezing. Forecasts for the next week show temperatures remaining above freezing for the next week.

[The very cold Halloween of 1934]

Fantastic!

I was swapping Hallowe'en stories with someone here yesterday saying about how it isn't so big in the UK. I told her that my mum's idea of a Hallowe'en costume was a white bedsheet over my head with two eye-holes cut into it and some string around my neck: a ghost!

She told me that she did the same for her daughter a few years ago, but it was so cold that her breath which was condensing on the sheet froze and stuck to her lips! Apparently the temperature was about 0oF that night (@-18oC). She asked me if that ever happened to me....

[North American Weather (U.S.A & Canada)]

Agreement starting to appear for the cold front for next week. Winnipeg ensembles showing a short, sharp shock for next Tuesday/Wednesday:

A high of -2oC for Tuesday and -1oC for Wednesday is forecast before just climbing above freezing on Thursday. Dry air though, so no snow in sight...

The cold air spreads south and East. Incidentally, it seems to linger the longest in the East; ensembles show New York staying below -5 for four days. It sill still be comfortable above freezing there of course!

[Warmest November Day?]

Indeed it has Don.

Just for interest, here are the record coldest days of November

NOVEMBER

-23.3C -10F Braemar (Grampian) 14 Nov 1919

-22.8C - 9F Braemar 15 Nov 1919

-21.7C - 7F Perth (Tayside) 14 Nov 1919

-21.1C - 6F West Linton (Borders) 14 Nov 1919

-21.1C - 6F Balmoral (Grampian) 14 Nov 1919

-20.9C - 5.6F Kinbrace (Highland) 30 Nov 1985

Interesting that only the Scottish areas got the coldest temperatures, as opposed to later months where the likes a Shropshire featured. A sure sign that the PFJ tends to move southward quite quickly, but never early enough to make an impact on southern frost hollows. A bit of pattern matching might be of interest

Some pretty impressive lows there!

Just for fun, I'll throw in the record low for my current location:

Helena, Montana - record -39oC on 16th November 1959. It seems that November 1959 had an extremely severe spell even for here:

November 4th: -21

November 5th: -21

November 12th: -29

November 13th: -37 (2nd coldest on record)

November 15th: -36

A particularly punishing period of weather it would seem and one of the top ten coldest on record. Incidentally, November 1985 was the coldest of all...