WhiteFox
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Well there you go, our 2nd storm..
Perhaps this season is just a late starter?
Kain
Not really, just a bit more normal than last year! Some stats I heard yesterday: 98% of major hurricanes form after July 17th. 88% of storms form after July 17th. Last year was the only year in the past 8 (or 10, can't remember!) where more than two storms formed before July 17th. Last year was exceptional!
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Current forecasts are suggesting that Alberto will not make hurricane category. Winds are forecast up to 70mph.
However, up to ten inches of rain are still forecast for parts of Florida.
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Further to earlier information, the cold front which passed over Illinois yesterday continues to head south. This is why Alberto will move to the East from the current position.
Some good stuff on this site.
Also, take a look at this image showing cloud depths. A perfect illustration of the effect of wind shear. Bear in mind that the centre of the system is to the North of the Yucaton Peninsula. The Western side is almost non-existent.
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Current forecasts on The Weather Channel are going for land fall in Florida over the next 24-36 hours. Alberto is expected to head North and then North East. They're calling this a 'rainmaker' and winds are expected to max out at about 40 mph. Potential for up to 10 inches of rain in parts of Florida though. Wind shear is preventing further development, with heaviest rain expected to the East-South-East of the storm centre. To the North and West, there is very little development. Very interesting graphic despicting this has just been shown on TWC.
Tampa is currently more than 8inches short on rainfall, so rain is welcome, but not this much so quickly!
Addit, forecasts are going for Alberto to clear the Florida panhandle by Wednesday.
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Interesting one this one isn't it. Although I tend to think after all this cool weather we have had that summer will be a wash out I also tend to remember Spring 1976 that was no great shakes either. Often wet and cool. In fact many areas had snow on June 1st that year. Then we had the best summer we have ever had. Could there be a repeat?
Surely you're confusing the June snowfall with 1975? June 1st 1976 was much too warm to have any snowfall with 850 temperatures above freezing everywhere:
Summer 1976 followed on from a significant period of drought. Although we are also in a drought situation, I don't think it's as bad as 1975-6:
I'm not sure of the exact figures but the BBC reports that the rainfall for the period October 1975 to August 1976 was 235mm.
Using Philip Eden's site with Hampstead as a guide, rainfall was 339mm from October until the end of April. This obviously does not take into account the May totals.
As with always looking for winter 1963 we always seem to be looking for Summer 1976! I guess a repeat of summer 1976 is more likely than a repeat of Winter 1963, but the odds are still long I think!
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Not quite sure how you work that one out. Just a hunch I guess.
Evidently going for a very dry summer!
I can't think of many summers where we didn't have at least one week of unsettled weather. Brave call indeed!
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I'm in the US myself at the moment and I know that the storms down south have been big news over the past few days.
There were even reports of a tornado in South-West Ohio!
CNN showed a graphic of why the situation is so active: A big depression sitting over the Great Lakes pumping cold air south, and warm air being pumped up from the South. Throw in heat coming west (Phoenix forecast to hit 100oF today) and a bifurcated jet-stream and you have the ingredients for storm-chasers' dreams!
The depression over the Great Lakes is forecast to be in-situ for quite a few days, so a bit dull here in upstate New York...
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Have fun guys!
I was out in the US for the past couple of weeks and it already seems pretty lively. If the rest of the season is as active as it has been already, then you're in for a lively time!
I should be out in the US again soon, so I'll keep an eye on the forecasts. I love the doppler radars over there!
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23 inches measured in here in Central Park NY this afternoon. That makes it the second most ever, with only December 1947 with 28 inches recording more!
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I think what has been unusual this winter (more so in comparison with last winter - so far) is the lack on snow (represented by the snow reports - seems alot more quiet this year).
On current trends, there'll be a rain reports thread coming soon. At last: something on which the South-East may be able to lead!
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As for the 6th January- try 1982.
A truly memorable winter all round!
The last widespread White Christmas in 1981, certainly in terms of lying snow.
The noticeable thing about the start of January 1981 is the proximity of the cold and mild air masses.
Looking at the 850hPa for January 1st 1982 the block is beginning to establish with large amounts of cold pooling to the north and North East:
By the 3rd January, the chart may look a bit concerning to inexperienced watchers with what could be called Bartlett High to the south and mild South Westerly winds pushing in from the Atlantic. Of course, the Artic High is just beginning to assert it's influence and height is alreay up to 1050MB over Greenland:
Once again the boundary between the mild and very cold air is stark:
And by the time we reach January 6th 1982, the cold air has easily won the battle with milder air:
For me the 850hPA temperature chart for the 7th illustrates just what a huge difference three hundred miles can make. Take a look at the 0oC Isotherm over Northern Italy and how close it is to the -15 isotherm:
In terms of weather, I know the statistics have been covered many times on this site, but they never fail to impress:
30-50cms of snow fell across Wales and the Midlands on the 8th and 9th as mild air battled the cold air. Perhaps the best example of the much fabled cold v mild battle?
Braemar recorded a temperature of -27.2, an equal record on the morning of the 10th. The maximum was -19.1oC a record low maximum. Brrr!
The maximum for Benson was -10 on the 13th January (my birthday!).
Personally I remember that January for the depth of snow. I cannot remember deeper snow than we had that year. I know other members have posted a few shots of snowdrifts from that January. I wonder if we'll ever see the like again, seeing as even in the fabled harsh winters of the late seventies/early eighties it was exceptional?
Another memory is of icicles forming on eaves. They were so big we had sword fights against each other using them! I also remember freezing some of them and getting them out in the summer.
It is also the only time I have seen -15oC forecast over Southern England. I don't think I've even noticed -15 forecast anywhere in Britain since then!
A particular feature of this spell was the keenness of models of the day to end the cold spell. Milder air was forecast to take over a couple of times; in fact the blizzard of the 8th/9th was supposed to spell the return to milder air!
Definitely an exceptional month, the severity of which is not truly reflected in the final CET of 2.6oC. In fact, January 1997 recorded a CET of 2.5 and I cannot remember anything about that January!
Ironically, by the 6th February, a Bartlett had become established over Europe, which just goes to show that it isn't a modern phenomenon!
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6th of January 1994 is an interesting one as the forecasters were caught out by a heavy snowfall to the north and west of London that evening.
I think 15cm fell around parts of Hertfordshire. Got the Times clipping of it, it was on their front page the next morning.
I was trying to work out the date of a surprise snowfall, I think in December 1999. I'd been in Nottingham, ironically bemoaning the lack of snowfall in the South to my friend, and was driving back to Reading on a Saturday night. As I approached Daventry it started snowing lightly. By the time I reached Banbury and the M40 it was snowing moderately. At the time I think a front had stalled over the south and turned to snow giving about an inch or two. I don't think it had been forecast.
Looking at the charts it may have been around this time:
Do you have any records of this one Mr Data?
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fascinating stuff. How about the previous century?!! That did have some memorable weather at times.
regards
John
I'll defeinitely take a look. It's interesting going back through the old charts. May need some help once I go back past the early eighties though!
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Hi WF - nice comparative topic; but more at home in the historic weather section <_<
Posted far too early anyway; Completely the wrong button...
More to do yet!
January 6th 2001:
A very unsettled start to 2001 with a succession of Low Pressures battering the UK. This followed on from a very cold end to December 2000 with widespread snowfall between Christmas and the New Year. Luckily, it doesn't look like this pattern will be repeated this year!
The corresponding 850hPa chart shows -2 to -4 air over much of the country. Incidentally, an extremely brief Easterly followed on January 11th, after which a high pressure stationed itself over Central Europe and sat there teasing us with SE winds and no real cold. Our good friend the PFJ prevented any ridging to Greenland and stopped and really cold air reaching us. Sound familiar? Let's hope this does not happen this January:
Fast forward a year to January 6th 2002 and we have an all too familiar picture for the even larger teapot:
High pressure sitting over the near continent, low pressures steaming through the gap between Iceland and Greenland, and not a touch of frost in sight!
This followed on once again from a very cold end to December. January 2002 was very mild overall recording a final CET of 5.5. Incidentally, the rest of winter was no better: February was exceptionally mild at times and recorded a CET of 7.0, a full 2.8oC above average. A classic example of how a persistent Bartlett can completely wreck any chances for a cold winter. I've just counted 42 days of mild South to South Westerly winds from the chart shown to the end of February 2002! Out of 53 days that's a pretty zonal flow... The only exceptions are very brief North-Westerlies and one very short Easterly.
2003. What a difference a year makes! I don't really remember this one myself, but it seems we had a slack Easterly flow on this date in 2003:
-6 to -8 air is shown over much of the country, and the follwing day the -10 isotherm makes a brief foray into East anglia and Kent. A cold pool over Europe desperately tries to reach us, but eventually the High pressure collapses back into.... you guessed it, a Bartlett! After this we settle into a familiar run of South Westerlies with regular Low Pressures passing by. The difference this year is the occasional system making it into Scandinavia and brining a Northerly toppler; something which was not achieved at all in 2002! I also think the infamous M11 "whiteout" occurred around about this time.
February brought about a couple of attempts at Easterlies, but the cold air typically passed to the south of us...
January 6th 2004 brings us another quasi-Bartlett. Not quite a classical Bartlett, beacuse the SLP chart shows an area of high pressure over Western Russia:
A fairly strong Siberian High is shown lurking over WEstern Russia throughout January, but as so often seems to be the case in recent years, the Atlantic is just too active for it to progress Westwards. Late January 2004 also brings the infamous "thundersnow" event, which seems to have impressed everyone except those in Abingdon and Nottingham (where I was in hospital at the time!). Shortly after this, the situation collapses into a classic Bartlett:
At this point I'm sure many people would write off the rest of winter, but for the first time in a few years the Bartlett High migrates Northwards over the UK and eventually travels far enough North to allow a brief Easterly into the far south. After this, it sets up in the Mid Atlantic, allowing Northerly topplers for a while, including one lasting a few days towards the end of the month. This is the first time I can remember any sort of mid-atlantic block becoming established during winter months for some time.
Finally, January 6th 2005. More repeats:
Not much needs to be said about last January other than very Zonal and remember overnight minima in the region of 13oC?
Of course, the following February was interesting...
All in all, not much to get depressed about so far this year. Past winters have seen cold periods between Christmas and New Year followed by very bland zonality and Bartlett Highs for weeks. If we get another Easterly this week, then it certainly looks like a wholly different setup to the even larger teapot.
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Much has been made of the even larger teapot debate and whether this year will buck the trend. It's certainly been interesting, but some people will never be satisfied!
In the spirit of adventure I thought I'd compare every January 6th for this century with projections for this Friday.
Starting with January 6th 2000:
A very mild January 6th for 2000. This followed on from an average December which brought a stormy Christmas Day. The corresponding 850hPa chart shows the +5 isotherm lapping the East coast with all but North-West Scotland and Ireland under positive 850hPa air.
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Quality stuff and thanks for the effort!
Will be playing around with the figures quite a bit methinks...
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What does "Cold zonality" refer to? Is it a particular synoptic setup?
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Many thanks to everybody. Highly informative and interesting. Although it would be nice to get a 1987/1991 style winter I won't hold my (condensed!) breath...
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For anybody waiting for the rain band, I've just driven from Nottingham to Reading and can give a bit of an update.
Thin-high cloud from Nottingham as far as Daventry. Moon visible, but blurred. Temperature rose from just below freezing in Nottingham city centre to 2.5oc in Daventry. From Daventry to Banbury, cloud thickening, signs of precipitation by the M40. Temperature 3.5oc.
High Wycombe, recent rain, temperature 3.5.
Now back in Reading where it's been raining/drizzling all day, temperature currently at 3.5oc.
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I was going to ask why the winters have become so "snowless" over the past fifteen years. As ever, TWS has just about answered every question!
Does anybody know what the synoptic setups were for the cold winters? I remember the 1981 (I think it was 1981 or 1982) winter when temperatures down here in the south East plummeted to -18oc overnight. I also remember the huge icicles hanging from drainpipes and using them to have mock sword fights with my brothers.
Another favourite was pouring buckets of water onto footpaths which would then set hard within a few minutes creating a perfect Ice-rink.
We moved over from N Ireland in 1980 and our first Christmas in Reading was almost tropical. My mum still remembers us walking around in t-shirts.
The last really severe winter in the South East which I can remember was 1987. Easterly winds brought snow showers in for a few days followed by a general spell of snow overnight on a Tuesday (funny how I can still remember the exact day!). I was a member of the weather club at secondary school at the time and the teacher in charge of the club came into our science lesson to explain how the dry, cold air from the East was picking up warmth and moisture from the North Sea thus giving us heavy snow. That same day there was a gas leak and we were off school for three days. I remember taking my younger sister to school on a sledge during that period.
I can also remember a couple of occasions during the early eighties when the diesel in the car of our neighbours froze!
In the mid-nineties I moved to Nottingham to go to university. I can remember each winter! 1995 was a big disappointment. I think we had one cold spell with snow right at the end of winter in March.
1996 was much better. There was snow in January which didn't last too long. However, in February, we had a spell of North Easterlies. On one particular Wednesday I remember that Nottingham Forest were playing at home to Tottenham Hotspur in an FA Cup replay. East Midlands news had a reporter at the ground saying there had been a few snow showers during the day but nothing too serious.
I opened the front door at about 7PM and saw heavy snow swirling around on the road outside. This settled a little bit and left the classic "two black lines" down the road where cars left tyremarks. The real event happened about an hour or so later. Another shower hit and the snow came down really heavy. I was on a bus going up a hill and the bus was really struggling to make it. We ended up having to walk back home as the police had closed the road back to my house which was on a very small hill. Back at the football they had to abandon the match as the ref could not see either linesman! Anyone watching Sky Sports that night would have seen pictures of the commentator looking like a snowman. They still show the picture occasionally when looking back at classic moments. Looking at the radar later showed a finger of bright echoes travelling across Noittingham for about an hour and a half. A few miles North and a few miles South missed out completely.
Is there any reason why we don't get these winters any more (I mean the really cold ones like in the early eighties)? I know people point to global warming, but surely the synoptic setup could still occur to give us a lengthy period of cold? I can remember a few Mays recently when I've looked at the charts and seen a high pressure last over Scandinavia for weeks and wishing that it was January or February.
A bit long-winded I'm afraid...
Just a hunch I guess.
Tropical storm Beryl
in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide
Posted
Without wishing to spoil weather-watchers' interest, I'm hoping this system either doesn't form or steers well clear of New York; I have to fly into LaGuardia on Friday and the delays will be horrendous if there is heavy rain and high winds!