WhiteFox
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With respect to Roger, you've been pretty spot on for the North America forecast so far. February has been bone-chillingly cold for many areas. I enjoy all LRFs, and acknowledge that some people put a lot of work into them so keep it up.
Just awaiting a decent snowstorm for the East Coast to tie up the season nicely!
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LES is forecast to carry on into the weekend with a break when the storm system passes through. After that, another Arctic front follows and the pattern reloads. I'm heading up there next weekend. Unofficial reports of 111 inches of snow in parts of Oswego county with regular thundersnow. Some good pics can be found on this thread...
Incidentally, this is the latest radar from the area. The band you can see to the North of Rochester and Syracuse has been fairly steady, wavering North and South occasionally. Rates of four to five inches an hour have been reported at times!
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Some big totals posted. Take a look at the LES totals since February 3rd:
Also, I was wrong about Erie. There is still just enough open water to generate some snow, albeit much lighter than that from Lake Ontario:
Classical Lake Effect bands in evidence over Ontario with lighter snow coming into Buffalo.
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Must be some monster snow showers coming out iof the lakes there, temps stilldecently above 0C plus you've got some really impressive cold air digging down still its got to make some utterly insane snow showers at times when the flow is unstable enough.
I really can't wait to be able to go out there one winter, today has only heightened the watn to do it, my little 3 and a half inches isn't much to note out there as well, esp compared to what some place shave had over the last few days, I'd have a heart attack probably once I see falls close toa foot!
The real player lately has bee Lake Ontario; the Tug Hill Plateau to the South East of Watertown is the place to go for these setups as you have the long fetch over Lake Ontario plus a bit of elevation to aid the precipitation. They have had over five feet there since last weekend I believe.
Erie has shut down with most of the surface covered with ice, albeit not total cover.
Michigan still offers a lot of snow, as does Huron, but most of the Huron snow goes into Canada so we don't hear much about it in the US.
I was in Buffalo in the aftermath of the October event and as with all Lake Effect events the difference between a few miles is enormous. Having said that, a longer period Lake Event will tend to meander a bit more.
Anyway, I'm off to Niagara next weekend, so I expect to see a fair bit of snow when I'm up there!
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Parts of Canada and USA, east of the great lakes have received upto 5 feet of snow in the past 2/3 days because of the lake effect, with more to come...now that would cause traffic problems
The Tug Hill plateau has been absolutely plastered as well as areas close to Syracuse. Lake Eriehas just about shut down as it's pretty well frozen over now, but Ontario remains fully open for business! Looks like more Lake Effect snow kicking in next week after the storm goes through.
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Quite a lare turnaround in the ensembles over the past few days. Looks like the GFS has been overdoing the return to mildness. About a week ago the GFS was trending for significantly warmer weather by the 14th with 850s forecast to be around 0oC or above for Chicago and New York and pretty close for Minneapolis. Now we are looking at temps staying generally below -10 for the next week at least. A case of the GFS being too progressive!
However, the Sub tropical jet is breaking through the block in Southern California.
Looking at the developing situation from yesterday, the forecast track has moved further north so that New York is in line for the ppn.
The chart for Monday 12th February doesn't look particularly ominous, but the thing to look at is the Low developing towards the mountain west; as this travels East it will draw moisture from the Gulf and develop further:
Chart for Monday 12th 06z:
24 hours later you can see that the injection of moisture has led to the storm system developing as it heads East. The key to this chart for the East coast is the exact position of the High Pressure. If the block is too far west then rain beckons for much of the East coast. Situation on Tuesday 12th 06z:
At this stage the storm track is not ideal for a classical East Coast snowstorm. Ideally we'd like the system to travel more ENE to just off the Georgia Coast before pivoting NE and running up the coast. The lack of significant Mid Atlantic blocking is our enemy here. As it is, we have the Canadian high in place which prevents the inland runner which would deliver rain for the East coast and snow inland:
The situation above shows the elongated storm system sitting just off the East Coast. The North Easterly winds are there, and the PPN exists. Aill it snow given this chart? Let's look at the requirements:
Firstly, 850 tempertures:
For New York this is not promising. Ideally we'd like to see more of a tilt with the cold air coming into the system a bit more.
Secondly, PPN:
When I checked 12 hours ago this was missing. Now we have the PPN. Will it be of the right type though?
Air thickness also looks questionable. Not having the 528dm line is not an issue in itself, but the proximity of the 546 line is a bit more worrying.
Surface temperatures:
The 0oC line runs just into Long Island; further upstate looks below freezing.
Finally, dewpoints. These have been well below freezing since last Saturday, being as low as -20oC or so at times. Will they hold?
The answer on current forecasts is marginal at best.
So, going on today's 06z GFS only, New York could be looking at some snow followed by rain, or even freezing rain. Upstate could also be looking at freezing rain, with snow further to the North and West. The exact track of the system is crucial as it could still miss New York completely to the South, or provide a SECS or MECS event (Significant East Coast Storm or Major East Coast Storm - HECS looks unlikely where H = Historic). Up to 8 inches would be a good return I think, particularly as the storm is followed by another shot of Arctic air and further storm possibilities...
I read with interest the details about the possible event next week in the NYC area? Im there between 15/02 & 20/02 next week, this storm, if it does turn out to be a direct hit for the NYC, it forecast to be something to keep an eye on?
cheers
Barring a two foot snowfall you should be ok by the 15th. I'd be more concerned if you were landing on the 14th as flight delays look inevitable whether it be rain or snow. Thursday looks to be drier, but of course this can easily change by next week!
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Morning everyone
Im having problems , with the view new posts , and my assistant, also i tryed to download a image this morning and it would not let me , any suggestions please!!!
Ive just emptied my attachment file , and ive emptied my inbox in pms and its still coming up as error
nigel
I'm having problems uploading attachments which I guess may have been temporarily suspended due to traffic. Don't quote me on that though!
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Just going back to what TCC was saying about the cold over here earlier. We haven't been above freezing here in New York since the early hours of Saturday morning. The temperature was down to about -14oC overnight Sunday. Despite all this, there is no hoar frost. Incredibly dry air is responsible for this; dew points have been extremely low for the whole period. Very low humidity.
I was going to chart the possible development for next week, but am currently unable to post attachments. Will update at a later time!
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Brutally cold here in northern Illinois. High on the 5th was -18c after a morning low of -27c....wind chill made it feel more like -35c!!!
Did you pick up much in the way of snow yesterday? The one feature of this cold spell has been the lack of snow. The clipper system which passed you yesterday went well to the South of New York. Means we're still locked in under the dry and very cold air. It's currently -8oc here with a dewpoint of -18oC.
Looks like the widespread warm up has been placed on hold for now; up until yesterday the 850s were forecast to rise comfortably above 0 for Chicago and New York by the 14th February; now there are only 2 members touching 0oC with Chicago showing nothing North of 0oC until the nether regions of FI. The chill goes on for a bit longer.
Doesn't look like being quite as cold, but the good news is that the Southern Jet kicks into life which will inject more moisture into the cold air.
All eyes are looking at next week when NYC has another shot at a storm; at this distance it may miss to the South again, but then again may still give us a dumping. Current forecasts going for Philadelphia southwards, but every chance of nudging North for a direct hit.
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I am surprised this thread hasn't been busier PP, terrible event.
Changing the subject slightly i had no idea that NW is larger than the Eastern US forum member-wise
Russ
Pretty severe storms. I was watching them develop on the radar and there were tornado watches in effect for the whole region, plus several tornado warnings further West earlier in the day. I guess there are lessons for people living in those areas which are usually less prone than the traditional Tornado Alley areas.
As for the Eastern US forum, less members, but more active. Not unusual for more than 1000 members to be online at once. You think it's hard keeping up on here sometimes?
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Well we did miss the snow, but man it was bitterly cold! Thursday and Friday was okay, max temps were about 2 or 3 degrees. Then we had some rain and sleet on Friday evening which heralded extremely cold artic air! Max temp on Sat was minus 5!! With a wind chill on top! Yesterday the max got up to -7. I've never experienced cold like that, everytime the wind touched your face it felt like pins and needles. But it was awesome though!
It's looking like staying cold over the NE for a few days yet, with possibly some snow flurries in the next couple of days. Anyway I'll leave the analysis to WF
The cold here has to be experienced to be believed! Today was the coldest day yet; about -8oC with a biting wind. I had to go up to Parssipanny in New Jersey today and it was even colder! Looking at a low of about -13 to -14oC tonight and that should be the worst of the cold out of the way. We're looking at getting above freezing on Friday.
It was quite strange landing back in LaGuardia on Friday night to rain having spent a week in Chicago where the river has frozen and Lake Michigan is icing up!
The graphic shows the impact of the recent cold spell on Lake temps. Having said that, the late arrival of winter this year means that there is still less ice than normal and the Lake Effect machine remains in full force. In the Tug Hill plateau South East of Watertown, there has been an estimated four feet of lake effect snow from Lake Ontario...
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Lol you thought the yanks would know better by now.
No way. Every time there is a bit of snow you see loads of pictures on the TV of cars going off the road, or sliding down hills into other cars. To be fair it is usually in areas where they are not used to it: Seattle, or the South. I was in Minneapolis a couple of weeks ago where many roads are generally snow covered from December to March and you wouldn't see anything like that; of course it helps that Minneapolis is flatter than East Anglia!
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Tonight provides a good example of why it so hard to call upcoming snow events in this pattern. We have been watching some potential for a few days and forecasts called for up to an inch tonight. For once this winter, it has verified:
Not a lot, and I'm in Chicago so I'm missing it (we have our own system to look forward to tomorrow night), but the large scale charts barely show this system:
More local charts do show events more clearly however:
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Looking at the charts for the upcoming cold spell next weekend, all I can say is that they look impressive!
The polar vortex shifts over Hudson Bay:
This opens the door for the coldest air of the season to flood into the upper Midwest:
Some extremely low thickness over Minnesota and the Northern Plains:
This spreads to the East Coast by Monday, albeit slightly modified, so it looks like tcc may be feeling the cold a bit on his last day in New York!
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Now in Chicago where there is certainly no danger of rain for the forseeable future! Current temperature is about -7oC with another 'clipper' system reinforcing the cold air tomorrow into Tuesday. The coldest air of the season looks like arriving here this weekend. Check out the 850s:
It'll be cold, with a bit of snow. Current forecasts calling for an inch overnight tomorrow, but other than bits and pieces, nothing substantial. Looks like being a cold but dry second half of winter for Chicago.
As for New York, the picture is still very unclear. Next weekend provides the first shot of interest. A developing storm in the South West is forecast to move East during the week, hitting the East coast on Friday. The northern edge of the storm will be of snow. The question lies as to where the Northern edge will be. The models are understandably struggling with this one. For New York, we are looking at several options:
1. Rain
2. Snow then rain
3. Snow then rain then snow
4. Rain then snow then rain etc....
You can see why it's so hard to call! Beyond this a cold shot comes through which looks to last 5-6 days. This could also provide some interest going forward if we get a system develop in conjunction with the cold. The key, as ever, is whether we can get a coastal system. So far, no good, but February is usually a good month for snow...
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Well, we've gone from a maxmimum temperature of -7oC on Friday, to overnight rain here tonight in New York. It's beginning to look like a record will be set this year in much of the North East for the least snowfall recorded in a season. The rain this evening is only light, but it's a real kick in the teeth after such a cold, albeit short, spell of weather. To me, it does not bode well for any storms which eventually do develop and head up the East Coast; rain rather than snow? Put in context, New York averages 29 inches of snow each winter, and Boston considerably more (@40 I think). So far this year we have had 0.3 in New York and just under one inch in Boston. Winter cancel as they say over here...
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Going completely off topic, which bar is the best in your view that's a true american bar? (if you know what I mean!)
I'm rather fond of my local bar. I can go in at 11.30 at night for a quick beer and stagger home at about 4am...
In a genuine American bar, by which I mean those away from tourist areas, the people are very friendly. Also, make sure you tip well. The general rule over here is at least a Dollar a drink. Sounds like a lot, but if you tip well and make an effort to chat to the barman/woman you'll get every third round free; something which only happens in New York City. Many barmen get paid no salary and rely solely on tips, so bear that in mind!
With regards to cold spells, today was the coldest maximum in New York since January 2005. Yes, there looks to be some very cold air potentially moving down through the Midwest next week. I've been watching this for a few days now. Looking at the ensembles, and I'm a bit drunk to post them right now, they are the sort where it's hard to differentiate between the temperature and precipitation lines! Suffice to say, Minneapolis is possibly looking at -30oC 850s for five days or so, with the warmer runs going for about -25.
Talk about inversions? 850s for Minneapolis yesterday were +5oC. The maximum temperature was 0oC...
As for snow in New York, possible for Sunday and Monday this weekend (maybe an inch or two if we're lucky). Also next weekend is very much up in the air still. Either looking at up to 8 inches of snow or very wet weather. I'll keep an eye on the situation and update towards midweek.
I'm off to Chicago on Sunday, so I'm looking forward to maximum temps of -7 until Wednesday when we get a balmy -2oC...
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Thanks WF, all to play for still! I'll read your comments with increased interest next week!
It'll almost certainly be cold, so bring warm clothes! Nothing like walking down Broadway on a cold day with the tall buildings funnelling the extremely cold wind...
If you fancy a pint to warm you up let me know!
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Currently -11 here in New York with a wind chill of -22. Going to be the coldest day for over two years here today... high temperature of -7oC forecast. Positively balmy! Certainly Saturday will feel positively balmy at +4oC!
Having said that, I'm off to Chicago again on Sunday, and the maximum temperature through to Tuesday is -6oC before reaching the dizzying heights of 0oC on Wednesday.
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Thanks for the updates, it's always a pleasure to read what's happening across the pond!
A question for WF or Roger, I'm travelling to New York on 01st Feb for 3 nights and I was wondering what the prospects are for snow? I've seen on Accuweather they're expecting sleet on the Friday with possibly some snow on the Sunday (the day I have to fly back!) does that look right?
I understand there might be a major snow storm sometime next week, any further info on this?
Cheers guys!
I think the setup is changing slightly. At the moment we have a fairly cold, but dry setup for the Mid-Atlantic/New York/Boston region. Looking at forecasts going forward, it does seem as if we may be moving towards a pattern with more moisture.
If the cold air can stay in place, which at the moment looks promising, then the probability of a snowstorm increases. The thing about the East coast storms is that they are extremely difficult to pick up from more than 5 days out. Currently the GFS is pointing at a potential storm developing to the South which would take the classic track East and then up the East coast for the weekend of 1st Feb. The question is whether other models will come on board.
February will almost always provide one decent storm of 8 inches+, but with the high SSTs there is always the potential for bigger storms; there is also the problem that the higher temps may make an event more marginal.
We're expecting up to an inch later on today with the Lake Effect Machine being so active, but this will never really provide much in the way of snow as it has to travel so far to reach here and a slight change in wind direction makes all of the difference.
Addit: Looking at the GFS ensemble from the 06a you can see that the operational run points to the possibility of a storm around about the 2nd Feb. Temperatures are marginal however, at about -5oC. Could be the potential for several inches of concrete (as they call it here), dry snow with a slightly different track, or mostly rain. Very much up in the air at the moment.
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New York looks really bitter by Friday with maxes reading -8C
Any news on snow for there wf?
Am I right in saying that if New York remains snowless until the end of month all sorts of records will be broken
We haven't been totally snowless. There was a dusting on the ground last Friday and Saturday morning. Total snowfall to date is barely 0.3 inches though. Hugely below the normal of course.
We're not the only area to record such below average figures though. As has been documented, the whole of the North East has been very unsnowy so far. In Minnesota, the annual dog-sled race was cancelled as there was not enough snow. Many of the typical Lake Effect areas such as Buffalo, South Bend, Syracuse etc. have recorded between 40-70% of normal average snowfall to date (some of these places should have had about 70 inches by now!). Only Marquette, way up in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan has come close with 91% of their 90 inch average.
The story is different in the West of course, with Colorado being above average. New Mexico, Texas and Arizona have also recorded above average falls. A southerly tracking jetstream is responsible; alas, too far south for New York!
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Oxfordshire
Heavy Snow 0100 Wed 24 0800 Wed 24
From the early hours of Wednesday morning heavy snow falls are expected to spread southwards across many parts of central and southern England with up to 5cm of snow accumulating in places,
Definitely deserves the ramp alert. Since when was "up to 5cm" ever classified as heavy snow? That ramp almost classifies as the highest of all: The Daily Express!
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Have you seen the 12z ECM, thats a beast in terms of cold, not that snowy mind you but a real powerful cross-polar link-up establshing by 216hrs with a deep polar vortex sitting itself down over Canada, its a beast for sure on that run!
Looks like there may be some extremely cold weather setting in for the end of January into early February. The 06z (I can't find the 12z) Ensemble from the GFS picks up on this for Chicago:
The average stays below -15oC for most of the run with a few of the warmer runs creeping above -10oC at times. As you say, it does look dry as the source is Arctic rather than polar, but some very cold temperatures associated with this setup!
Before then we have a bitterly cold day to face in New York this Friday. Take a look at the 850hPa chart for Friday:
Throw in a strong N to NW wind and it will feel absolutely frigid! We're looking at a high of about 22oF (-5oC) with a NW wind of 22mph. Definitely a day for the ear mufflers and parka with the hood up!
Incidentally, there are some extremely low thickness levels in upstate New York:
There will be some lake effect snow upstate with this setup, but the fetch isn't particularly long. Albany looks like maxing at -10oC on Friday with snow showers.
As can often be the case on the East coast, this is a fairly transient cold snap and moves on rather quickly so Saturday is forecast to warm up considerably above freezing as evidenced by the ensembles:
After the brief warm up the colder air moves East. It doesn't look particularly cold at this range, but the GFS underdid the cold for this Friday; earlier forecasts were going for touching -15oC in the 850s. It does still look dry however, so New York remains virtually snowless, although we have had a few dustings from rogue lake effect showers which have made it far enough South East.
It does look like the Eastern US will remain in the grip of winter for a bit longer once the second shot of air transfers down. There is a big build up in Canada. If the block in the Western US can hold then the cold air could set in for a while yet... However, if the Aleutian Low develops and strengthens then we may face a flattening of the jet which we saw from December through to mid January. A key point in the winter coming up I think.
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Any snow in the offing for New York whitefox?
Surely it's a record there if it doesn't snow b4 Jan is out
Judging by the beeb 5 day outlook snow there on Monday
Appreciate your thoughts
We had a dusting overnight last night (a stray lake effect shower made it this far) and according to my sister a dusting on Friday morning which was the first measurabke snowfall of the season.
With the current pattern looking set, we should be seeing more snow soon enough. At the moment the jetstream is delivering storm after storm across the Southern States, with DC looking like receiving some snow, but I don't think it'll reach this far north. The important thing is that we have the cold air in place and the high temps in the twenties seem to have disappeared for now! All we need is for a classic storm to track up the East coast from the Gulf and deliver the classic Nor' Easter...
Nothing showing at the moment, but these things can develop very quickly; it does need another slight pattern shift however.
North American Weather (U.S.A & Canada)
in Weather Around The World
Posted
Growing excitement here on the East Coast. GGEM model this morning calling for a HECS (Historic East Coast Snowstorm) next week, with DC being pummelled with over a foot of snow, possibly quite a bit more, and heavy falls right the way up the East Coast with NYC also getting in the action.
It's one run though, and the only one I've seen so far which takes the storm on this track and quite so well developed.
The below chart shows the situation once the main storm has passed:
If this run verified then the snow lovers of the East Coast will rejoice. Personally I'll wait until I see some other models come on board. ECM is closer to GGEM solution, but GFS is still holding back by giving the DC the main thrust with very little to the North. Interesting week ahead.
Of course, I'll be in Florida...