WhiteFox
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A significant Lake Effect Snow event looks to be kicking off over this weekend.
An upper level low has crossed the Great Lakes over night and will help to fuel the development of a storm system off the coast of Maine. This will tighten the pressure gradient and pull in cold North Westerly winds across the Great Lakes:
The winds will be strong and with the lakes still being well above average temperatures, the potential remains for some very active weather. Normally by about February the lakes are too cold for much snow, but the last few winters have been different. With such strong winds, the UP of Michigan and Mainland Michigan look to be in for decent falls. For Ohio, the snow will have crossed three lakes and may dump as much as 18 inches to 2 feet of snow over the weekend. As with all Lake Effect snow, this will be very localised with favoured spots receiving a dumping, and others a few inches.
The usual spots in Upstate New York will also receive some snow: Syracuse from Lake Ontario and to the South West of Buffalo. The wind direction does not give such a long fetch over the water for upstate New York however, so possibly only up to 12 inches for spots around Syracuse, possibly less around Buffalo, with a few showers making it further inland. Perhaps a rogue flurry as far south as New York City...
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I really like Minneapolis. At night the temperature falls weeeelllllll below freezing. Even though it was -5oF (@-20oC) the other night there was no frost on the car because the air was so dry. The snow which fell on Monday night has not even thought of thawing yet as the closest to freezing we've managed is -3oC. So, at worst we have slightly grey powder on the ground where the snow has been walked over a lot or driven over. Apart from the roads; the high of -3oC was enough for the salt to finally melt much of the snow in the bright sunshine. However, we had more snow today; about 2-3cms fell lightly throughout the day. In Britain it wouldn't even have settled because it was so light; here it's so cold that it left another thin covering on the roads and cars.
In summer, there is always a period where the temperature in Minneapolis reaches 100oF (38oC). Summers can be hot and dry. Winters are long and (usually) very cold. In between, a short spring and short autumn sandwich the two main seasons. A proper continental climate.
They have NOAA radios in office buildings and public buildings here. The reason? Tornadoes. The chances of a direct hit from a tornado are slim given the sheer scale of the country, but there was an F2 not far from Minneapolis back in September. In Minneapolis St.Paul airport I was intrigued to see that the toilets double as a 'Severe Weather Shelter'.
So Minneapolis is cool (literally right now!). However, Embarrass, Minnesota is something else. Check these weather stats:
Ave. Max Ave Min Rec. Max Rec Min
Jan 16(-9) -14(-26) 52(11) -57(-49)
Feb 24(-4) -8(-22) 58(14) -60(-51)
Mar 35(2) 6(-14) 69(21) -42(-41)
Apr 51(11) 22(-6) 87(31) -22(-30)
May 65(18) 33(1) 95(35) 10(-12)
Jun 73(23) 43(6) 97(36) 21(-6)
Jul 77(25) 48(9) 98(37) 24(-4)
Aug 75(24) 45(7) 97(36) 21(-6)
Sep 65(18) 36(2) 95(35) 14(-10)
Oct 52(11) 26(-3) 84(29) -7(-22)
Nov 34(1) 12(-11) 75(24) -33(-36)
Dec 20(-7) -5(-21) 57(14) -52(-47)
Pretty nippy during winter! The reason it was brought to my attention was that I commented on Minneapolis being cold to a work colleague and she asked me if I'd ever heard of Embarrass, Minnesota. Looking in the paper this morning, I noticed that Embarrass had recorded the lowest minimum overnight on Tuesday of -34oF (-37oC); still 23oF from the record!
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Although the Midwest has cooled off and wintry weather has hit many places, it is still not particularly cold in the lower 48 states. The Eastern Cities in particular have still lacked any cold spells lasting more than a day or two at the most. New York averages 39oF (4oC) in January and even with this current cooler spell, temperatures are currently only forecast to be below this on three of the next ten days, and even then only just. The story is the same in Chicago with temperatures mostly being around average (0oC) or just above. The same is true for Minneapolis.
So, although winter may have finally arrived in the US, for many parts temperatures are not particularly cold.
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Current obs put the temperature at -1oF (-18oC) at 10pm. That's already 4oF lower than 11pm last night so it looks like the -5oF from last night will be beaten...
Addit: Latest forecast shows temperature not getting above freezing in Minneapolis until next Wednesday at the earliest. May sound extreme, and the current temps are very cold, but it's pretty normal for here. The average January max is -6oC and the average minimum -16oC. The record low for January is a bone-chilling -41oC!
Some people have short memories; at least 3 people have fallen through frozen lakes whilst riding snowmobiles. Seems they forgot that the previous 6 weeks were well above average! Not an unusual story; two guys were lucky to escape with their lives last week in Duluth when their SUV fell through the ice on a lake...
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Landed in Minneapolis last night after a four hour delay leaving New York; low cloud and fog causing severe delays on the East Coast.
Anyway, when I landed the temperature was 3oF at 11pm. As I was driving the car to the hotel it was so cold the condensate on the inside of the windows froze!
I think the temperature fell to about -5oF in the city and -8oF or below here in the suburbs. I reckon that's about -20 to -22oC, so the coldest I've ever felt.
It snowed here on Monday night, and it obviously still remains. The sun shone gloriously all day in perfect clear blue skies, but as the temperature didn't rise above 15oF (-8oC) there was no snow melt whatsoever. Perfect powder absolutely everywhere...
Another clear night tonight, so the temperature is plummeting again, but I don't think it'll be quite so cold tonight; it's forecast to drop to 3oF, but as it's already 5oF I think they may be overcalling the temps!
Tomorrow and Thursday call for highs of 26oF (about -3oC) with snow showers on Thursday. It looks like winter may finally stick around for a while up here as Saturday and Sunday are the only days showing barely above freezing temps before plunging back well below freezing. An inversion is forming under the Artic high pressure as the upper temps are forecast to rise to about -3oC tomorrow.
Elsewhere, Chicago shows signs of something approaching normal winter weather as the temperature hovers around freezing with occasional snow flurries:
As for New York, temperatures vary, but highs look to be in the 40s F rather than the 60s during the warmer days! Still no sign of sustained cold on the East Coast, and no sign of a snowstorm either. A few flurries are forecsat for Saturday, but these are Lake Effect showers which have made it down from Upstate so probably nothing substantial. It does look like being a cold feeling day though as a strong NW to NNW wind sets in and funnels down Manhattan.
In summary, the block to the West of the US looks to be holding for the time being. In fact, the high pressure cell splits and another centre re-forms over the Western States which ensures that colder air will keep feeding down the centre of the country and then East. A proper winter pattern at last and one which I hope will hold through (or should that be thru? http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/ohmy.gif ) to March...
With the attendant 850s:
Much better than the endless Storm systems we saw barrelling straight into the West Coast for the past six weeks; now they are being forced further North and dragging colder Polar or Artic air in their wake.
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Report on the severe ice storm hitting the US on the BBC website: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/6262533.stm
Seems very severe, particularly in Missouri and Oklahoma, and is expected to hit the East Coast tomorrow.
Ice is already falling through upstate New York and parts of New England with snow falling further north. New York won't be hit by the ice as the cold air will not dig in enough before the front clears through. Temperatures are supposd to drop tomorrow and particularly so into Wednesday, but it will be dry.
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In general, I think the frontal zone will now shift a little further south from the northern Great Lakes where it was most of the past two months, to the eastern seaboard, as a deeper trough develops over the Rockies. This has allowed seasonably cold arctic air to occupy most of the western half of the continent now, although the high is eroding and has detached from a stronger high over the Beaufort Sea. The most anomalous cold is actually close to where I am, -8 C being about 10 degrees below normal for here.
Would expect the storm track to run from Arizona to Okahoma and then PA-NJ to near or just south of NYC and Cape Cod in this pattern, but it may rebound north agian later.
This slightly milder wedge moving across the northeast today is the weak remant of the powerful storm that we were talking about in western Canada on Tuesday into Wednesday. The cold front from this will stall out from around Albany to Pittsburgh and then southwest into Tennessee and Arkansas to link up with a slowly developing low in New Mexico and west Texas over the weekend. This is indeed the classic central plains ice storm scenario with very cold air seeping in from the north underneath the Gulf moisture aloft. Worst icing likely to be across south central Missouri into south central Illinois and I could see that half inch being conservative given the long duration of this event, could see one to two inches of ice accretion in places, less as one goes northeast into Indiana and western Ohio, southeast Michigan. Sometimes storms like this send out waves and last for several days before reorganizing on the east coast, other times, they gear up and move northeast to melt the ice quite fast.
Good call Roger. Reports of 2.5 inches of ice across some parts.
Looks like NYC will see a below freezing day on Wednesday which will be the first since December 6th. Just a brief cold shot before temperatures rise again, but currently looking like colder air will again return at the weekend.
I'm off to Minneapolis tomorrow, and normal temperatures have returned there. Looks like a high of -8oC for Tuesday after between 3 and 8 inches of snow into tomorrow evening. Hopefully no problem with the flight getting in!
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Freezing rain currently falling here in Albany NY, but the temperature is on the rise so we should see traditional rain soon.
A huge ice storm is brewing for the Midwest. Some forecasts are going for half an inch of ice or more as a cold front stalls for a couple of days in a line from Detroit back through the Midwest to Oklahoma and Northern Texas. Could be very nasty with widespread power outages and trees coming down. Will update later after work.
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So, we finally have the cold air arriving for the Eastern US (barring any late changes!). What is the outlook for snow? Current charts are pointing towards a possible developing event next week:
At the moment this looks like affecting Virginia an North Carolina, but looking at the Eastern US messageboards, there is a lot of talk about the high SSTs off the East Coast and how this may alter the areas affected significantly and also allow for stronger cyclogenesis. Clearly this chart is 180hrs away, but the possibilities are there...
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I'm pleased to report that a quick glance at the lampost outside my hotel room in Albany, NY has revealed some snow falling. Some of the Lake Effect Snow has made it this far!
Just seen on TWC that Big Moose, way up in the Adirondacks has received 19 inches since Monday night. Just goes to show the impact of Lake effect Snow...
Current doppler radar:
Look at that finger of snow heading for Albany; all those nights back in Reading hoping that a little speck of white will make it West of Heathrow? Pah! No worries!
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Very strong arctic high over the Yukon chilling down to -45 C next few days, and this air mass is moving south to cover all of western Canada (it modifies to near -8 C where I am) for the rest of the week and into the weekend. Very gusty winds behind the cold front of this storm should rip through Canmore about midnight to 0200 and Calgary about 0300 local time, add seven for GMT.
The first signs of the cold shot heading for the High plains of the US and then Eastward...
Thanks for the report Roger. Interesting, if dangerous, conditions ahead.
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A classic Lake Effect Snow pattern in place tonight and tomorrow. Winds from the west picking up moisture over Lakes Erie and Ontario and producing snow. The orientation is not quite ideal for Erie, hence less potential for Western New York, but the set up is pretty good for Lake Ontario, so a well defined streamer is setting up to the North of Syracuse:
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Moscow is having a real blowtorch of a winter so far. They must be smashing all sorts of records over there! Wasn't it only two years ago that they set their then record January temperature of just above freezing? Looking at recent temps and forecasts, it looks like being quite normal this year.
The mosquito problem in St Petersburg this year will probably be horrendous!
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The NCDC have released the data for December and it highlights just how warm December was over here. The overall chart looks like this:
The chart shows that some areas, particularly to the North, recorded temperatures 8-10oF (4-5oC) above average.
By state:
Looking at the chart, five states recorded their warmest December on record:
Minnesota, New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, Connecticut.
The annual chart shows that 36 of the lower 48 states recorded temperatures 'Much Above Normal' by the NCDC definition, with the remaining 12 recording 'Above Normal'. All in all, a very mild year. Not sure where it ranks overall at the moment, but when I find the data I'll report back...
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So it's just their conspicuous consumption then?
Something that you wouldn't find in Britain obviously
...which is the point I'm trying to make!Anyyyyywayy, back on topic. It looks like the eternal mildness of the US winter so far could be ending. A pattern change first identified as a possibility a few days ago looks to be bringing some much more seasonal temperatures to the High Plains and Midwest initially and then spreading further East. The ensembles for Minneapolis show the initial thrust of cold air which will be working into the Dakotas and Montana in the next 36 hours:
Much more seasonal and, more importantly, no ensemble members stray much above the -10oC line once the change has occurred. Obviously this in the longer term, but the Upper Midwest is slightly easier to forecast than the UK!
The cold air travels South East to Chicago where again we see little in the way of any movement North of -10 after January 16th:
Finally, New York. The colder air takes longer to arrive as you'd expect, and the temperatures are generally higher, but most members stay below -5oC after the 16th January. There is also a hint of the first snowstorm around the 22nd January, but I'd be very surprised if this came anywhere near verifying at that range! The important thing is the trend. The fact that a snowstorm is hinted at for the 22nd suggests that some blocking may finally occur over Canada as Nor'Easters which usually cause such snowfall are generally the result of an Low travelling up the West Atlantic and bumping into a Canadian High.
Finally, just look at all that cold air flooding South East; a cold-lover's dream!
With such a pattern change occurring upstream, maybe there is a glimmer of light in the UK?
Addit: The corresponding 500hPa chart shows the polar vortex over Baffin Island...
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My thoughts exactly. May make them wake up to things.
I always find this attitude a bit naive (I'm also aware it's in the wrong place, so apologies). I know the media in Europe like to make out that all Americans don't give a damn about Global Warming either because they don't believe it or because of an insular attitude, but it's not necessarily the case. It's all very well for Europeans to sit smugly saying that they care, but what exactly are they doing about it? Last I checked, emissions of greenhouse gasses continued to rise despite the hot air being emitted by the politicians.
In fact, most environmental legislation in the US is enacted at the State rather than Federal level. As a result, what Bush says is largely rhetoric which doesn't mean an awful lot. California has some of the strictest emission standards for cars of anywhere in the world. Most other states have enacted ordinances which have targeted high polluting industries. Don't just listen to Bush and his cronies: he no more represents all Americans than Blair does all British people.
As for heat, the weekend was beautiful. 72oF in the city, and I was able to stroll around Central Park in short sleeves. People were eating outside pavement cafes. Unbelievable for early January. A bit of a shame to have such a nice day though; it will probably be some time before we have another such beatiful day.
A short cold snap coming this week, followed by more mildness. A pattern change may finally be afoot upstream however; Arctic air finally spreads into the High Plains later this week and should eventually spread East. What we really need is a shift in the NAO; sound familiar?
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It's very mild, but not unusually so.
Temperatures in the high teens even low twenties do happen in winter around the Eastern seaboard. They are ususally short warm bursts and you can find the temperature can drop to minus figures suddenly in a week!
You are correct, but what is unusual is the absence of the normal cold shots. I can only recall one really cold day so far this winter, and that was at the start of December. One ice day by this stage of January is very unusual. The total lack of snow is also about to become a new record, so it is unusually mild so far this winter.
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Here in the East, the unbelievable mildness continues. Temperature in New York today was about 63oF (17oC) with tomorrow forecast to touch 70oF (21oC). These are both daily high temperatures, with the highest ever for a January day being 72oF (22oC). Another record which will be broken is the date for the latest snowfall. The current record is January 6th 1892; that is, the latest date for recorded snow in the winter season. Given the temperatures tomorrow (6th) I think this will be comfortably broken! A slight cooldown is forecast for midweek with temperatures maxing at about 37oF (3oC) on Wednesday, but I'd be surprised if we saw any snow. Looking further ahead, there is a hint of some cooler temperatures moving into the Montana and North Dakota regions next week, but there is wide scatter in the ensembles. So far, this has been a blowtorch winter for the East coast.
As for the midwest, current temperatures have also been above average. Snow has fallen in parts of the Midwest from the storm moving in from the Rockies, but temperatures have still been above average. I'm really hoping for a pattern change, but at the moment January is looking like a write-off for the same reasons as in the UK: a flat jetstream...
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Still a fairly bleak picture for winter across the US. The odds of a white Christmas in places like Minneapolis, Wisconsin and Michigan are fairly high. This year however, it's simply too warm.
Starting in Minneapolis; in winter, most precipitation is of snow. For this reason they have 'skywalks' so that you don't freeze your butt off walking around! Looking at the current temps, I see it is about 2oC with the chance of a rain/snow mix. Looking forward, the next potential ice-day is not until the 29th. The average maximum for this time of year? -3oC. The ensembles are showing a cooldown, but -10 air at this time of year is nothing!
New York looks even more bleak. Some very mild air pushing through being drawn up from the south. So far the jet has killed winter for the North East!
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The Western Sierra Nevada Mountain slopes - which the Santa Ana downslope wind MUST descend are very high and steep. This means that the adiabatic heating effect usually warms the Santa Ana's maximum air temperature from a max of about -5c on the High Sierra Nevada Mountain slopes to a max of at least +30c in all seasons by the time the Santa Ana wind reaches Los Angeles, California.
In fact, LA recorded temperatures in the 90s Fahrenheit in early November with quite strong Santa Ana winds. I do recall hearing of coolish Santa Ana winds later in November, but I think this was a relative term and was around the same time that Seattle was experiencing a very cold blast so I guess there was some cold air higher up.
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I can't add attachments in Opera browser since the forum upgrade - the 'Choose' button does nothing at all. Some sort of compatibility issue?
Definitely an issue in FireFox. I don't see the option to add an attachment at all. Also, the boxes next to Insert Special Item are completely blank.
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I hope so
All farily quiet for the moment, after record snowfalls in London...Ontario, of almost a metre of snow, the great lakes region is going to be quiet, as is the praires. No real cold around for the next few days.
Watch for quite a potent storm to hit the BC coast by the start of the week, lots of rain for the coast and snow for the mountain passes, snow levels dropping to about 1500 metres
The Weather Channel described this week's weather as 'zonal'. Shows up pretty well on the temperature charts: clear straight lines running West to East going from warmer in the South to Colder to the North. Nothing particularly cold in the US this week other than snow in the mountains and snow in the UP of Michigan/Northern Minnesota which is about as unusual as a non-white Christmas in Britain!
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Thanks for the update wf.
Looks like snow is also at a premium stateside sofar this Winter.
My relatives are hoping to see some snow in ny soon
Nothing on the horizon for a while! The trend seems to be for quite active and relatively mild weather for the forseeable future. The North East has been particulalry bereft of snow so far this autumn/early winter. Having said that, New York City tends to see snow a little later than they do upstate anyway. The main snow season runs from January to March, much like the UK, albeit witha higher probability!
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Today is the first really cold day in New York. I've just been out for a walk, and the wind is howling!
Current conditions are 23oF (@-5oC) with a wind chill of 9oF (@-12oC). The wind is from the NW at 26mph, gusting up to 50mph. I can honestly say that it feels colder than it did in Chicago when the temperature was 13oF (@-10oC) under still skies.
Still, the temperature at 850hPA is currently about -18oC. This is forecast to move away quite quickly and we're back to the warmer conditions for a while. Temperatures are expected to recover to 6oC tomorrow and 11oC on Sunday, so a brief if sharp cold snap.
The picture is the same across the country. Chicago looks to have a week of above freezing temperatures, so when I travel there on Sunday I expect to see slushy snow. A maximum temperature of 9oC on Tuesday will probably feel balmy seeing as they have barely climbed above freezing for a week now!
...which is the point I'm trying to make!
North American Weather (U.S.A & Canada)
in Weather Around The World
Posted
Had a few hours to kill before my flight yesterday, so I took a drive down to the Mississippi. Was happy to see that it was starting to freeze at the edges. There's something enthralling about watching such a mighty river slowly freeze...