[Model Output Discussion - 30th November onwards]

gfs t144 0z

This mornings gfs

[Model Output Discussion 18th Nov.2013-12z onwards.]

Brian Gaze's comment this morning....

There look like 3 outcomes late next week. Cold spell, cold snap or it stays milder! The computer models are having difficulty pinning down the pattern which develops across the UK and Western Europe.

I’m still favouring a cold snap with the most wintry conditions in the north. A cold snap I’d define as lasting a few days.

Nonetheless, I’d say the chances of a cold spell have increased, as have the chances of it remaining milder, especially in the south.

So to conclude, it’s now looking like a 3 way race, with cold snap remaining the favourite.

[Model Output Discussion 18th Nov.2013-12z onwards.]

Day 3-5 met office update this morning mentions wintry showers up north

Monday, rather cloudy, some light showers, mainly in the northwest. Mostly light rain edging southeastwards through Tuesday and Wednesday. Showers following, perhaps wintry over high ground in the north.

Looking forward to a possible upgrade for day 6-15

[Model Output Discussion 18th Nov.2013-12z onwards.]

At t216 the south holding on to the cold uppers

[Model Output Discussion 18th Nov.2013-12z onwards.]

Crazy difference Mucka...Please God let the ECM be correct

V cold uppers down to Birmingham area at t168

<img src='http://images.meteociel.fr/im/4712/ECM0-168_qkg5.GIF' border=0>

[Model Output Discussion 18th Nov.2013-12z onwards.]

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/272/ECM0-144_zjy1.GIF

T144 850 temps Looking good

[Model Output Discussion 18th Nov.2013-12z onwards.]

come on guys, does no one ever learn??  we are talking about charts waaaay out in fi!  come the day, it will be a slack northerly with less cold uppers bringing snow to maybee scotland,, nothing unusual, thats IF we even get a northerly..

I don't think anyone is saying the northerly is nailed on, people are suggesting possibilities and using charts to back up their forecasts....better than just writing it off with no evidence just pessimism.

[Model Output Discussion 00z 19/07/13]

I know this is cheeky and that this forum isn't the place for it but...I'm getting married on Monday in Cardiff. What kind of weather can We expect? Would appreciate your expert opinions

[Wales Cymru Regional Discussion - January 15th 2013, 12z onwards]

Looks like that's your lot. So much for the 'stall'. Thankfully thaw should start now.

bah humbug