Derbyshire Snow
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Posts posted by Derbyshire Snow
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Interesting middle and end of model run. The system leaving US is causing some interesting developments, heights trying to form over Greenland but i think jet stream too strong. mor e interested in the heights behind the big US trough
Jet stream wins out as usual , but on this run alone much better signs of cold in to February, Massive amount of cold to the North, we just need to tap in to it. The trough plunging in to Europe would be a great move as well
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Hi all. This evenings model is once again showing the key drive being the strength of the jetstream and for many days yet it seems. There is a high probability of stormy winds throughout the UK at times next week. The strong polar vortex stretching down to mid latitudes unfortunately is in the wrong place. We need a SSW to split the PV or weaken it , but if that does not occur, then prolonged colder temperatures will be restricted to north east Europe. The polar vortex `should` traditionally weaken in Spring but we require something to happen now.
The Azores high linking to a Bartlett is not helping matters one bit
Theres just a chance that the huge trough giving bad conditions in the US may disrupt the jetstream and heights might develop in its wake as it moves out of US and in to the North Atlantic. Hopefully it might but i am not sure it will
Winter is far from done with yet and just maybe some surprises and the worst is still to come.
Latest image from my satellite system of The North Atlantic and the snowstorm in the US downloaded 10.15pm
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Satellite image of the expanding storm over US downloaded off my satellite dish at 6.15pm
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latest satellite view from my weather satellite system of the big snowstorm
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Evening all. Looking through todays output so far i can see no change from previous days runs as expected. Full on zonal. Two areas to overcome are the jet stream which is very strong and i have to now call it the Bartlett which is set in concrete now. Attached is the latest image of the snowstorm and North Atlantic downloaded at 4.45pm from my weather satellite system.
I will have a good look at models later with updated satellite view
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have a satellite system and i thought you all might want to see this image at 9.15am showing the snowstorm in the US plus showing how zonal our flow is now. Showing 2 developing depressions in the Atlantic heading our way of course:-(. I will add comments on the models in the evening
I will post a further image of this tonight as well
If you are a bit bored waiting for cold try downloading this avi, fascinating up to date view of North Artlantic and the big snowstorm
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4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:
You might be right ssib, but the models have been pretty consistent the past few days about the next week being predominantly Atlantic Zonal. I'm not seeing anything to suggest that will change *yet, before next weekend at least. Of course that could change, but I can only comment on current output. Peace!
Agreed, models here and in US show no indication of this jet stream weakening and the ever present slug is hard to move now it seems to be getting established . Thats what the current models show and predict, but after the weekend you never know. Interesting weather though, better than a meandering high stuck over the UK for weeks on end
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6 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:
To be honest your getting to sucked into the models.
We are not in "present zonal weather" we have had the first day where temps have got to 'normal' values . So any predicted zonal weather at present is just that , predicted . It hasn't actually happened .
I'm not sure how long we will be in this for . The models say 10 days or so , but I think maybe 7 days . I think another day or so and things will suddenly move forward , the last 2 days of the month to flip to Neg NAO/AO ?
This is the good thing about a model discussion forum, we all have our own opinions. We are in one of the most difficult areas of the world to forecast more than 10 days ahead. I could be proved wrong but to me we are now entering true winter zonal weather with a relentless throw of depressions across the Atlantic. Heights in poor position everywhere. I would love to be proved wrong and a big flip as you say to NEG NAO/AO and a SSW would be great.
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Conclusion tonight .I think to save this winter we really do need a SSW event to take place soon to dramatically alter the upcoming zonal weather. Things can change but the state of our area of the Northern Hemisphere is not desirable, but one SSW could change all that relatively quickly
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even towards the end of the run the jet stream is stronger than ever, only a temporary ridge and then more wet mild weather. If only a trough would head up west of Greenland we would be back in business, another trough leaving US (produced a lot of snow from it in US) heading our way.. I am a little interested to see if this trough veers north at the end of the run but i doubt it
Heights unfortunately where we dont want them in Bartlett terrtory
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Well , whats happened today. More of the same generally with glimmers of hope.
The main feature by far is the strength of the jet stream producing more and more intense depressions heading across the atlantic. I would expect some quite stormy weather particularly Northern Britain. Because of this there is very little chance of looking east for our next cold blast. We really have to look north and over Greenland to obtain increasing heights and push the PV further east. The present model run does not present opportunities to produce a strong ridge in the atlantic to halt this strong jet stream. If we can move the PV east ,our next blast of cold air i feel will have to arrive from the north west and if we can then get a depression from the PV to swing south in to Europe eventually north easterlies.
However the Azores high needs to weaken and pull back to allow a trough to plunge in to Europe
We need a SSW soon and i cannot see anything to show yet that the models expect one to interact with our weather at this time.
The jet stream looks unstoppable for now
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13 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:
This caught my eye...no support but nice all the same.
Thats a great chart to go to sleep on. SSW definitely taking a hand in that one
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These high pressure areas coming out of US i presume the models reacting to the odd prediction of NAO forecasts being right.
See what tomorrow brings, i think surprises will appear more regular in the models over the next few days
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4 minutes ago, TEITS said:
I beg to differ.
The models have been consistent with a positive NAO i.e low heights to our NW with high pressure to our S for many days now. The models have also been consistent with high pressure to our NE. The problem is even if we do see low pressure going underneath the high to our NE, the low heights towards Greenland are likely to prevent the block to our NE to extend W.
I seem to recall some forecasts based on teleconnections saying the end of Jan/early Feb is when winter will bite. Well at the moment I see no evidence of this in the output. Infact the current output is like something from a horror film. Maybe the forecasted cold spell will be put back to mid Feb.
I think there is some promise towards the end of this run. I know its FI . Because of the heights in North Atlantic and Greenland, not mega but enough to push the PV east and we then begin to receive a cold north westerly flow. Snow at time for many parts of the north particular on hills
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6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:
This is how the METO see it getting colder I think, not from an Easterly. I wonder how their meeting today went ref Febs weather...Hopefully still looking progressively colder, sooner rather than later before the Sun start strengthening and days lengthen !!
Hi Ali,
Exactly. I think the change in our weather has to come from the west to begin with. We need a cut off of this jet stream either with heights to the west or north Atlantic, and then we can take it from there. The jet stream has to buckle. Thats a big Azores high though, that needs to weaken as well.I do like the latter part of the run better, lots more promise for the future. Greenland high trying to build, PV on the move ,not sure if it will make it on this run
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later in this run there are some heights leaving Unites States which is visible on this map, ridge pushing north. It may buckle the jet stream, may pruduce a more north westerly flow and allow some interesting weather to develop over here
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My evening update of GFS run. Very similar to previous op runs so far. No chance of heights developing again over Greenland and to the north, increasingly strong flow of depressions steaming in from the atlantic bringing severe gales, mild temperatures and some heavy rain at times. Areas to watch are for the previously flooded areas again.
Jet stream out of US even stronger than last night which does not augur well for any strengthening of a Scandi, Siberian High pushing towards UK.
I can see no light unfortunately for cold weather on this model run as at t183. Hopefully ensembles are better but i doubt it. Unfortunately ECM are agreeing with this as well
A long road back as the Azores high looks strong. Very hard to get optimistic for cold, but stormy weather may prove interesting.. a recipe for rapid cyclogenesis
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quick look at this run... No height rises over Greenland at any stage.... jet stream pouring energy out of US....no real chance of any Scandinavian high or Siberian High pushing towards us- too much energy pushing our from Atlantic... high pressure generally over Azores, Southern Europe. If this run verifies only 70% its bad news until mid February i expect.
One week is however a long time to obtain accurate forecasts in our part of the world... but to be honest I cannot see where any cold will appear from for the forseeable future. It is however only one model run but its looking a bit like December all over again however the worst of precipitation seems to be generally for Northern Britain again
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building blocks on this run for something special.. although once again heights dissipate over Greenland under the attack of the jet stream. Net result. Scandinavian high on retreat... and a bartlett developing
Its a good job its FI and only one run because the last charts are about as bad as you can get for early February... lok at the jet stream firing up
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Well... better heights over Greenland mid term for awhile pushing the huge depression more southerly and weakening as well, The Scandinavian high needs help to encourage it to link to the Greenland high.
If we can get the heights to develop more over Green land and lower over Southern Europe, we might be in business. That isnt an arctic high appearing later in the run, or is it
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i personally prefer the gfs over the ecm. The only problem i have, it often seems in FI to want to try to strengthen energy in the atlantic, usually more than other models. FI is however never to be trusted anyway.
Its natural that a lot of cold lovers prefer the model that gives the most wanted synoptics at the time.
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4 minutes ago, Jason M said:
A few properly cold GEFS tonight. Interestingly they are probably the first genuinely deep cold charts I've seen for days.
Doesnt prove much of itself, maybe gives a little hope though. The key is whether we can shift the heights over Iberia. Shift that anomaly and we might be in business. Trouble is, it's always been a tough pattern to shift once in place.
totally agree. these heights to our south and south east are a nuisance
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5 minutes ago, tight isobar said:
^^ not sure about tonight's given both variations and slow progression of change ie Atlantic inroads. .
More to be eyeballing cross suites over the next few days for hopefully more' decisive possible agree, on forming blocks...be it northeast/northwest. .....
i mentioned tonights output might be interesting because last nights run was tantalisingly close to being really good. Just interested to see if this evenings runs continue with this afternoons output or show some of the developments that were being produced last night.
We will see. 10 days at least though i think before we see changes to much colder weather in UK. but hopeful and certainly not pessimistic
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Looking at the models today, still no change generally. Jet stream still strong sending lows to the north towards the north of Scandinavia. This high pressure over Europe is doing a great job of deflecting them northwards... we must get this meandering high to slip away south east , that one has done its job. Heights midterm are not developing again strong enough over Greenland , still too much energy leaving the US. Heights on last nights GFS were much better in that region and even showed energy trying to push west of Greenland. However the models have ditched that idea temporarily
Looking forward to tonights output though. There are signs we could get something good
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Model output discussion - 21st Jan Onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Hi,
Just a quick look at the models, will have an in depth look later this evening.
No change as expected yet, Strong jet, large bartlett high , no heights to the north. Not good. I think we were very lucky to get that cold spell we had this year in an El Nino winter. I think we are going to have our patience tested
If anyone interested this is the 5.15pm image downloaded off my dish of the big snowstorm, cold front clearly shown.