StretfordEnd1996

I don't ever manage to recall previous Autumn's all that well if I am being honest; largely because a vast majority are just mild and wet with rain and gales so all previous Autumn's just seem to merge into one! Some that stand out I think are 2009 (the reason being it was a particularly wet Autumn especially October and November which saw severe flooding in my local area) 2010 - A cool and sometimes coldish October and a very cold (towards the end) November which is a rather unusual pattern for Autumn 2011 - A very mild (almost hot at times) October I seem to recall? Made it stand out a bit 2000 - Obviously this one was particularly remembered for being extremely wet All the other years I just can't recall them that well at all really.

By the looks of things it is failing to pick up a decent signal for temperature and precipitation. But those pressure anomalies if anything suggest a westerly based scenario I suppose with ridging based to the South of the country, the jet stream would probably be running through the country. This would indicate an unsettled scenario, which of course is the average for Autumn anyway. That's one thing to remember; 'average' in Autumn may commonly mean 'wet and mild'.

The chill in the air that you are feeling isn't happening because we are getting closer to Autumn, it's just because the Summer weather is absolutely awful. We aren't half way through Summer yet.

We all know that the weather has many regional variations wherever you go in the UK, but I too will admit that this Summer so far, (particularly the last 2-3 weeks or so), has been nothing short of poor. Whilst it hasn't offered the complete washout scenario that we saw in examples such as 2012 and 2007, it's been painfully dull, boring and just a damp sodden cloud and rainfest that has seen little in the way of hot sunshine lasting anything more than a day or two. I think if you asked any old folk in the UK who isn't even interested in the weather like we are if they have enjoyed the Summer weather so far, a common answer would certainly be 'no'!! I'm happy for you that in your location things haven't been so bad; but many many people are suffering here.

Can anyone tell me a few years where they have seen a cold snap this early before? I have had a little bit of a think but I cannot remember many years really. 2008 of course had something in October; 2005; the cold snap arrived a little later around 25th/26th ... as it did in 2010. I seem to recall recording a very early cold snap in November 2001, cannot remember any details though at all really, except it did happen very early on? To be fair, the northerly snap we have just experienced really did take me by complete surprise.

The initial band of rain has left us, but for whatever reason, typically for the NW of England, some light rain and drizzle has decided to mingle around for a laugh, particularly towards the East of the region. Looking forward to some rather settled weather towards mid week, but still remaining rather chilly, certainly feeling like it anyway.

Staying on topic with model output, it looks like there will be some rather mild temperatures overnight on Thursday going into Friday, with most places waking up to almost double figure temperatures; But 12 hours later we see some colder conditions moving in from the north west, meaning temperatures quickly slide to a much more seasonable feel This coupled with relatively unsettled conditions could lead to some precipitation turning wintry in the North on high ground. I think some people are being too downbeat and upset about the outlook at the moment. Yes, alright, there's a relatively mild and snow free couple of weeks coming up, and Atlantic based brief cold incursions like these are non eventful for some. But a lot of people are saying there is nothing exciting going on at the moment; for me, a fall of around 10'C to around freezing temperatures coupled with bands of rain, sleet and snow, even if only brief, and even if it's to be succeeded by a rapid increase again on Sunday is still enough to get me excited.

You mentioned in a previous post how frightening the difference can be in Winter when you head a little further East towards the Pennines. I wouldn't be surprised if my location recorded more total snow accumulation throughout the whole Winter of 2008-09 then 2009-10. 2008-09 contained 4 snow events that were virtually non existent away from the hills (e.g past Oldham), for us each of the 4 events delivered 5-10cm that lasted a good couple of days. I don't think it's really actually something to do with the snow falling because I think all locations may share similar amounts, it just seems to stick much more here and stay around for days even weeks longer.

Too young for that! I'm guessing the thing about cold Winter's is they produce for absolutely everyone most of the time. Everyone gets there fair share of snow and it's cold all around, but in average type Winter's there's so many large regional variations that perhaps do go un-noticed. 2008-2009 rings a bell in this respect, the Feb 2009 Easterly was just as cold and snowy as anything else I've seen with the 20cm or so lying around for 2 weeks (some did gradually thaw in the sun); then Jan 2009 I managed to experience three separate 3-4 day cold snaps that each produced 5-10cm of snow; Dec 08 also produced a small 3 day cold snap (11cm). 9 miles further afield in Manchester, it wasn't quite so that fun at all. One thing I've noticed about recent February's is that they are usually a 'month of two half's', there have been a few examples where the second half is milder than average and this effects the CET. But February is often associated with some of the more coldest temperatures of the Winter; that hasn't been the case at all for quite some time so it seems.

2000-2001, 2003-2004, 2004-2005, 2005-2006, 2007-2008** (**well March and April anyway) were all 'average-ish' type Winter's, but produced, what is in my opinion, some respectable, bog standard British cold snaps; in fact all the Winter's I've mentioned had snow events that gave us 5-10cm+. Baring in mind though we both live in a fairly snow prone location and I guess Winters like the ones I've mentioned (i.e bog standard) just simply don't produce as much at low lying locations or indeed less snow prone locations. I personally thought the winter's I have mentioned were fairly good for snow.

I really enjoy Simon Keeling's video's and work, although there was one thing that confused me about his original Winter thoughts. He frequently mentioned that whilst he believed a milder than average Winter was coming, he was adamant that most places including the South would see more snow totals and more days of snow falling than last Winter; which really did confuse me because last Winter's temperature CET was between -0.5 and +0.5'C (can't remember what exactly) and of course this means it was pretty much average? In other words I'm not sure why a milder Winter this year would lead to more snow totals than the average Winter of last year.

My location has just caught some shower's right now. It appears to be rather very mild though; 15'C perhaps?

In terms of last year's affair, I personally think it was perhaps a little underrated really although the way it panned out, it was a typical average Winter with some big regional variations. Interestingly, I think most people would regard the last 9 Winter's (before 14/15) as being either above (06/07, 07/08, 11/12, 13/14) or below average; last year's Winter I think was much more of an average set up with bits and pieces here and there, nothing too magnificently exciting and nothing too horribly dull. In terms of timings; I don't particularly have a huge preference. I didn't like 2010-11 in the sense it finished after 4 weeks so the remaining 9-10 weeks or so we're disappointing. But if I think of other recent Winter's, 2008-09 saw an absolute worldy of a cold spell (well in my location anyway) in the February with 20cm+ for well over a week; 2009-10 saw snow at a very different time but was equally as exciting.

It's probably more of a mutual belief and hope rather than a confirmed factor. The thing is, this time of year in terms of weather forecasting is so much more popular than any other time, and it only takes one person to come up with a possible factor and it spreads through word of mouth before eventually becoming seemingly factual. Some people even like to single out a particular month in Autumn; September is a popular one in terms of it's own outcome influencing the following Winter. How does September matter, but October and November not matter? Same applies for the opposite end of the year, does Spring and particularly March have a big influence on Summer? Everyone knows it doesn't, it's just that most people at this time of year believe anything with a pinch of salt and clutch onto those straws as we do every year.

The one you posted yesterday was indeed yesterday's chart, and the one you posted today was also yesterday's chart, I think they update it later on today or something

That's because it's the same one that you posted yesterday

Virtually completely dark here at 21:30hrs, not too sure when it actually started fading, maybe 20:45? The thing I don't like about August September time of year is that the length of the daylight in the day shortens so quickly compared to any other time of the year

Haha, an expected chart and as you said, movement isn't expected It's lovely to see this thread up and running already and everyone loves a bit of pre-discussion, and what's more, it's only around 3-7 weeks when we do see movement so not long to go.

This does happen occasionally though in August, since don't forget the average night time min in August for England (1981-2010 averages) is 11.5, so a single figure low is very acceptable although it depends how low it really would be.

I can report that it is overcast. And dull. And wet. And Rainy. And horrid. But nothing else. Yet.

Speaking in a non-meteorological perspective, I think it's understandable that a lot of people are beginning to feel, or already have begun to feel, rather unsure about the upcoming predicted Nino, purely because of the slow, sluggish and unpredictable last few months we have had in terms of the subject, but I don't think this plays any part into whether we are going to have one or not, as all the evidence points to one developing soon

Clouds struggling to break up and in fact they are getting even more grey in colour, no rain, but not seen one bit of the sun so far today

I think this last week really has been truly awful in my honest opinion, it's been horribly uneventful. But I'm hoping the weather will really improve for the weekend.

I always found this time of year (the month preceding 21st June) rather depressing as it barely feels we have got through Winter/Spring but we're already saying 'already just under 4 weeks until the nights draw in again'. Thankfully of course, there are still some pleasant sunset times even in September but the end word is, if you have very late sunset times in an unsettled Summer, was their even any point in them at all?!

14.9 - marginally above average though hard to tell