Paul

If you're looking for a realistic answer, the only one as far as I'm concerned is that a gfs chart at 384 hours isn't a useful guide for that time . So, therefore attempting to extrapolate that to make a forecast for another month is impossible/pointless.

And so it begins.... High ground for now.

UKV not thinking that snow will be limited to just Scotland. Don't get me wrong, it's going to snow quite a lot in Scotland, but there's interest elsewhere all the same. And to be fair as well, the UKV has, in my view, tended to underdo convective precip of late.

That whole system is being removed from the software this year, so there's very little mileage in bringing them back I'm afraid.

Not to say it can't be discussed in here, as it's relevant to the models etc. But, for those with an extra interest the strat, SSW's etc, there is a dedicated more in depth thread here:

Please use the moans thread for non-model related pure moans etc. Let's try to keep this thread as model related as possible.. https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99729-moans-and-ramps/?do=getNewComment

It shows unsettled, mild weather. But it is also the gfs @ 12 days away, so not necessarily anything to hang your hat on!

This is genuinely one of the more bizarre evenings I can remember in here. You have the models showing things like this: And it's not good enough? I mean seriously! I get that there's not too much in the way of widespread snow shown at the moment, but a lot of the details aren't even close to being sorted out for next week yet. Yes, there's some discrepancy between runs and the ecm has gone a bit milder for a while tonight, but again that should highlight the difficulty of nailing down what's happening, rather than being seen as a definitive outcome. Perspective needed.

Once again, if you just want to moan, please head to the moans thread: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99729-moans-and-ramps/?do=getNewComment Most will probably have noticed the big green bar in the editor, just acting as a reminder to keep the models in here. Fortunately, the majority in stick to that (thank you!), but for those who continue to post frequent very off topic and disruptive stuff, please understand you do face being blocked from posting in here. Many other threads are available, so please use them when you don't want to discuss the model output. Finally, if you do see obviously very off topic posts, moans and the like, even if it's very tempting to reply, please don't. Please just hit the report button!

*Whispers quietly* The cold weather hasn't even arrived yet.

For those who simply want a moan at a potential lack of snow or whatever else, please don't use this thread. Use this:

I've responded to your points in here, so clearly you're 'allowed'. But the point still stands that this thread isn't designed for this subject, it's for weather related moans and ramps etc, and we have a feedback forum along with a team contact forum both of which are designed for this sort of thing.

We do try to move ott ramps into this very thread. But equally, what you're describing in many cases is weather enthusiasts getting a bit over enthusiastic for a weather type they love. What would you have us do, remove all the emotion, moderate every instance of someone getting somewhat excited? Where would we draw the line, how would we draw the line? I can't say I've seen much of that sort of thing happening on here in 20 years. The reason for that is that most people know and accept that the models chop and change, and if dates x days ahead are talked about, it's on the basis of what the models are showing at the time. If you've misunderstood that and taken it to mean a guarantee of some sort of weather type on a particular date, then it's unfortunate and I can understand the disappointment, but hopefully next time you'll have a better understanding of the dynamic nature of weather forecasting and the models. But once again, you're welcome to read what you like and draw the conclusions you wish to from those posts. All you're reading is thoughts on an open discussion about the model output from weather enthusiasts. Some have more knowledge than others, some get overly excited at the prospect of snow and cold, some may even post things which aren't an accurate representation of what the models they're describing are actually showing. But that's the nature of the beast, it's a discussion forum. Indeed, but as I mentioned above, everyone's posts need to be on topic and within the guidelines. Even these posts are outside of those, as this thread isn't for moaning about other members. You're of course welcome to post your feedback and any specific thoughts about the moderation of the model thread in the team contact forum, it's what it's there for.

You're obviously very determined to make your point, so I guess I'll bite. Have a read back of what you're saying here. Basically, what you're moaning about is that some weather enthusiasts in a discussion forum, posting about the models, which chop and change daily, didn't provide you with a guarantee that what they were interested in/enthusiastic about/discussing 10 days ago would definitely happen on the day they said it may. I'm sorry you've not seen snow, but seriously it's not the fault of the people in the model thread, or of the models, it's called the weather. It changes, and it's hard to forecast. If it wasn't, then there'd be no point discussing it. Oh, and yes, of course people are posting for the sake of it - they enjoy discussing the models, and some even get a bit carried away with it! But they're not offering a service, asking for payment for their posts, and they're not forcing anyone to read them. If you don't like all or some of the posts being made, you're welcome not to read them. There are ways to block posters, ignore threads, and curate your own list of members and topics you want to follow if you like. You're also free to view the models and post your thoughts on them as well. It's an open forum. All we ask is that people stay on topic and follow the community guidelines and as a moderation team we try to keep things flowing as smoothly as we can. It's not perfect, but none of us are, and therefore, the sum of our parts here probably shouldn't be expected to be either. Useful links: Following members and viewing their content Ignoring members

Just moved a few posts over to the moans, ramps and banter thread, just to tidy up a bit, as the chat was outweighing the model discussion for a bit there. We're obviously trying to let the conversation flow, but the main thrust has to be the models or it stops being the model thread and we get loads of complaints. Incidentally, if you do want to complain or have feedback about the model thread, please use the team contact forum. And bear in mind that the team is working very hard to keep things running smoothly, but we're all human and may get things wrong, or do something you don't agree with. We really are reliant on reports of off topic/iffy posts as well - this thread alone is at 1000+ posts per day right now, so there's not a chance of us reading everything everywhere. Thanks, and happy model watching - it's been a while since we've seen charts like we have been off late, so lets enjoy the ride!

Can I point anyone interested to this post: The point of removing the post(s) earlier from the model thread were to a. stop it going miles off topic, and b. stop the ongoing, north vs south, local vs national debate, as it's unhelpful to those wanting to discuss and read about the models. In much the same way, people come in this part of the forum to read about local weather, people's daily lives etc, not to just rehash arguments which were removed from another part of the community for being off topic and disruptive. So, as per the request in that thread - please use the team contact forum if you'd like to discuss the model thread, moderation etc and leave this thread to what it was designed for. Thanks.

The imbyism moans and arguments really need to stop in this thread. The truth is that in terms of the topic of this thread a post about the models which relates to one tiny part of the country is more on topic than a moan about what someone else is posting about the models. I posted this a few years back, and it's still relevant: The TL;DR summary being: There will naturally be bias in people's posts towards where they live. Some will show that more than others, some may even go out of their way to provide balance and regional info, which is great. But, ultimately, unless posts are off topic, not about the models or breaking the forum guidelines in other ways, it's not a moderation issue. That's not to say non-model discussion ramps, moans and will it snow type stuff based on local factors are ok in here, they're not. They should be elsewhere, so please report them. There are literally 1000+ posts per day in this thread right now, so there's zero chance of the team being able to read them all - which is why reporting off topic/iffy posts (and not responding to them) is important. And finally - we encourage everyone to use the regional groups for a more local slant - in fact you're free to open regional model threads if you'd like to. If you'd like to discuss this further, please use the team contact area. Any further off topic posts, moans etc on this subject will be removed in here, as it's disruptive and ruins the discussion for those wanting to read about the model output. Thank you!

Just made this guide, as it may be useful for those who'd prefer to read a more curated version of the forums:

This may be a good option for those looking for a more curated version of the community:

If you'd like to curate the content you see on the community, one really good way to do it is to follow other members. This allows you to be notified (if you'd like) when they make a new post, but it also allows you to have a curated feed of just the members you follow within the activity stream. Many of you are probably asking what on earth an activity stream is right now, because it's not especially widely used - please keep reading to find out more.. Firstly, how to follow members. It's a pretty simple task - just go onto the profile of the member you'd like to follow and click the follow button: Once you have a few members you're following, you can view all of their recent posts from one place on the activity stream. One of the custom options available on there is 'members I follow' Once there, you'll see a screen like this (desktop and mobile views shown): It's customisable with the filters at the top, so you can limit the time span, only show content you haven't read, and so on - you can then save those options as a custom stream to use whenever you like. There are numerous other pre-built activity streams for you to try and edit as well - it can be a great way of discovering and following the content that interests you. Hopefully this is useful, please feel free to ask any questions you have below.

Ok, locking this one now - fresh thread here:

Not wanting to pee on anyone's parade here, but proper analysis would surely be far more nuanced than that, especially going beyond the weekend in terms of specifics of the cold's longevity, how far south it reaches/stays & any snow risk around that. All the data points don't point in one direction. Many point in a similar direction, but there are operational runs (namely the GFS today) and plenty of ensemble members from various models which show differing solutions. Yes, the colder outlooks in the shorter to medium term do look more likely right now and I'd certainly take the UKMO and ECM above the GFS 9 times out of 10, but that's not the same as the colder/coldest options being the only possibility on the table. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99706-model-output-discussion-into-2024/?do=findComment&comment=5004114

Not wanting to pee on anyone's parade here, but proper analysis would surely be far more nuanced than that, especially going beyond the weekend in terms of specifics of the cold's longevity, how far south it reaches/stays & any snow risk around that. All the data points don't point in one direction. Many point in a similar direction, but there are operational runs (namely the GFS today) and plenty of ensemble members from various models which show differing solutions. Yes, the colder outlooks in the shorter to medium term do look more likely right now and I'd certainly take the UKMO and ECM above the GFS 9 times out of 10, but that's not the same as the colder/coldest options being the only possibility on the table.

I understand the sport, but I definitely think that waiting for the model time slot to come out rather than guessing what it may show would make life much simpler!

There seems to be a 5pm thing every night at the moment, sorts itself out pretty quickly though - seems fine now?