Blessed Weather

Please folks. This is the Summer 2023 chat thread and not the place to discuss other subjects. So could we please get the discussions back on topic or I'm afraid they will start disappearing. Thank you.

At my daughters and an interesting sky here in Rochester this afternoon as the weather fronts approached, although forecast rainfall accumulation right up to midnight Saturday not much at all for the far SE corner.

It will seem very noteworthy for our part of the UK at this time of the year. Arpege model suggesting gusty winds building during Saturday afternoon and peaking at up to 85 kmh (52 mph) during Saturday evening, so some disruption possible from fallen branches and speed restrictions on bridges, etc.. For members with Netweather Extra radar you'll be able to turn on the Current Weather/Gusts overlay to check wind speeds from official weather stations during the day. Our SE Regional thread is as good a place as any to discuss these events. The Storms and Convective Discussions thread is normally thunderstorms. If the Met Office name the storm then we usually start a specific thread in the Storms and Severe Weather area, but I don't believe this system has been named, just warnings issued. Arpege wind gusts Sat evening:

June 2023 Once the nagging cold wind off the North Sea finally eased off in the second week, not a bad month overall with well above average temps thanks to a warm second half more than making up for the cool start, below average rainfall and plenty of sunshine. Stats for East Anglia courtesy of Dan Holley, Weatherquest: 2nd warmest June on record (behind 1976) Notably dry (driest since 2018) Sunniest June since 1976 The cool and cloudy start to the month with persistent NE'ly winds until ~9th effectively eradicated by anomalous warmth in the following two weeks Source: Dan Holley, Weatherquest. Twitter @danholley_

The warning was correct for here on the Norfolk Coast. An horrendous night with very heavy rain and strong winds that resulted in the electric going off for several hours. It'll be interesting to check the overnight rainfall amounts when they're published tomorrow. Back home in Hadleigh folk are posting on faecesbook that a tree came down and narrowly missed a house.

A weather warning in place for the eastern counties of East Anglia tonight. Certainly raining steadily now on the Norfolk Coast. At the moment the radar suggests the SE corner of Kent catching the worst, but as the low pressure spins out into the North Sea, taking its time to clear, it's the coastal counties that could indeed justify the warning.

Back on the Norfolk coast with the caravan again this week and enjoyed a short but fairly potent storm moving through at around 17.30 today. Several lightning strikes and 10 mins of torrential rain. Couldn't hear yourself think with the noise in the van.

Good morning All. Please don't respond to a clearly off topic post. Use the report button and let the team look at it, rather than responding and causing further off topic posts. Model Output Discussion in here. Many thanks.

As promised, here's the hi res radar calculations of yesterday's rainfall totals for comparison with some of the hi res model forecasts from the 0z runs. First a reminder of the Arome, NMM and Arpege forecasts: Compared with the radar calculated totals: So nothing scientific, but once again (with my adhoc comparisons) the Arome model produces the most accurate short range rainfall forecast. Sources: Radar totals - Netweather Extra; models - Meteociel.

Fairly patchy rain on the two cold fronts moving through this morning, although the radar is suggesting the second front is pepping up a little and has recently produced some lightning (circled). (Source: Netweather Extra). Here's this morning's forecasts of rainfall accumulation to midnight tonight from Arome, NMM and Arpege. (Source: meteociel.com). I'll take a look at the results tomorrow morning and we'll see which model did best.

Rather a dull day here, especially this afternoon with a leaden grey sky. Felt comfortable outdoors though with a max of 22C at 3 pm. Spent a fascinating 5 mins watching this stag beetle marching around the garden before it disappeared into the undergrowth. A good 2 inches in size and sporting a very nice hand stitched leather jacket. I wouldn't want to argue with it.

14.35 and developments now starting to take place on the wind convergence line discussed earlier. The next couple of hours could have some interest.

Here's the NOAA web page with verification stats for the 4 operational runs 0z, 6z,12z and 18z. Without digging deeper into the figures, visually there doesn't appear to be a standout 'best' run out of the 4, with each sometimes performing best, sometimes worst out of the cycle? Link: https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/global/gfs/ops/grid2grid_gfs_4cycles/acc/

Arpege chart for 14.00 shows the wind convergence line running down the middle of East Anglia and into London.

Here's the Netweather Extra hi-res radar calculations for yesterday's (Sunday's) rainfall and it confirms that many in the Region, including most of East Anglia, received very little rainfall from yesterday's 'no-show' rain event. And this morning's GFS rainfall forecasts suggesting the eastern counties of the Region stay dry for the next week:

Dear oh dear. Once again what looked like a promising area of rain just fizzled out as it moved north, giving barely enough to dampen the ground here. And it looks like the remaining area of heavier rain will scoot up the coast. Two of my three 50 gallon water butts now empty. 17.05 18.50

Where did that band of rain come from? I can't recall seeing a single forecast suggesting an organised band of showers passing through our Region today. Thankfully it cleared in time to allow the Hadleigh v Woolpit cricket match to take place today. And the caption for the photo? "Probably the best way to enjoy a Saturday afternoon in the World."

Lol. Could be a good call slater. GFS 06z showing no rain on Sunday for parts of Norfolk and Suffolk. Cumulative rainfall to 23.00 Sunday:

After days of clear blue sky some high cloud moving in this evening here in Suffolk. Looking at the GFS hi-res cloud forecast animation for the next 24 hours, tomorrow appears to be a day with little in the way of clear blue sky. Lots of high level cloud about ahead of the front moving in overnight Saturday into Sunday, bringing some showers, potentially thundery, for later Sunday. Cloud incoming from west Saturday 19.45 GFS 24 hour animation to 20.00 Sunday

That's a good question Lauren and it would be good if someone on here could point us to a source of official station stats (as opposed to amateur readings). The Met Office Historic Station Data only provides monthly stats per station. My old source of such data was a site called Ogimet which provided excellent daily stats for 145 UK stations, but that site doesn't seem to have been updated for a while. So I have fallen back on using the Netweather Extra Hi-Res Rain Total map to 'see' where rain has fallen. This can be analysed by day, week and month. This shows for Kent that you have to go back to the 15th May to see the last time some patchy rainfall fell for parts of the county. After that dry with the exception of some light showers on the 12th June mainly impacting the Medway Estuary area. Some charts: 15th May Week 15 - 21 May (the rain shown fell on the 15th) Week 29 May - 04 Jun Jun to date (the rain shown fell on the 12th) So using my rather broad brush methodology it would suggest that most parts of Kent have now gone around 30 days since rain last fell.

May 2023 Whilst the overall stats would suggest a fairly average month overall for the Region, the SE corner - particularly Essex and Kent - recorded well below average rainfall. This analysis for East Anglia from Dan Holley, Weatherquest, Twitter @danholley_ Mean temperature around average (±0.0°C) (T Max below average, T Min above average) Near-average rainfall - Wet first half of the month, very dry since mid-month (Wettest spring since 2012) Near-average sunshine Possibly the big story of the month (which ran into June) was the seemingly relentless number of days with cool winds blowing in from a NE'ly quadrant, bringing low cloud in off the North Sea that was very slow to clear by day and holding back temperatures. The following images from the Sat24 satellite for the 14th May nicely illustrating the frustratingly slow progress of daily clearance (note: some days not clearing at all for eastern counties): 08.50 11.25 14.05 This analysis from Dan Holley putting the 2023 run of NE'ly wind's into perspective: "Monks Wood has now recorded 20 consec days with daily modal winds from a NE'ly quadrant. Most other sites are on 14 days, during which Weybourne has only received ~25% of its pot max sun hrs. Lamb Wx Type suggests this is the most persistent anticyclonic spell since 1982." But not as bad as some years:

Yes, looking good. Look at these temperature forecasts from Arpege model for your first 3 days. You might be grateful for a cooling sea breeze! By the way, if you do visit some of the Broads, one of my favourites is Horning Staithe which has a pub beer garden overlooking the water and a variety of cafes, restaurants and gift shops. It even has a 'Mississippi style' paddle boat sailing from alongside the Swan Inn, with 1 and 1/2 hour trips for £10 (discount for kids). Sat Sun Mon Source: https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege.php?ech=1&mode=41&map=330

Looking at prospects out to Thurs 15th using the GFS model and it's not looking bad for your week. Plenty of sunshine to enjoy with no recurrence of the daily North Sea clag we've had to endure and no measurable rainfall. The slight fly in the ointment is the winds look to be mainly from an easterly direction, so that will hold temperatures back somewhat if you're on the beach. But go slightly inland - say onto the Broads - and the temps should be very nice indeed. All in all if I was heading off for the Norfolk Coast this weekend I'd be quite pleased. I hope you enjoy your break. Cloud cover (called nébulosité below as it's a French website) from Sunday morning through to Thursday. Black is clear, Red is thin high level stuff, White is low (base) level cloud. As you can see it's mainly black and red colours for the week. The rainfall accumulation for the 7 days to Thurs 15th shows negligible rainfall (just a small risk from a possible shower on your first Saturday). You can find a wide selection of GFS charts including the above at the link below. https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/precipitations/168h.htm

It's so disappointing to see 95% of the UK under clear skies whilst day after day here in East Anglia the clag off the North Sea refuses to melt away. (But great for the 95%. Enjoy!! ). The satellite image at 17.40 shows how close my back yard got to seeing some sunshine here in Suffolk. But now at 19.10 the low cloud is already creeping back inland and a grey evening here. My local Met Office weather station (Wattisham) reporting a very disappointing max of 14C today. 17.40 19.10 I'm looking forward to some warmth by the weekend. And maybe even a thundery shower. This evening's GFS showing some potential energy (instability) around by the evening of Saturday 10th. Much better than this boring North Sea rubbish imo!

Hi PIT. Take a look at these images. The write up by the Woodlands Trust (also see image) is worth reading. The link: https://www.woodlandtrust.org.uk/trees-woods-and-wildlife/british-trees/a-z-of-british-trees/white-willow/?gad=1&gclid=Cj0KCQjw4NujBhC5ARIsAF4Iv6c-Ir0-80yy-mZm7oLOW6zKWw7vWpa5MT7YKcikqXtsLgr-dgJVCQ0aAvXlEALw_wcB Hope you get to the bottom of it. Let us know.