Blessed Weather

Lovely sunset with a great display of cirrus here in Sea Palling this evening. Edit: and still improving!

In the caravan on the Norfolk Coast this week. Enjoyed a couple of hours on a paddle steamer touring around the Broads yesterday and saw a Marsh Harrier and Crested Grebe. Today visited Horsey Gap beach to see the seals and this evening enjoyed a visit from an amazing Black Arches moth that landed on the awning window. Great to see nature still doing well in this lovely county.

This request has been posted in the Heat Haters and Poor Summer Haters clubs as well as the Summer Chat thread. Sadly there are too many posts being made that are intolerant of the views and preferences of others about the type of weather they enjoy/don't enjoy. Whether you are in the heat haters or heat lovers camp, there really isn't any need to be making critical, goading or belittling posts towards the other camp. And in case some didn't appreciate, there can be genuine medical/health reasons why some people cannot tolerate heat. You can find more info on that on the UK Health Agency website. A final point, Netweather is not a social media platform where anything goes. We are a private weather forum and we have guidelines that members must follow if they wish to continue on here, in particular 'be kind' and 'be tolerant'. You can find the guidelines here so if you are not familiar with them please pop over and have a read. So let's make the forum an enjoyable place for everyone, whatever their weather preference. Many thanks.

This request has been posted in the Heat Haters and Poor Summer Haters clubs as well as the Summer Chat thread. Sadly there are too many posts being made that are intolerant of the views and preferences of others about the type of weather they enjoy/don't enjoy. Whether you are in the heat haters or heat lovers camp, there really isn't any need to be making critical, goading or belittling posts towards the other camp. And in case some didn't appreciate, there can be genuine medical/health reasons why some people cannot tolerate heat. You can find more info on that on the UK Health Agency website. A final point, Netweather is not a social media platform where anything goes. We are a private weather forum and we have guidelines that members must follow if they wish to continue on here, in particular 'be kind' and 'be tolerant'. You can find the guidelines here so if you are not familiar with them please pop over and have a read. So let's make the forum an enjoyable place for everyone, whatever their weather preference. Many thanks.

This request has been posted in the Heat Haters and Poor Summer Haters clubs as well as the Summer Chat thread. Sadly there are too many posts being made that are intolerant of the views and preferences of others about the type of weather they enjoy/don't enjoy. Whether you are in the heat haters or heat lovers camp, there really isn't any need to be making critical, goading or belittling posts towards the other camp. And in case some didn't appreciate, there can be genuine medical/health reasons why some people cannot tolerate heat. You can find more info on that on the UK Health Agency website. A final point, Netweather is not a social media platform where anything goes. We are a private weather forum and we have guidelines that members must follow if they wish to continue on here, in particular 'be kind' and 'be tolerant'. You can find the guidelines here so if you are not familiar with them please pop over and have a read. So let's make the forum an enjoyable place for everyone, whatever their weather preference. Many thanks.

Just a reminder folks, the banner at the top of every page in here makes it clear: This thread is for those who don't enjoy the heat to discuss that and offer support to each other through the summer months. If you don't feel similarly and don't have any empathy for those who do, please don't post in here. So if you feel that someone has made a post in here that is unsympathetic or critical of those who don't like heat, please use the report button (click on the 3 dots, top right of the post to find this) and the team will take a look and take action as appropriate. Thank you.

Please folks, can we stick to discussing model output in here. Plenty of other threads available for chatting about past weather, changing climate, etc. Many thanks.

Thanks Metwatch. The temperature at which the heatwave threshold is exceeded raises an interesting issue in my mind. A look at the Met Office website shows that as a result of climate change and consequent rising temperatures, the bar for a heatwave temperature threshold keeps being raised. So, for example, what constituted a heatwave in the 1960's and 1970's wouldn't be classed as a heatwave today for many areas, especially following the latest raising of thresholds in 2022 to take into account the higher temps from the 1991 - 2020 reference period. I don't know what you (or others) think, but the process doesn't seem right to me. Take Lincolnshire - the threshold was broken if it went above 25C during the 1960's and 1970's. Today it needs to get above 27C to break the threshold. One obvious question - are temperate climate humans really becoming acclimatised in so short a time to ever higher temperatures? If not it doesn't seem right to keep raising the threshold, thus 'concealing' a heatwave. Here are the changing threshold charts and narrative from the Met Office: The central map above shows the original thresholds, the right hand one the updated thresholds and, as an additional demonstration of our changing climate, the left hand one shows what they would have been if we had had this definition in place for 1961-1990. Counties changing from a 27C to a 28C threshold: Surrey, Berkshire, Buckinghamshire, Bedfordshire, Hertfordshire, Cambridgeshire Counties changing from a 26C to a 27C threshold: Lincolnshire Counties changing from a 25C to a 26C threshold: East Riding of Yorkshire Source: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2022/heatwave-threshold-changes

Many places now exceeding the Met Office Heatwave Temperature Threshold. Alongside are the nationwide temperatures at 15.00, so some way to go before the afternoon maximums. Many above 27C and Lakenheath RAF Base at 28C. So imho I think it's reasonable for many to be saying it's hot. Sources: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/types-of-weather/temperature/heatwave https://www.netweather.tv/extra/radar/

Just to support what you say WDW, here's the satellite image from 07.35 as seen from Eumetsat. I've circled where I think you are and you were definitely in the clag and with 0 mph wind earlier, whilst not many miles away folk woke up to clear sky. High res models suggest cloud struggling to completely clear in your part of the world until this evening. Better luck tomorrow! Source: Netweather Extra satellite with overlays. EDIT: Glad the sun's out now.

A teleconnection that's worth having on-side if your preference is a colder winter is the QBO. This is forecast to be in the negative phase (easterly zonal winds over the equator at 30hPa) for the coming winter 2023/24. Here's the latest QBO analysis from NASA showing the easterlies descending through the atmosphere with weak easterlies now at 30hPa and these will strengthen as we move into winter: Source: https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/qbo/qbo.html#intro And zooming in, here's the monthly data for 2023 to July (in table format) showing the trend to negative: Source: https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/qbo/QBO_Singapore_Uvals_GSFC.txt Here's what the Met Office say about the importance of which phase: Why is the QBO important? The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation can affect the Atlantic jet stream. The speed of the winds in the jet stream weaken and strengthen with the direction of the QBO. The jet stream is an important atmospheric feature that brings us our weather here in the UK, and the risk of winter conditions in Northern Europe can differ depending on the phase of the QBO: When the QBO is easterly, the chance of a weak jet stream, sudden stratospheric warming events and colder winters in Northern Europe is increased. When the QBO is westerly, the chance of a strong jet, a mild winter, winter storms and heavy rainfall increases. Source: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/atmosphere/quasi-biennial-oscillation

As it's very relevant to this thread, I'd like to copy over a couple of posts regarding the latest ECMWF seasonal outlook for D/J/F made on X (twitter) and in the Model thread. First, the ECM forecasts as posted by Nick on X which includes a response from James Peacock: And this post discussing the ECM forecast made by @CreweCold: Having higher than average heights around Greenland would be very good news for winter lovers. Temperature anomaly charts will always show warmer than average at this lead time…there’s hardly any below average shown anywhere. It’s the height anomalies that need to be taken notice of. It’s hinting at a stronger S arm of the jet, which may send LP into France rather than across the UK. One of our snowiest set ups E.g 78/79 There’s a signal for a cold Europe there. It’s a very 09/10 signal with that European trough. I saw an overnight low of -15 that winter. The UKs coldest winter since 78/79. If you follow the ENSO thread, you’ll know this scenario has been my thinking for a month or two now. Fww, I agree with Crewe. This seasonal forecast, from the best model out there, contains some encouraging early pointers if some cold, seasonal weather is your thing.

A little earlier than usual, but as there seems to be a fair bit of interest on the forum already to discuss the upcoming prospects for Winter 2023/24, here's a new thread to capture everyones thinking and forecasts for the approaching winter season. It would be good to make this thread the 'go-to' for all the seasonal model output and discussions about the 23/24 winter. For anyone new to looking at seasonal prospects, here's a few links that you may find useful: Copernicus Seasonal Models Met Office Contingency Planner 3 Month Outlook (not yet relevant, but the link provided for future reference) Severe Weather Europe - their thoughts on how the emerging El Nino could impact prospects. If you’d like to know more from the Met Office about seasonal forecasts and the teleconnection drivers, have a look at this link: Seasonal forecasts and climate drivers resources As always, please keep discussions friendly and respectful.

Awful first thing this morning and I too lit up the woodburner for 45 mins to take the chill off the temp inside the house. Not too bad out now with sunny spells and temp currently 18.6C. For the record, yesterday's rainfall totals as calculated by the hi res radar. Many seeing a good inch (25 mm) of rain: Source: Netweather Extra Hi Res radar

Lol, very funny TN. Maybe it's after going on the pirates boat ride at the funfair? Just to add to what Summer tyre has said above. During a week's holiday last summer on the South Coast, mostly spent split between Eastbourne and Hastings, another noticeable microclimate impact was how, on many days, the cumulus built up inland as the heat of the sun caused convection, but out over the cool sea no convection and no clouds at all. So with the sun to the south out over the sea and the beaches facing south, unbroken sunshine for holidaymakers.

Headlines from the United Nations 2022 report World Population Prospects 2022: The world’s population continues to grow, but the pace of growth is slowing down The population (currently 8 billion) is projected to reach a peak of around 10.4 billion people during the 2080s and to remain at that level until 2100 Full report: https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/wpp2022_summary_of_results.pdf

Hi Reefseeker. Looking at the Arpege wind gust forecast for 11.00 tomorrow morning, once you get away from the immediate coast where gusts will be around 60 km/h (37 mph) you should be fine. As you say, wind generally from a point behind you. The worst of the winds blow through in the evening for Midsomer Norton with gusts around 75 km/h (46 mph). Have a safe journey.

Yes Neil, the wind convergence line definitely further east. But I mustn't grumble too much for my location as I only narrowly missed a storm here, with activity rumbling away all around me. However, I'm thinking the Arpege 20.00 forecast I put up earlier will be a complete bust - I'll check it out later. Lightning today, 4th Aug: Source: Netweather Extra UK Lightning Detector EDIT: 20.00 update and indeed the Arpege forecast posted earlier with an intensified convergence line is a bust. And as can be seen, the wind convergence further east. And storm Antoni entering stage left. 20.00

12.15 and we have lift-off along the forecast convergence line:

Clouds starting to bubble up here in South Suffolk:

You may have seen the recent TV weather forecasts mentioning the line of showers expected to form this afternoon/evening as the winds converge down the middle of our Region. Here's how Arpege model sees it developing and I've selected the charts for 16.00 and 20.00 to illustrate. At 16.00 the wind convergence is somewhat fragmented (I can see at least 3 areas) and the result is a slightly broader area where showers could form: By 20.00 Arpege suggests the wind convergence is forming almost a perfect straight line down the middle of the Region with the result that the line of showers is 'tighter' and more defined with a narrow band of heavy precipitation: Now over to the radar to see what happens.

Ah! The dreaded mobile phone apps! To be fair, the BBC use Meteogroup (a subsidiary of the Thyssen-Bornemisza Group, a private investment firm based in Zurich, Switzerland) and they use a blend of ECMWF, GFS and UKMO models to produce customer forecasts, so you would think more accurate than most. Here's an interesting extract from their "The making of a weather forecast" website: MeteoGroup uses a combination of three weather prediction models to arrive at the best result. These are the European model (operated by ECMWF), the American model (operated by US NCEP), and the British model (produced by UKMO). Our long-standing use of each of these models has taught us how well each scores on the various elements, which allows us to give a certain weighting in relation to each weather element to be calculated. The most important step in our production of the specific forecasts we offer customers involves adding value to the data we buy. Our innovative, cross-functional Weather Systems Team is responsible for a bulk of (machine learning) post-processing algorithms we run on all of the data obtained from the models. Post-processing is used to correct the quite coarse-scale nature of model output; these corrections are necessary to ensure that local effects are taken into consideration. Source and full article: https://medium.com/@meteogroup/the-making-of-a-weather-forecast-4ee5bfcc942e

A bit harsh Pete! But I understand where you're coming from. The trouble with the Met Office warnings is they are very broad-brush, in yesterday's case basically warning that anywhere in the south of the UK could see a storm, which raised expectations across a wide area. And although some storms did indeed occur (see actual lightning count below) unfortunately for us storm lovers not a lot happened across our Region (Chelmsford the exception). But as @Eagle Eye posted in the Storm thread yesterday morning, the Convective Weather outlook more accurately gave only a "low to slight" risk of lightning, setting more realistic expectations. Met O warning: Actual lightning count 24 hrs to 07.30 3rd Aug:

For info, the July 2023 stats have just been posted in the Weather Records & Stats thread.