[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

No real let up in the very wet October of 2023. The last week of the month shaping up to be very wet for the south of the Region with multiple fronts sweeping through as low pressure dominates. Anywhere south of the M4 looks particularly soggy. There's the potential for 100 to 125mm (4 to 5 inches) of rain for Sussex if GFS is to be believed with ECM not much better suggesting the possibility of up to 100mm. This month on course to go down as a record breaking wet one!

Here's the cumulative rainfall from Tues 24th to month's end from GFS and ECM:

 

Sources:
GFS https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php 
ECM: https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/medium-rain-acc?base_time=202310240000&projection=opencharts_north_west_europe&valid_time=202310311800
 

 

[SE, London and East Anglia - Weather Records and Statistics]

Storm Babet badly affecting most of the country, but here in our Region it appears that Suffolk came off the worse as the frontal system stalled over the county before continuing to move north. Here's the rainfall totals for the period 16th-22nd Oct with Babet being responsible for most of the soaking:

And here's how Dan Holley, Weatherquest, presented the rainfall for the worse couple of days:

Zooming in locally to the Met Office weather station at Wattisham, this tweet with an amazing graph shows how the October rainfall so far (to the 21st Oct) has smashed the previous record for the station:

Rainfall at Wattisham in Suffolk off the scale... up to 196.4mm for the month so far now (not including today), trashing the old October record of 138.7mm dating back to 1960.

Edit: Tweet with graph for record breaking 3-day rainfall for "Central" Region added.

For the "Central" region (encompassing Midlands + eastern England), the HadUKP series provisionally suggests the 19-20 October 2023 was the wettest 2-day period (54.8mm) in the whole dataset (back to 1931). The 18-20 October was also the wettest 3-day period (70.0mm) on record.

Source: Dan Holley, Weatherquest. https://x.com/danholley_/status/1716014653946372105?s=20

 

Source: https://x.com/RoostWeather/status/1715748385842430409?s=20

[Storm Babet]

4 minutes ago, Northwest NI said:

That map, for my area looks strange because there wasn’t much rain here. Northwest Ireland escaped the worst of this weather but shows up as red, just like Eastern Scotland and Yorkshire/Derbyshire areas that absolutely got battered.

I believe it's down to the chart I posted being cumulative rainfall over 4 days? Storm Babet was just starting to impact NW Ireland on Tues and then gave some further rain on Wed, Thur and Friday. So no one day with big totals, but over the week it added up? Here's the daily tally from the radar:

Tues  Weds

Thur  Fri

And I've used Ogimet to check the totals recorded by the automated Met Office weather station at Castlederg and it shows 68mm (2.7 inches) of rain over the 4 days 17th - 21st Oct:

Let me know if there's a more suitable automated station and I'll run the figures for that too.

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

Here's an update of the situation in East Anglia, courtesy of Dan Holley, Weatherquest:

An extraordinary day, with many areas receiving more than a month's worth of rain in 24 hours. Thetford was the wettest location, with 87mm. Gauges on the River Ore (Framlingham) and Deben recorded their highest levels on record (since 2000/1).

Multiple river gauges in #Suffolk have set new records for water levels over the past 24 hours. On this basis, #StormBabet appears to be the worst flooding in parts of Suffolk for several decades at least, in some cases for more than 35 years.

River level records:

Source: Dan Holley, X @danholley_

 

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

I've just posted this in the Storm Babet thread:

Here's Storm Babet's nation-wide rainfall totals so far - as calculated by the Netweather V8 Hi Res radar. The chart shows the rainfall accumulation for the period Mon 16th Oct through to Fri 20th and as there was negligible rainfall on Mon and Tues - before the storm arrived - it's a good estimate of the rainfall resulting from the storm.

Extensive flooding here in Hadleigh with the River Brett bursting its banks in multiple locations. The Met Office station at Wattisham has recorded 78mm (3 inches) of rain arising from the storm and from the radar accumulations I can see it was probably more than that in the upstream catchment area for the river. I spent Thurs helping a friend fill sandbags and put up his flood barrier, but he's sent me a short text this morning to say his house flooded at 02.00 this morning.

[Storm Babet]

Here's Storm Babet's nation-wide rainfall totals so far - as calculated by the Netweather V8 Hi Res radar. The chart shows the rainfall accumulation for the period Mon 16th Oct through to Fri 20th and as there was negligible rainfall on Mon and Tues - before the storm arrived - it's a good estimate of the rainfall resulting from the storm (which is ongoing, so the chart will need updating to include Sat totals). 

Source: Netweather Extra

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

Yes @Bolt From Blue, the flooding has been very bad in Suffolk today. The front made painfully slow progress moving north. These radar grabs illustrate the slow progress and persistence of the rain:

07.45  12.05

And a few pics of the resultant flooding:

Framlingham  Kersey (a mile from me)

Sudbury

And to emphasise the seriousness, a Major Incident declared for Suffolk:

Major incident as flooding hits East of England
A major incident is declared in Suffolk, with people advised to travel only if "absolutely essential"
Source: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-england-norfolk-67167972

 

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

Flood warning just issued for the River Brett that runs through my town. Poor performance from the Environment Agency who only issued the warning just before lunch today. Luckily I warned my friend - who lives next to the river - about the risk yesterday and spent yesterday afternoon helping him fill sandbags and put up his flood barriers.

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

So that's the whole Region under a Yellow Warning for rain now. Also a 'strong wind' warning for the East Anglian coastal strip which is bad news for towns such as Hemsby which lost 2 to 3 metres of coastline to the sea last weekend and is likely to see a further amount of erosion in the next 24 hours.

Hemsby

[Record Breaking / Abnormal Weather Events Globally]

As requested by the thread author, can we stick to discussing record breaking and abnormal weather events in this thread please. If you wish to discuss climate change then head over to the Climate Change area. Thank you.

I have moved last night's climate discussions here:

 

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

Here's the latest output from a selection of models showing the expected rainfall accumulation from today (Weds) through to end Saturday 21st. Whilst much of the broadcast media seems to be focussing on the impact for NE Scotland - where indeed there will be large totals accumulating 141mm** or 5.6 inches on the hills - my attention is drawn to the prospect of 75mm (3 inches) in the built-up SE corner of the Region. That's going to bring a real possibility of flash flooding and disruption to road and rail travel. Indeed, for many other parts of the Region including London there could be 50mm+ (2 inches). The timing of the most disruptive rainfall will be from Friday teatime through to Saturday teatime with 24 hours of heavy rain. It's a situation that needs watching as the models fine tune their output.

Output from Arpege, GFS and UKV. Interesting that UKV on its own suggesting the largest accumulations are further along the South Coast towards Portsmouth:

Sources:
Arpege and GFS https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/
UKV (Netweather Extra) https://www.netweather.tv/secure/cgi-bin/premium.pl?;sess=

Edit: **Latest forecasts suggesting 200mm for the hills of NE Scotland and UKV data even suggesting the possibility of 300mm!! Remarkable totals in such a short space of time and a real worry for that part of Scotland.

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

With Storm Babet heading towards the UK, the Met Office have issued a yellow warning for rain to impact the north of our Region late Wednesday 18th through to and including Saturday 21st. Looking at the models the period of particularly heavy rain is expected through Friday into Saturday, and they suggest it's eastern coastal counties that are particularly impacted. Models indicating most of the Region sees 25mm (an inch) of rain, but up to 50mm for some.

Warning:

Cumulative rainfall to end Sat:

Rainfall animation to midday Sun:

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

Down to 2C at 22.46 this evening (Sunday). On the drive, the roof of my car now twinkling with frost.

[V8 radar broken]

If it helps, I'm able to access the V8 radar on both my laptop and mobile this evening (21.39).

[SE, London and East Anglia - Weather Records and Statistics]

October 2023 warmth - Met Office tweet on 10th Oct:

Writtle in Essex has recorded 25.7 °C this afternoon, making it 4 days in a row with temperatures above 25 °C. The last time this happened in October was back in 1959.

Source: https://x.com/metoffice/status/1711750044292923512?s=20

And from Dan Holley, Weatherquest:

EAST: We've now recorded four consecutive days ≥25°C this October — since 1900 this has only happened twice before, in 1921 and 1959. Max temps in this region over the past few days:

• Sat: 25.2°C Shoeburyness
• Sun: 25.5°C Cavendish
• Mon: 25.6°C Cavendish
• Tue: 25.7°C Writtle

Source: https://x.com/danholley_/status/1711807252321927407?s=20

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

After the current period of summer-like weather the change that's on the way for us will be all the more noteable. From Weds a series of fronts move in to give rainfall amounts of 30mm+ for many by close Friday. And then as the fronts clear and the rain stops during Saturday, the 850hPa airmass (temp at approx 1,500m) falls from the +15C we will see today (Tues 10th) to -5C by Sunday 15th. This equating to a drop from a widespread 23C max today to maybe a 8C max by Sunday. Brrr. Here's the story in charts:

The fronts:

The rainfall Wed - Fri:

The 850 airmass 10th and 15th:

Sources:
Fax charts https://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm
Rainfall and temps: https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/

[Global Surface Air & Sea Temperatures: Current Conditions and Future Prospects]

Copernicus Report 05th Oct 2023:

September 2023 – unprecedented temperature anomalies; 2023 on track to be the warmest year on record

The unprecedented temperatures for the time of year observed in September - following a record summer - have broken records by an extraordinary amount. This extreme month has pushed 2023 into the dubious honour of first place - on track to be the warmest year and around 1.4°C above preindustrial average temperatures. Two months out from COP28 – the sense of urgency for ambitious climate action has never been more critical.

Source: https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-september-2023-unprecedented-temperature-anomalies

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

September 2023 weather summary posted in the Records & Stats thread:

 

[SE, London and East Anglia - Weather Records and Statistics]

September 2023

With a significant contribution from the five consecutive days of +30C temperatures at the start of September the month has been a record breaker. For the Region as a whole temperatures have been way above the long term (1991-2020) average and for many parts of the Region drier and sunnier than average.

This Sept summary from the Met Office:

Joint-warmest September on record for UK
The UK had its joint-warmest September on record in a series which goes back to 1884 according to provisional Met Office statistics. The UK’s September 2023 mean temperature of 15.2°C puts it level with 2006’s record figure in statistics that have been ‘substantially influenced’ by the impact of climate change.

Source: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2023/joint-warmest-september-on-record-for-uk

Zooming in on the stats for East Anglia as a whole:

• Warmest September on record (+3.0°C)
• Near-average rainfall (98%)
• Sunniest September since 2003 (120%)
• September was warmer than all three summer months — this has only happened twice before, in 1890 and 1929 (records back to 1884).

With thanks to Dan Holley, Weatherquest, for the chart and stats.
Source: https://x.com/danholley_/status/1708820898407399835?s=20

[Autumn 2023]

This is the Autumn 2023 thread and not the place for Climate Change discussion. A moderator has already requested that the thread moves on, however CC arguments have continued apace. The team are now also dealing with reports from members also fed up with the thread being derailed.

I'm sorry but any more off-topic posts will also be removed.

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

13 minutes ago, Dami said:

I'm guessing it's meant to be there, i have an extra side bar which wasn't there before and everything seems jumbled. 

 

Thanks Dami. That doesn't look right at all. I'll ask @Paul to kindly take a look and advise.

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

2 hours ago, Dami said:

Boring weather.

P.S not loving the new forum set up.

Hi Dami. I'm not aware of any new forum setup or layout. All looking normal on my phone and laptop. Any changes your end (access device, browser used, etc)? Let me know and I'll raise with Paul.

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

Decaying showers moving east have just arrived in Suffolk to give a few drops of rain after a dry day. The clouds made for a lovely sky just now:

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

1 hour ago, alexisj9 said:

And it's moving more up than across, so anyone under that is getting a lot of rain.

Yes, it certainly does look wet under that cold front as it slowly crawls eastward. There's not been a lot of progress over the last two hours and whilst the squall line appears to be less potent, the front seems to be pepping up to give a broader area of heavy rain.

19.30  21.30

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

Nice squall line crossing the Region this evening:

19.30: