Blessed Weather
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This request has been posted in the Heat Haters and Poor Summer Haters clubs as well as the Summer Chat thread.
Sadly there are too many posts being made that are intolerant of the views and preferences of others about the type of weather they enjoy/don't enjoy. Whether you are in the heat haters or heat lovers camp, there really isn't any need to be making critical, goading or belittling posts towards the other camp. And in case some didn't appreciate, there can be genuine medical/health reasons why some people cannot tolerate heat. You can find more info on that on the UK Health Agency website.A final point, Netweather is not a social media platform where anything goes. We are a private weather forum and we have guidelines that members must follow if they wish to continue on here, in particular 'be kind' and 'be tolerant'. You can find the guidelines here so if you are not familiar with them please pop over and have a read.
So let's make the forum an enjoyable place for everyone, whatever their weather preference.
Many thanks.
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Just a reminder folks, the banner at the top of every page in here makes it clear:
This thread is for those who don't enjoy the heat to discuss that and offer support to each other through the summer months. If you don't feel similarly and don't have any empathy for those who do, please don't post in here.
So if you feel that someone has made a post in here that is unsympathetic or critical of those who don't like heat, please use the report button (click on the 3 dots, top right of the post to find this) and the team will take a look and take action as appropriate. Thank you.
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Please folks, can we stick to discussing model output in here. Plenty of other threads available for chatting about past weather, changing climate, etc. Many thanks.
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24 minutes ago, Metwatch said:
About 25 stations exceeded their heatwave threshold but more for N / NW england as the threshold is lower there, A few into Lincolnshire just about with a higher threshold. Quite warm but the humidity probably making it feel warmer for some. Map from RoostWeather site.
Thanks Metwatch. The temperature at which the heatwave threshold is exceeded raises an interesting issue in my mind. A look at the Met Office website shows that as a result of climate change and consequent rising temperatures, the bar for a heatwave temperature threshold keeps being raised. So, for example, what constituted a heatwave in the 1960's and 1970's wouldn't be classed as a heatwave today for many areas, especially following the latest raising of thresholds in 2022 to take into account the higher temps from the 1991 - 2020 reference period.
I don't know what you (or others) think, but the process doesn't seem right to me. Take Lincolnshire - the threshold was broken if it went above 25C during the 1960's and 1970's. Today it needs to get above 27C to break the threshold. One obvious question - are temperate climate humans really becoming acclimatised in so short a time to ever higher temperatures? If not it doesn't seem right to keep raising the threshold, thus 'concealing' a heatwave.
Here are the changing threshold charts and narrative from the Met Office:
The central map above shows the original thresholds, the right hand one the updated thresholds and, as an additional demonstration of our changing climate, the left hand one shows what they would have been if we had had this definition in place for 1961-1990.
Counties changing from a 27C to a 28C threshold:
Surrey, Berkshire, Buckinghamshire, Bedfordshire, Hertfordshire, Cambridgeshire
Counties changing from a 26C to a 27C threshold:
Lincolnshire
Counties changing from a 25C to a 26C threshold:
East Riding of Yorkshire
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1 hour ago, Arch Stanton said:
What's this 'heat' is everyone referring to today? its just warm outside, 24c is not hot.
I'm genuinely bemused by some of the comments here which I could understand if the temperatures were in the high 20's or 30s.Many places now exceeding the Met Office Heatwave Temperature Threshold. Alongside are the nationwide temperatures at 15.00, so some way to go before the afternoon maximums. Many above 27C and Lakenheath RAF Base at 28C. So imho I think it's reasonable for many to be saying it's hot.
Sources:
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/types-of-weather/temperature/heatwave
https://www.netweather.tv/extra/radar/-
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1 hour ago, Wynn D Woo said:
Got out of bed and dressed in Shorts and t-shirt in anticipation of the nicer weather arriving - opened the curtains and it was foggy...proper November morning!
Even now it has only lifted to grey cloud and no sign of any sunshine...
Just to support what you say WDW, here's the satellite image from 07.35 as seen from Eumetsat. I've circled where I think you are and you were definitely in the clag and with 0 mph wind earlier, whilst not many miles away folk woke up to clear sky. High res models suggest cloud struggling to completely clear in your part of the world until this evening. Better luck tomorrow!
Source: Netweather Extra satellite with overlays.
EDIT: Glad the sun's out now.
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A teleconnection that's worth having on-side if your preference is a colder winter is the QBO. This is forecast to be in the negative phase (easterly zonal winds over the equator at 30hPa) for the coming winter 2023/24. Here's the latest QBO analysis from NASA showing the easterlies descending through the atmosphere with weak easterlies now at 30hPa and these will strengthen as we move into winter:
Source: https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/qbo/qbo.html#intro
And zooming in, here's the monthly data for 2023 to July (in table format) showing the trend to negative:
Source: https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/qbo/QBO_Singapore_Uvals_GSFC.txt
Here's what the Met Office say about the importance of which phase:
Why is the QBO important?
The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation can affect the Atlantic jet stream. The speed of the winds in the jet stream weaken and strengthen with the direction of the QBO. The jet stream is an important atmospheric feature that brings us our weather here in the UK, and the risk of winter conditions in Northern Europe can differ depending on the phase of the QBO:
- When the QBO is easterly, the chance of a weak jet stream, sudden stratospheric warming events and colder winters in Northern Europe is increased.
- When the QBO is westerly, the chance of a strong jet, a mild winter, winter storms and heavy rainfall increases.
Source: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/atmosphere/quasi-biennial-oscillation
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As it's very relevant to this thread, I'd like to copy over a couple of posts regarding the latest ECMWF seasonal outlook for D/J/F made on X (twitter) and in the Model thread. First, the ECM forecasts as posted by Nick on X which includes a response from James Peacock:
And this post discussing the ECM forecast made by @CreweCold:
Having higher than average heights around Greenland would be very good news for winter lovers. Temperature anomaly charts will always show warmer than average at this lead time…there’s hardly any below average shown anywhere. It’s the height anomalies that need to be taken notice of.
It’s hinting at a stronger S arm of the jet, which may send LP into France rather than across the UK. One of our snowiest set ups E.g 78/79
There’s a signal for a cold Europe there.
It’s a very 09/10 signal with that European trough. I saw an overnight low of -15 that winter. The UKs coldest winter since 78/79.
If you follow the ENSO thread, you’ll know this scenario has been my thinking for a month or two now.Fww, I agree with Crewe. This seasonal forecast, from the best model out there, contains some encouraging early pointers if some cold, seasonal weather is your thing.
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A little earlier than usual, but as there seems to be a fair bit of interest on the forum already to discuss the upcoming prospects for Winter 2023/24, here's a new thread to capture everyones thinking and forecasts for the approaching winter season. It would be good to make this thread the 'go-to' for all the seasonal model output and discussions about the 23/24 winter.
For anyone new to looking at seasonal prospects, here's a few links that you may find useful:
Met Office Contingency Planner 3 Month Outlook (not yet relevant, but the link provided for future reference)
Severe Weather Europe - their thoughts on how the emerging El Nino could impact prospects.
If you’d like to know more from the Met Office about seasonal forecasts and the teleconnection drivers, have a look at this link:
Seasonal forecasts and climate drivers resources
As always, please keep discussions friendly and respectful.
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Awful first thing this morning and I too lit up the woodburner for 45 mins to take the chill off the temp inside the house. Not too bad out now with sunny spells and temp currently 18.6C.
For the record, yesterday's rainfall totals as calculated by the hi res radar. Many seeing a good inch (25 mm) of rain:
Source: Netweather Extra Hi Res radar
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9 hours ago, TN9 said:
Put your sail up ...hoist the colours and your be in Reading at a fair few knots ..since I've been in Hastings I've got all nautical....I can't fathom it out
...what i find is strange ..
is how somewhere just a few miles, away (the way the crow flies ,has its own little micro climate ...you all must as weather people experience that on holiday ..that wasn't ment to happen etc etc ..crazy ..not saying if your in the Caribbean or Mediterranean but literally just down the road
..fascinating
..
Lol, very funny TN. Maybe it's after going on the pirates boat ride at the funfair?
Just to add to what Summer tyre has said above. During a week's holiday last summer on the South Coast, mostly spent split between Eastbourne and Hastings, another noticeable microclimate impact was how, on many days, the cumulus built up inland as the heat of the sun caused convection, but out over the cool sea no convection and no clouds at all. So with the sun to the south out over the sea and the beaches facing south, unbroken sunshine for holidaymakers.
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3 minutes ago, jonboy said:
One statement I would disagree with is 'our ever expanding population ' it is clear if anything we will very soon reach peak population and will start to see a decline in population. Hence why you see China encouraging larger families and failing. As more countries become less poor and infant mortality falls the need for large families decrease
I would expect that within 50 years max we will see population decline
Headlines from the United Nations 2022 report World Population Prospects 2022:
- The world’s population continues to grow, but the pace of growth is slowing down
- The population (currently 8 billion) is projected to reach a peak of around 10.4 billion people during the 2080s and to remain at that level until 2100
Full report: https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/wpp2022_summary_of_results.pdf
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2 hours ago, Reefseeker said:
Hmmm, so I'm driving from Bournemouth to Midsomer Norton (just outside of Bath) tomorrow morning, to have lunch with my mother and then drive her to Reading in the afternoon to stay at my sister's. Looking at the Met Office warnings, I'm wondering if we'll be better off leaving early to get ahead of the strongest winds. The way it looks with the timing of the event, we'll be driving along WITH the winds!
Hi Reefseeker. Looking at the Arpege wind gust forecast for 11.00 tomorrow morning, once you get away from the immediate coast where gusts will be around 60 km/h (37 mph) you should be fine. As you say, wind generally from a point behind you. The worst of the winds blow through in the evening for Midsomer Norton with gusts around 75 km/h (46 mph). Have a safe journey.
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3 hours ago, Neilsouth said:
Hi Blessed Weather, the wind convergence was slightly further east than your chart suggested but not far off. Storms formed pretty much bang along the coast line, from North Kent, East of Ashford down towards Folkestone. Whereas areas say Ashford, Sellindge which is around mid kent was just a bit to far west
Yes Neil, the wind convergence line definitely further east. But I mustn't grumble too much for my location as I only narrowly missed a storm here, with activity rumbling away all around me. However, I'm thinking the Arpege 20.00 forecast I put up earlier will be a complete bust - I'll check it out later.
Lightning today, 4th Aug:
Source: Netweather Extra UK Lightning Detector
EDIT: 20.00 update and indeed the Arpege forecast posted earlier with an intensified convergence line is a bust. And as can be seen, the wind convergence further east. And storm Antoni entering stage left.
20.00
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12.15 and we have lift-off along the forecast convergence line:
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Clouds starting to bubble up here in South Suffolk:
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You may have seen the recent TV weather forecasts mentioning the line of showers expected to form this afternoon/evening as the winds converge down the middle of our Region. Here's how Arpege model sees it developing and I've selected the charts for 16.00 and 20.00 to illustrate.
At 16.00 the wind convergence is somewhat fragmented (I can see at least 3 areas) and the result is a slightly broader area where showers could form:
By 20.00 Arpege suggests the wind convergence is forming almost a perfect straight line down the middle of the Region with the result that the line of showers is 'tighter' and more defined with a narrow band of heavy precipitation:
Now over to the radar to see what happens.
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24 minutes ago, Methuselah said:
It was all the lightning symbols on my BBC app that pushed me over edge!
Ah! The dreaded mobile phone apps!
To be fair, the BBC use Meteogroup (a subsidiary of the Thyssen-Bornemisza Group, a private investment firm based in Zurich, Switzerland) and they use a blend of ECMWF, GFS and UKMO models to produce customer forecasts, so you would think more accurate than most. Here's an interesting extract from their "The making of a weather forecast" website:
MeteoGroup uses a combination of three weather prediction models to arrive at the best result. These are the European model (operated by ECMWF), the American model (operated by US NCEP), and the British model (produced by UKMO). Our long-standing use of each of these models has taught us how well each scores on the various elements, which allows us to give a certain weighting in relation to each weather element to be calculated. The most important step in our production of the specific forecasts we offer customers involves adding value to the data we buy. Our innovative, cross-functional Weather Systems Team is responsible for a bulk of (machine learning) post-processing algorithms we run on all of the data obtained from the models. Post-processing is used to correct the quite coarse-scale nature of model output; these corrections are necessary to ensure that local effects are taken into consideration.
Source and full article: https://medium.com/@meteogroup/the-making-of-a-weather-forecast-4ee5bfcc942e
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12 hours ago, Methuselah said:
And not a single flash or rumble. What a load of crap these warnings are!
A bit harsh Pete! But I understand where you're coming from. The trouble with the Met Office warnings is they are very broad-brush, in yesterday's case basically warning that anywhere in the south of the UK could see a storm, which raised expectations across a wide area. And although some storms did indeed occur (see actual lightning count below) unfortunately for us storm lovers not a lot happened across our Region (Chelmsford the exception). But as @Eagle Eye posted in the Storm thread yesterday morning, the Convective Weather outlook more accurately gave only a "low to slight" risk of lightning, setting more realistic expectations.
Met O warning:
Actual lightning count 24 hrs to 07.30 3rd Aug:
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For info, the July 2023 stats have just been posted in the Weather Records & Stats thread.
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July 2023
The July stats confirm a disappointing month, especially with the below average sunshine levels and above average rainfall made even more noticeable following an exceptionally dry, warm and sunny June. A few observations: whilst the rainfall amounts averaged across the Region were above average, within that a patchy picture with some areas pretty much on the long-term average. Wrt sunshine amounts, it looks like the extreme coastal strip of N Suffolk/S Norfolk received around the average amount of sunshine. And is that Cambridge that looks to be an 'island' of average sunshine too?
Here's the national anomaly charts versus the 1991-2020 long-term average (mean temp, rainfall and sunshine):
Source: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/uk-actual-and-anomaly-maps
Focusing in on East Anglia stats, courtesy of Dan Holley, Weatherquest, reveals:
- Near-average temperatures (-0.2°C)
- Wettest July since 2015 (149%)
- Dullest July since 2012 (84%)
- Highest number of July rain days since 2012
- This was the first July to not reach or exceed 30°C in this region since 2012.
Source: Twitter @danholley_
Final thought. I'm not a big fan of the Met Office habit of updating the reference period against which monthly results are compared as it seems to me to mask the variation versus the longer term, i.e. it compares against the recent last 30 years, which is too short a period in time imho. Here's an example using July 2023 temperature anomaly compared with the two reference periods available. First, against the 1991-2020 period and this shows temps were 'average'. But compared against the older 1961-1990 period it shows temps were actually warmer. So with climate change and ever rising temperatures, by continually moving (updating) the reference period 'goalposts' are we giving a false impression when we compare monthly results with the so-called long-term average?
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21 minutes ago, Methuselah said:
As a guess, I'd go for more-or-less average temps and rainfall but slightly below-normal sunshine hours. But I'll wait for @Blessed Weather's data.
Not long to wait for the official stats Pete. It'll be interesting to see what the July rainfall anomaly for the East turns out to be. It may turn out above average for E Anglia thanks to Storm Poly (named by the German Met Service) which rattled through the EA/SE Region on the 4th - 5th July and (for example) deposited 55mm of rain in just six hours at Lowestoft on the Suffolk Coast. The average for July in the East is 56mm. But it wouldn't surprise me if parts of the SE corner come in slightly below average.
Rain totals 4th
5th
Source: Netweather Extra Hi-Res rainfall calculations.
ITV covered the Storm Poly story: A months worth of rainfall recorded in six hours in the East after the hottest June on record
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Just breaking in the media is this statement from the Met Office regarding the Nature article on the AMOC. I can't locate the official/original Met Office statement. Anyone got a link please?
“As far as we're concerned in the Met Office, the paper is far too simplistic,” said Richard Betts, the Head of the Climate Impacts at the Met Office Hadley Centre. He added: “There's still no evidence that we're kind of past the point of no return in terms of devastating impacts."
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10 hours ago, Mixer 85 said:
I’m struggling to see the rationale for concern regarding the AMOC. It’s an old chestnut that’s been rattled on about for years with only 20yrs of monitoring to support any theories of collapse.
The previous collapse is thought to have been caused by a sudden release of thousands of cubic miles of freshwater coming off a glacial lake on the North American/Canadian ice sheet. Thankfully there are no ice sheets there today and the only sheet capable of discharging that much water is Greenland which at the current melt rate will take about 17,000yrs to disappear.Whilst the previous collapse of the AMOC was likely caused by a huge outflow from a glacial lake, I believe the concerns this time around are based on the magnitude of the ongoing sea ice loss as global air and SST temperatures continue their upward trajectory.
There are known tipping points for many climate related aspects of our planet, for instance the melting of northern hemisphere permafrost e.g. in Siberia, has caused a 37% increase in small lakes (from the melting ice within the tundra) and this is causing ever more greenhouse gas emissions which will melt even more permafrost:
"As the permafrost thaws, microbes and fungi get to work and digest dead plants and other organic matter in the previously frozen soil. The process produces carbon dioxide, methane (CH4), nitrous oxide and other gases. This is a normal process. ‘Many lakes “burp” methane naturally,’ says Walter Anthony. In the normal scheme of things, the majority of bubbles in larger lakes would dissolve in the water column before reaching the surface. However, thanks to the speed of thawing and the morphology of the new lakes, the release of gases is happening at an unprecedented scale."
Source: https://geographical.co.uk/climate-change/the-big-thaw-melting-permafrost-is-causing-a-global-problemBack to the AMOC and what we don't fully understand is the tipping point of this current by (a) the rise in SSTs and (b) the ongoing release of large quantities of fresh water into the oceans. Here are some indisputable facts:
NASA reports the Greenland icesheet mass has been falling by 271 billion metric tons per year since 2002
Source: https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ice-sheets/
Copernicus Ocean State report 2022 reports Arctic sea ice loss 1979 to 2021 was an area of 2.14 million km2. About 6 times the area of Germany. They note that consequent changes to water salinity and temperature could impact the strength and flow of ocean currents.
Source: https://issuu.com/copernicusmarine_service/docs/2022.09.27_cosr_6_summary_single_page
My 'take' is that whilst there may indeed remain many unknowns, it's hard to argue against the evidence that we humans are conducting a very large experiment with earth's climate system.
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The poor summer haters club
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
This request has been posted in the Heat Haters and Poor Summer Haters clubs as well as the Summer Chat thread.
Sadly there are too many posts being made that are intolerant of the views and preferences of others about the type of weather they enjoy/don't enjoy. Whether you are in the heat haters or heat lovers camp, there really isn't any need to be making critical, goading or belittling posts towards the other camp. And in case some didn't appreciate, there can be genuine medical/health reasons why some people cannot tolerate heat. You can find more info on that on the UK Health Agency website.
A final point, Netweather is not a social media platform where anything goes. We are a private weather forum and we have guidelines that members must follow if they wish to continue on here, in particular 'be kind' and 'be tolerant'. You can find the guidelines here so if you are not familiar with them please pop over and have a read.
So let's make the forum an enjoyable place for everyone, whatever their weather preference.
Many thanks.