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Blessed Weather

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  1. Blessed Weather
    ^^ Thank goodness we've got the 'Lassie & Staines' show on this thread, to keep us smiling during dismal model output!! Nice start here; mainly clear sky but some very thin high cloud turning a nice pink as the sun came up. Down to -1C overnight so a touch of ground frost. Tomorrow looks interesting from a weather perspective with widespread and possibly freezing fog. A coating of rime over everything will make it look very pretty out..... but... an absolute nightmare for anyone planning a road trip tomorrow. Postpone if you can.
  2. Blessed Weather
    Unfortunately (for those of us seeking cold) the trend continues today - based on the 12z run the number of GEFS members forecasting a stronger-than-average Stratospheric Vortex at 10hPa 60N by the end of the forecast period (01-01-18) has now increased to 15 out of 21.
  3. Blessed Weather
    Well said bluebell and Blazerblue. It's a lovely start here - everything coated in a thick frost and down to -3.1C overnight. But the satellite image shows the warm front moving over us as I type, bringing rain later and heralding the end to this current spell of colder weather.
  4. Blessed Weather
    Thanks to some great photographers the current cold spell just keeps on providing us with fantastic pics of the snow covered Scottish Mountains. It's going to be a shame if the forecast upcoming milder, wetter spell washes away these beautiful scenes!
  5. Blessed Weather
    If the GEFS forecasts are correct I wonder if we might be about to enter a phase where the Strat Vortex shrugs off the early season knocks and starts to ramp up in strength? If I'm reading the charts correctly, current forecast Wave 1 activity peaks by the 23rd Dec and this coincides with the Zonal mean u-wind speed at 10hPa 60N reaching a low point of 15 m/s (today's figure - 16th Dec - is 23 m/s; note the record for this date is 53 m/s in 2015). By 31st Dec GEFS are predicting the Zonal u-wind speed will reach 43 m/s. And I've noted that the number of members forecasting a stronger-than-average Vortex by the end of the forecast period has been creeping up over the last few runs, to now reach 12 out of 21 members. And the Vortex at 10 hPa regains shape and moves closer to the Pole as the influence of the Alaskan ridge wanes. I'm hoping one of the Strat experts will tell me I'm worrying over nothing! Geopotential Wave 1 forecasts: 17th 25th 30th Geopotential Height, Temp and Zonal Wind forecasts: 16th 23rd 31st
  6. Blessed Weather
    Looking at the 0z GEFS output for 25th December there's 6 members out of 20, plus the Op run, going for the -4C isotherm over London. So whilst a minority option, a more festive (colder) Christmas day can't be completely ruled out. Let's see if the 6z run improves on this.
  7. Blessed Weather
    Latest on La Nina from NOAA. Rather a cryptic tweet, but a better explanation in the link I've pasted further down..... Full blog on the above tweet here: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/december-2017-la-niña-update-double-double
  8. Blessed Weather
    Great to have the blog back Julian. As you say, after several very poor 'season starts' over the last few years it's great that this year we have seen plentiful pre-season snowfall and thus start with a good snow base for the Christmas/New Year holiday period. And whilst the UK might see some mild SW'lies in the run-up to Christmas, over the Alps, with the current favourable forecast positioning of the high pressure, I believe resorts should avoid overly mild temps by day and enjoy negative overnight minimums allowing piste teams to maintain good skiing conditions. I wish I was setting off in a week's time!! P.S. I think the animated chart works very well with just the right timing. But have you posted freezing level figures in the 850 hPa tables, and vice versa, the 850 hPa figures are in the freezing level tables??
  9. Blessed Weather
    Shwmae. Sorry sneaking into your thread from over here in Suffolk (although maybe I qualify as I do come from Dinas Powys near Cardiff and Mum & Dad still live there! ). Anyway.... this tweet caught my eye - a wonderful example of the famous 'Pembrokeshire Dangler' in all its' glory this afternoon!!
  10. Blessed Weather
    Not a pleasant morning here in East Suffolk. Plenty of cloud moving quickly through on a gusty wind and temp only 3C. But a nice satellite image of the culprit - an area of low pressure spinning around in the North Sea just off the coast, throwing bands of showers across East Anglia. Fax Chart 06.00 Satellite 09.05
  11. Blessed Weather
  12. Blessed Weather
    Not at all SWH and it certainly wasn't my intention to challenge anything you said. Just interest on my part about how the models are performing. It's frustrating not to be able to get hold of stats for Europe. I agree that GFS appears to be doing somewhat better than ECM lately - but of course final verification of current forecasts catching our interest will be the proof of the pudding!!
  13. Blessed Weather
    Interesting discussions earlier about which model has been performing best at the moment in our neck of the woods. It does seem that GFS has been doing well lately. So while it's quiet, here's some NWP model comparisons. For some reason the European plots wouldn't work, but here's the latest (Aug 2017) RMS error rates (lower is better) for the 500hPa NH forecasts up to 240 hours. ECM clearly performing best throughout; with barely a hair's breadth between the other models at 120 hours; but at 240 hours GFS moving into 2nd place. http://apps.ecmwf.int/wmolcdnv/scores/mean/500_z Next, courtesy of the Canadian Met, the RMS error rates for the 500hPa forecasts at 120 hours each month since Nov 2011 to Oct 2017. I'm assuming this covers forecasts for the USA and Canada. Looking just at 2017, ECM again clearly ahead, although 2nd place switching back and forth between UKMet and GFS. https://weather.gc.ca/verification/monthly_ts_e.html
  14. Blessed Weather
    The BBC report below arising from the annual American Geophysical Union meeting in New Orleans, where Noaa presented its annual summation of Arctic science. Warmer Arctic is the 'new normal' - A warming, rapidly changing Arctic is the "new normal" and shows no signs of returning to the reliably frozen region of the past. This is according to the US NOAA Arctic Report Card. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-42330771?ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbc_weather&ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=news_central It's what I've been thinking for a couple of years now. It's not good news for the planet, but ironically I feel could make our winters here in Europe more interesting (for lovers of cold) as the PV will likely face more early season challenges through lack of temp gradient and thus meandering jet with consequent WAA into the Arctic to disrupt establishment.
  15. Blessed Weather
    Well when you're the PV and you can't settle down at home you may as well send the kids for an early winter break in Cornwall!!
  16. Blessed Weather
    It's a long time since I saw blowing snow drifting around here in the south of the UK, so I have to admit to a bit jealousy.....in fact, a lot of jealousy!!
  17. Blessed Weather
    Conditions looking rather testing for these boarders up on Glencoe today!!
  18. Blessed Weather
    The snowy wilderness of Alaska in mid-winter? No, our very own Scottish Highlands this week!!
  19. Blessed Weather
    With a thank you to Dan Holley of Weatherquest - the 'leader board' for last night's minimum temps:
  20. Blessed Weather
    Lovely morning after overnight min of -1.8C. Glad I don't have to venture out this morning onto the ice rink normally known as a road! The satellite image is interesting this morning and shows up the lying snow across the UK with Wales and the Pennines doing best. For our Region the demarcation line between snow or not can be seen roughly following a line just to the north of the M4 - although you can also pick out the exception - the high ground of Surrey. Also a north/south split in East Anglia.
  21. Blessed Weather
    With less than two weeks to go until Christmas Holiday skiers/boarders arrive, it's great to be able to report some decent snow depths in the Alps. Here's some figures in cm's from a handful of resorts in the French Alps which suggest that widely there's half a metre on lower pistes and a metre plus on upper slopes. Resort Depth Lower Depth Upper Tignes 108 165 Courchevel 75 100 Meribel 50 120 Avoriaz 80 120 Flaine 44 120 Megeve 50 100 Samoens 60 120 And looking at the 2m temperature forecasts out to 21st December it suggests that despite an easing in the very cold weather recently experienced, the Alps will retain reasonably cold surface temps in the run up to the holidays. Fingers crossed!!
  22. Blessed Weather
    A stunning photo taken from the top of the Old Man of Coniston in the Lake District this weekend (10th Dec).
  23. Blessed Weather
    Thanks Chris. I hadn't realised that. Dan's tweets are always interesting. Do you know what name he posts under here on Netweather?
  24. Blessed Weather
    Interesting tweet from a guy who works for a private weather company based in Norwich:
  25. Blessed Weather
    Wow! What a first day back from my 2 weeks in the Yukon, Canada. I've been trying to keep up with developments from over there and have been reading about the corrections south in the track of the Low. You can actually see the eye of the Low this morning on the radar, moving from being over the Welsh Valleys at 09.25 to being over Swindon at 10.20 - so tracking roughly along the M4 with snow to the north of the track and sleet/rain to the south. The rain to start here on the Suffolk coast earlier has turned to snow and now a few cm's settled.
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