Blessed Weather

Awful atm in my part of Suffolk. Hammering down with a gusty wind and very dark as the area of heavy rain moves through.

Sun's just appeared here in Suffolk - on it's way down to you @Daniel*. Sharpish drop in temp too as the front went through, falling from 11.9C around midday to 9.8C by 15.00.

Great blog Julian. Thanks. The heavy snowfall expected here in the French Alps didn't arrive today (Friday). I've watched the forecasts slip back and back as the incoming front stalls out west. The cold temps not arriving either and a brisk southerly wind, so a bit slushy down in the village a few degrees above. But at least another good day's skiing 'up top' in variable cloud. The off-piste freaks in our chalet group reckon they've had the best week's skiing ever after last weekend's heavy fall. Last day tomorrow before flying home Sunday..... darn it, where did that week go!!

Hi Daniel. Now that's a good question and you'd think you can never have too much..... but actually for those of us who are on a week's skiing/boarding trip to the Alps, if really heavy snowfall happens during your trip it can definitely wipe out some of your holiday! I arrived in Val d'Isere Sunday in heavy snowfall which kept going - so no lifts or pistes open Monday and then only a third of the resort opened on Tuesday as they still had to clear multiple avalanche risks and prepare (piste) runs. This meant that Tuesday, with very limited lifts open, the queues were horrific - half hour wait to get on a chairlift. Finally today (Weds) the sun has shone and most of the resort is open - so it's been fantastic with everyone finally spread over the mountain with no queues and empty pistes!! This coming Friday the heavy snow is forecast to set in again - so maybe another day where skiing will be very limited. But I'm not moaning as it's been a great week to be in the Alps and experience the extreme weather. Wish you were here!! A few pics from today.

What a stunning photo from up on Aonach Mor yesterday (Sun 21st Jan):

Sacré bleu!! Here we are on Monday morning and it's been snowing hard all night and now the wind has got up and it's blowing around. The local Val d'Isere radio has just confirmed what the resort 'app' is saying - the resort access road is blocked and the village now cut off and none of the lifts/pistes are open yet as the avalanche risk is too high. The teams haven't been able to get up the mountain to set off the explosives and helicopters are grounded. The resort teams hope to open some lower slopes later. Looks like a morning of wondering around taking pics! My room is up in the eaves of the chalet and here's the view this morning. Snow piled to the roof one end and you can just see over the accumulation on the hand rail the other end. Look at the depth on the roof opposite!

Thanks for thinking of me Reefseeker! And thank you for your kind message @Windchime72. I'm happy to say the transfer coach made it up into the village, albeit slowly with all the snow on the road and quite a few cars slithering to a halt and having to put chains on in the road. (And the moral of that story is they should have pulled in earlier, into the designated lay-by's specifically there for putting chains on - the sign was lit up back down the road telling them to!!). So some very heavy rain on the way from Chambery airport, finally turning to snow probably around 1,200m. This afternoon it's just kept coming down here in Val d'Isere at 1,850 (with a max temp of -2C). I have to say in all my years of skiing I've never been in a resort with so much snow! Incredible depths on roofs and the side of the roads. The paths around the village are just deep cuttings through the snow! A few quick pics.

Absolutely hammering down with snow in the Western Alps this afternoon (Sat 20th). It's still meant to be snowing when I arrive in Val d'Isere around mid-day tomorrow. Hopefully there's not going to be any problems getting up to the resort (it's at 1,850m), but I wouldn't be surprised if there's a few problems more generally around the Alps today due to the intensity of the snowfall. The picture this afternoon: Val d'Isere Meteo France Radar

A very interesting question Julian! The climate scientists have warned us to expect more extremes (storms, precipitation, etc) as the world warms. In the northern hemisphere we have entered a period of extraordinary warmth in the Arctic Region which seems to be increasing the frequency of a meandering jet stream and 'stuck' weather patterns. No doubt some winters this will bring frequent heavy snowfall and storms to the Alps (as this winter) but in other years will result in a persistent Euro High and lack of snow. But if we ignore the variability and extremes there is a clearer picture (trend) emerging of what climate change will mean for the Alps, and the key variable is the steady rise in temperatures (more abruptly so since the 1980s). A very interesting paper was published in 2013 - well worth a read. Here's some extracts: Climate change and snow cover in the European Alps Abstract: Climatic changes are already having a significant impact on snow cover in the European Alps. Several studies from Switzerland, France, Austria, Italy and Germany have noted a general decrease in snow depth and snow cover duration since the end of the 1980s throughout the European Alps. Investigations of snow cover and climate change have revealed that the reduction in snow reliability observed in low and medium altitude ski resorts is mainly caused by warmer winter temperatures. Precipitation becomes the determining factor for a snowy winter only above 2000 m asl. Projected changes in temperature and precipitation are expected to cause further significant decline in the snow reliability of Alpine ski areas. The impacts of these changes, however, are not uniform. They depend on altitude, region and local factors. For example, the impact of climate change is stronger at low altitudes, in inner-alpine dry valleys and on southern slopes, which leads to winners and losers among the different ski areas. The seasonal snow cover in the Alps is primarily influenced by high year-to-year variability due to anomalies in large-scale weather patterns. Several studies have nevertheless noted a general decrease in snow depth and snow cover duration since the end of the 1980s at low-lying stations throughout the European Alps. In the Swiss Alps, a significant decrease in snow depth for elevations below 1300 m asl was observed in the late 20th century with measurements from more than 100 stations, whereas no significant differences could be detected for high-altitude stations above 2000 m asl. The long-term snow trends in the Swiss Alps appear to be similar for all three variables: snow depth, the duration of continuous snow cover and the number of snow fall days. Earlier investigations concluded that the length of the snow season and the amount of snow have substantially decreased since the mid 1980s, but during several periods in the records, e.g., in the 1930s, the snow depth was as low as during the late 1980s. However, a newer study using more data from the last 130 years indicated that the series of snow-poor winters over the 20-year period from 1988 to 2007 was unique. In particular, it showed that the decline was caused by an abrupt change, rather than by a continuous decrease. The number of snow days, i.e. days with snow depth of at least 30 cm, at ski resorts between 800 and 1200 m asl, for example, dropped by about 35 % after the end of the 1980s compared to the long-term mean before the change. The determining signal for this change was mainly temperature and not precipitation, and this has had considerable impact on the mean evolution of snow cover during the last twenty years. In the Austrian Alps, various snow parameters at 98 long-term stations were investigated and a more diverse picture was found. The two 20-year periods between 1980 and 2000 and between 1896 and 1916 were compared and tested for changes. Statistical tests detected decreasing trends at the majority of the stations, but the decline was only significant at the southern Austrian stations. Full report: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/261037820_Climate_change_and_snow_cover_in_the_European_Alps

As always, many thanks for the time you put into the weekly updates Julian. I'm off to Val d'Isere early Sunday morning, and from what I can see from studying lots of different forecasts (as you do!) your blog looks spot-on! So hopefully once Monday's left-over precipitation is out of the way a bit of skiing in sunshine for 2 or 3 days and then some snowfall to end the week. I always go on about it, but an important point in my view is that the temperature is forecast to fall sub-zero every night (in Val d'Isere). This allows the piste teams to do their magic, repairing and grooming the slopes ready for the next day! Hopefully I'll be able to make a post or two with pics during the week!

^ @Bring Back1962-63 Hi David - one way of by-passing the problem of chart links that 'auto update' every day is to save a permanent copy of the image to a folder in your laptop and then use the 'choose files' option when drafting your post (which allows you to browse your laptop and pick the file) to add it into your post. So when you're on a website looking at the relevant image, just right-click on it and 'save as' to whatever file name you fancy. While I'm on here this evening, may I ask if someone in the know could make a quick comment on the implications of the 'stronger atmospheric response to La Nina' that Michael Ventrice talks about today? Many thanks.

Apparently there's a Fujita Scale for tornado winds, ranging from around 40 mph for category 0 and up to 300 mph+ for a category 5 (strongest winds around 300 foot up). But tbh I'm not sure that was a 'true' tornado? Maybe just a swirling eddy of wind caused by local circumstances? I've experienced one on the slopes of Stowe in Vermont and we had to hunker down while it blew past. It felt the equivalent to a strong wind of around 40 mph, so about the same as a category 0. But it was certainly a fascinating experience!

Apologies - I dropped a clanger this morning when tweeking my old annotated Strat Chart posted above. The area of westerly winds at 300 hPa 30N is the subtropical jet, not the trade winds!! My thanks to @Interitus for popping me a pm to kindly point this out. For completeness, a revised chart:

Terrific posts above from @Tamara and @Bring Back1962-63. David - may I agree that step 1 for us learners is to get to grip with what each teleconnection is and what is the impact on broader weather patterns (e.g. the MJO). Then as you say, step 2 is to move on to "how do they interact with each other, which ones assist or interfere with any of the others and which are the more (or most) dominant ones." You give a good example - La Nina impacting the amplitude of the MJO this winter. So this second step is obviously more complicated, but fascinating. As an aside and on this point, I was reading the NOAA write-up on the Pacific/North America (PNA) teleconnection pattern yesterday and found myself wondering about the apparent conflict between the recent weather over the USA/Canada (warm west, frigid east) which aligns with this NOAA statement: The positive phase of the PNA pattern is associated with above-average temperatures over western Canada and the extreme western United States, and below-average temperatures across the south-central and southeastern U.S. But then further down the page it states that the positive phase of PNA is associated with El Nino?? I thought we've been in a La Nina this winter?? The positive phase of the PNA pattern tends to be associated with Pacific warm episodes (El Ni�o), and the negative phase tends to be associated with Pacific cold episodes (La Ni�a). Anyway, not to worry - I'm sure as my understanding increases I'll better understand what's what! The above NOAA statements are here: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/pna.shtml May I support David's request to our experts that it would be very useful in helping understanding if some annotated charts/diagrams were posted, explaining what they are showing. Forgive me showing an annotated Strat Chart as an example, but I did this one and posted it in that thread for confirmation of my interpretation (which Chiono kindly confirmed): Right, I'm off to carry on reading through the GDSM paper provided by Tamara - but I'm finding I have to constantly stop and dive off to swot up on something it refers to! But great learning! P.S. What a shame NOAA haven't replace the two retired scientists responsible for advancing understanding in this area. And sadly no more charts from NOAA.

Another 'horror' video clip from Verbier, Switzerland, from yesterday. I can only assume the wind got up quickly whilst the gondola was running. Must of been scary on that!! A change of salopettes probably required afterwards! Hopefully JH is warm and safe in Wengen - enjoying a warming brandy and delicious cake in his hotel hopefully!

Yes, snow cover not looking good for Western Europe, although in compensation there's snow advance in Asia and North America over the next 8 days. A look at the latest GFS 7-day forecast 2M temperature anomaly for the Northern Hemisphere and Europe shows the warm up for our neck of the woods, but look at the incredible pool of cold air building in Eastern Europe: NH Europe Here's the GFS take on snow depth change NH and Europe over the next 8 days (to 26th Jan):

I think you're right on that point Yarmy. And I see some other weather organisations are questioning why the Met Office didn't name the storm.

Have you got any high voltage power lines within a couple of miles of you? Might have been sparks caused by the violently swinging lines touching each other. From the post from @SteveyKemp58 above there seems to be quite a few power outages in East Anglia atm. I can remember the Oct 87 storm and the sparking lines around here looked like a firework display!

Winds expected to quickly ease from 09.00 onwards. But very nasty in East Anglia at the moment, with a 74 mph gusts around the Suffolk/Norfolk border. A gust of 69 mph here in Ipswich. Gust update chart at 06.00 from Weatherquest:

A wild night around our Region but I have to admit to being puzzled by some posts over the last 24 hours, including those dismissing the event as just an ordinary windy spell. The Met Office have had a wind warning out for days and have been mentioning gusts up to 70 mph, and models such as Arpege have been also been accurately forecasting the storm for days (just read the Short Range Model Thread). The only issue I can see is that (as many suspected) the storm edged slightly further south than anticipated. Anyway, here's how it was looking at 05.00 and there's plenty of gusts in the 60's and some in the 70's mph out there. Edit: Yesterday morning's Arpege chart:

It's been a wild day up in France's highest skiing village today. I can't see that much skiing would have been possible in those conditions!!

Disappointing. Whilst the Ural ridging/blocking with downstream troughing near the Aleutians is this week providing the strongest pulse of Wave energy into the stratosphere so far this season, it's not looking like providing the knock out blow to the Vortex required for a SSW. The Wave activity graph ticks down for the remainder of the month, so I guess it's onwards into February for another opportunity. Wave amplitude at 10hPa - graph to Jan 30th: http://weatheriscool.com/index.php/stratospheric-forecast-wave-series/

Looking cold and snowy up on the Cumbrian peaks this afternoon (Wed 17th): Keswick Blencathra Not surprisingly, no-one interested in skiing on the Lake District Ski Club slopes this afternoon!! Raise hill, next to Helvellyn: http://www.visitcumbria.com/webcams/

And no doubt caused by the wind eddies of a snowboarder going downhill too fast......

May I put on the record my appreciation to @Tamara for sending me a very helpful and supportive pm as I strive to learn more about the fascinating subject of the teleconnections that drive our weather and climate. Tamara had actually already answered my question (reproduced above) in the comprehensive post she had made in the Model thread last Sunday 14th January. You can find Tamara's post here: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89152-model-output-discussion-mid-winter/?do=findComment&comment=3713041 Thanks Tamara. And also a thank you to @Singularity for your encouraging comments above!