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Blessed Weather

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  1. Blessed Weather
    Some hefty showers around this afternoon, showing up nicely on the radar. Just had a beauty pass over me, producing a rumble of thunder and a beautiful double rainbow! Certainly cheered up the trip to the supermarket!
  2. Blessed Weather
    The storms fizzled out before reaching my location here in East Anglia. Shown nicely in this sequence from Blitzortung tweeted by Dan Holley: Hopefully better luck for East Anglia this afternoon. Arome showing some instability in the atmosphere as the cold front approaches this afternoon, so in with a small chance.
  3. Blessed Weather
    What a great post Paul!! And a stunning photo - it really does look like the sun is going down over the Alps for the season. Thank you for your kind comment about my contribution to the thread! And may I say, yours too! Wonderful 'on-the-ground' reports and photos throughout the season - fantastic!! I love our mountain forum - friendly, informative and a place where like minded folk can share their passion for mountains and skiing/boarding! I agree with you that it's been a wonderful season for the Alps - particularly for you guys in the east but more widely too for resorts above 1,500m. This article from snow-forecast.com on the 8th April is indicative of how impressive the season has been (and what great news for the glaciers!): Exceptional Snow Depths on Alpine Glaciers Snow depths in the Alps are at historic highs after more heavy snowfall over the past 10 days on top of already deep accumulations built up through one of the snowiest winters this century. Probably THE snowiest this century in many areas. https://www.snow-forecast.com/whiteroom/exceptional-snow-depths-on-alpine-glaciers/
  4. Blessed Weather
    According to a new study published in the journal Nature, the AMOC has slowed by about 15 percent since the mid-20th century and is now running at its slowest in 1,500 years, with implications for European weather. Extracts: Observed fingerprint of a weakening Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation We have identified a characteristic SST fingerprint of an AMOC slow- down on the basis of high-resolution model simulations. The finger- print consists of a cooling in the subpolar gyre region due to reduced heat transport, and a warming in the Gulf Stream region due to a north- ward shift of the Gulf Stream. This fingerprint is most pronounced during winterand spring, and itis found in the observed long-term temperature trends, indicating a pronounced weakening of the AMOC since the mid-twentieth century. The AMOC weakening may already have an impact on weather in Europe. Cold weather in the subpolar Atlantic correlates with high summer temperatures over Europe, and the 2015 European heat wave has been linked to the record ‘cold blob’ in the Atlantic that year Model simulations further suggest that an AMOC weakening could become the “main cause of future west European summer atmospheric circulation changes”, as well as potentially leading to increased storminess in Europe. Full report: here
  5. Blessed Weather
    Holiday weekend rainfall totals for the east - nearly a month's worth for some locations. For those who've read my posts over the last few days, I'm sad to report that the swan's nest on my local river didn't survive the Sun/Mon deluge and renewed (worse) flooding that followed. There was no sign of nest or swans today (Tues). But hopefully they will be back to try again in due course.
  6. Blessed Weather
    Glad to report my local river depth has dropped back today and Mrs Swan is relaxing on the nest - in fact she was asleep. No doubt tired after all the 'nest raising' efforts from yesterday! But it's worrying to see the next spell of very wet weather looming large. Hirlam suggesting between 10mm and 20mm for all of us by 19.00 tomorrow evening, with yet more rain as the week progresses.
  7. Blessed Weather
    Absolutely miserable spell of weather. Readings for my location the last 24 hours have been 0.1 hours of sunshine and 13mm of rain. The wettest locations in our Region yesterday were Wittering at 17.2mm and St.Catherines Point at 17.8mm. But spare a thought for this pair of swans on my local river, the Brett. I watched them this morning frantically trying to raise the height of their nest to stop it being washed away. She was sat on it last week when I passed, so maybe eggs in there. Hope the rain clears off and they win their battle.
  8. Blessed Weather
    Pretty good season for the Scottish ski resorts too. Looks like some lovely skiing to be had there this weekend, with a forecast of a mainly dry and temps just above freezing, although the easterly breeze might make it feel a bit chilly! Glencoe Nevis Range
  9. Blessed Weather
    Incredible video of an avalanche hitting a car park at Mt Elbrus, Russia. As I hadn't heard of this mountain I had a little dig around and found the following. No skiing, but a magnet for climbers and unfortunately attempts claim between 15 - 30 deaths each year. A cable car system completed in 1976 goes up to 3,658m. Mount Elbrus isn’t technically a mountain — it is an inactive volcano located in the western Caucasus mountain range, near the Georgian border in Kabardino-Balkaria and Karachay–Cherkessia, Russia. With an elevation of 18,510 feet (5,642 meters), it is part of the Caucasus Range that straddles Asia and Europe, although most geographers place it in Europe. This makes it the tallest mountain in Europe and one of the Seven Summits, the highest mountains in each of the continents and elite climbers aspire to summit all of them. Mount Elbrus gets the title of highest in Europe. Another, perhaps better known, peak is Mont Blanc. It is the highest mountain in the Alps and the European Union. Its elevation is 15,781 feet (4,810 m) above sea level.
  10. Blessed Weather
    I've no idea how the Finnish Met measure snow mass, but interesting anyway....
  11. Blessed Weather
    Wonderful photos and a great looking resort!!
  12. Blessed Weather
    The latest ECMWF weekly forecasts show ongoing below average temperatures over the next 4 weeks (26th March - 22nd April): https://www.met.hu/en/idojaras/elorejelzes/europai_elorejelzes/
  13. Blessed Weather
    The Met Office yesterday published a (disappointingly) short blog on the SSW event that occurred on 12th February and the second, less intense SSW that has occurred 2 days ago (20th March) with Zonal Mean Zonal Winds again reversing (switching easterly) at 10hPa 60N. This graph from the blog: Some extracts from the blog: "Following a recovery in the first half of March, a second but less intense sudden stratospheric warming has just occurred consistent with the continuing risk of cold easterly winds.” "The lower stratosphere was already disturbed and this new event is unlikely to add much extra to what was already there." I was particularly interested in the statement made in the blog that the the SSW "was triggered from the tropics at the beginning of February.......", but disappointed that this was such a fleeting mention of the tropical>extra tropical>stratosphere sequence that took place and finally led to the SSW. There was a high amplitude MJO Phase 6/7 in the weeks preceding the SSW and published studies suggest this can be an important factor in the events leading up to a SSW. But as I am learning from the excellent posts from @Tamara , the tropics (MJO) is the starting point, and the poleward propagation of Rossby waves through the extra tropics with onward impact through other events such as frictional and mountain torque can be just as important when trying to understand the end-to-end sequence that culminates in a particular SSW. I'm very much looking forward to joining in the post-SSW analysis and discussions that @Bring Back1962-63 is planning to take place in the 'Learning about Teleconnection Science and Background Signals' thread in due course, when hopefully we can better understand exactly what sequence played out in the run-up to this February's event. Met Office blog: https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2018/03/21/will-cold-conditions-return/
  14. Blessed Weather
    Very interesting sounding report published last week on Nature.com suggesting an accumulating effect from freshwater build-up following summer ice melt. It's behind a paywall - does anyone know how/where to access a copy for free? Increased risk of a shutdown of ocean convection posed by warm North Atlantic summers Abstract: A shutdown of ocean convection in the subpolar North Atlantic, triggered by enhanced melting over Greenland, is regarded as a potential transition point into a fundamentally different climate regime. Noting that a key uncertainty for future convection resides in the relative importance of melting in summer and atmospheric forcing in winter, we investigate the extent to which summer conditions constrain convection with a comprehensive dataset, including hydrographic records that are over a decade in length from the convection regions. We find that warm and fresh summers, characterized by increased sea surface temperatures, freshwater concentrations and melting, are accompanied by reduced heat and buoyancy losses in winter, which entail a longer persistence of the freshwater near the surface and contribute to delaying convection. By shortening the time span for the convective freshwater export, the identified seasonal dynamics introduce a potentially critical threshold that is crossed when substantial amounts of freshwater from one summer are carried over into the next and accumulate. Warm and fresh summers in the Irminger Sea are followed by particularly short convection periods. We estimate that in the winter 2010–2011, after the warmest and freshest Irminger Sea summer on our record, ~40% of the surface freshwater was retained. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0105-1
  15. Blessed Weather
    I've added to this week's AER blog from Dr Cohen to take a look at developments with the Strat PV over the next couple of weeks. First of all the forecast wave activity mentioned by @ghoneym above. Here's Dr. Cohen's comment and his chart that I've marked with an arrow pointing to WAFz around the 24th - 26th March. "The plot of Wave Activity Flux (WAFz) or poleward heat transport shows first pulse of above normal energy transfer from the troposphere to the stratosphere in quite some time (Figure 11). This is consistent with the predicted further weakening of the stratospheric PV and could potentially even lead to the Final Warming and the disappearance of the stratospheric PV in the NH until next fall." Looking at the latest GEFS graph of Strat zonal mean zonal wind at 10hPa 60N from http://weatheriscool.com/index.php/stratospheric-forecast-zonal-mean-u-wind-60n-10hpa-gefs/ suggests an immediate impact on the PV, with winds turning down on the 26th - 27th March. But also note a recovery to weak westerly zonal winds not long thereafter, so no final warming yet (requiring 20 days of negative/westerly winds). Next, a look at possible impact on our weather over the next couple of weeks. This from Dr. Cohen: "The PV is predicted to linger across Western Siberia over the next two weeks. This will contribute to persistent troughing/negative geopotential height anomalies across northern Eurasia including Europe. This will allow cold temperatures now stretching from Northern Asia to Europe and the United Kingdom (UK) to mostly remain in place with some fluctuation in intensity over the next two weeks." Looking at 10hPa and 100hPa height anomaly charts from Hannah Attard and comparing with this morning's GFS 500hPa anomaly and pressure charts shows the strat located over Siberia and still reasonably coupled to the trop, supporting the outlook for ongoing below average surface temps for the time of year with the UK looking to the N and NW for our weather: Today T120 T180 AER (Dr. Cohen) blog: https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/ Hannah Attard charts: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime.php
  16. Blessed Weather
    ^ OMG! The Georgia incident seems almost unbelievable and I have to say there is something suspicious about what happened. The lift was manufactured and installed by the highly reputable Doppelmayr/Garaventa group (Austrian/Swiss) with its HQ in Wolfurt, Austria. Anyone who skis in the Alps would have ridden on one of their chairlifts, cable cars or gondolas. We've all seen the 'emergency stop' red button that the operating staff use to immediately stop a lift. They are very safe and in all my years of skiing I've never heard of a similar incident. Reading the reports in the press, this lift had been closed all week for 'repairs' before re-opening that day. It will be interesting to know who carried out these 'repairs'. The State of Georgia has launched a criminal investigation, but I doubt whether we will get to hear about the outcome of this. Doppelmayr have declined to comment so far - this is probably because they have yet to complete their own investigation into into what happened. I'll try and remember to look into this incident again in a month or two to see if Doppelmayr have commented by then.
  17. Blessed Weather
    Great last day skiing in sunshine, but with the clouds this afternoon making for some lovely photos as they cast their shadow over the mountains. On a more serious note, an avalanche occurred this afternoon just above a red run with six people rescued safely thank goodness.
  18. Blessed Weather
    Finally, after three days of on/off snowfall and poor visibility, yesterday (Weds) was wall-to-wall sunshine. With the temp down at resort level (1,450m) not getting above +1C so far this week, there's some top-notch skiing to be had at all levels of the mountain. The forecasts for a snowy Thurs have been showing in the models for a good week now and the snow has duly arrived this morning as we sit having breakfast. The forecast suggests 23cms at mid-mountain (2,100m). So it's looking like another scratchy day for skiing today, with poor visibility and snow-covered goggles making it very difficult. Some pics from yesterday. The first couple show the view from our balcony and the sun coming up over the nursery slopes. The rest from various high pistes. The last is the menu from the mountain restaurant - fantastic value!! Oh, and a half litre carafe of excellent Corbiere to wash it down is only 4.80 euros!!
  19. Blessed Weather
    A quick first report from Val Cenis in the French Alps. Day 1 and spent my first morning visiting the medical centre and pharmacy to sort out an infection in my wisdom tooth! Not a lot of skiing done and struggling to eat food other than soups and ice-cream. Day 2 (Monday) and feeling better. There are bands of heavy snow showers moving through with the temp around +1C in the village. Avalanche cannons going off this morning. Setting off for the higher pistes in a mo as there's a clear slot coming through on the radar. A couple of pics, one of the higher village with the moon lighting up the mountains behind. Second of the heavy snow this morning.
  20. Blessed Weather
    Thanks as always for your weekly blog Julian. I'm writing this post on Friday night from my hotel room in Chalon-sur-Saône, en-route to Val Cenis in the French Alps. The car was reading +15C at one stage on the way down this pm, so certainly mild air over France. Your blog makes uncomfortable reading for the start of the week and not what I was hoping for. But let's see what actually unfolds this coming week - hopefully (wifi willing) I'll be able to let you know and post a few pics too.
  21. Blessed Weather
    GEFS forecasts for the Zonal Mean Zonal Wind at 10hPa show the strat vortex with a limited recovery following the SSW, but always remaining weaker than the long term average. The vortex is now further weakening, trending back to negative (reversal) by the end of the forecast period. The chart from Hannah E. Attard shows the forecast at 65N and the longer term average (climatology) for final warming dates. Clearly we are well within the time-frame, suggesting the vortex looks to be in terminal decline for this season. The second chart from http://weatheriscool.com/index.php/stratospheric-forecast-zonal-mean-u-wind-60n-10hpa-gefs/ at 60N shows the last 4 GEFS 0z runs with this morning's run (5th March) the most bullish about the zonal winds going negative again around 21st March. Looking at the forecasts for geopotential heights anomaly at 10hPa, 50hPa and 100hPa and comparing with this morning's GFS 500hPa forecast shows reasonable coupling between stratosphere and troposphere. This shows the main lobe of the strat vortex staying on the Siberia side and as Blue posted above resulting in an "extended prediction of sceuro trough". Not much changing over the forecast period to 12th March. T0 5th March - 10hPa, 50hPa and 100hPa. Source: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/nh_strat/nh_stanom.php 500hPa T180 12th March - 10hPa, 50hPa and 100hPa. 500hPa
  22. Blessed Weather
    Here's one for the 'Beast 2018' scrap book, chart showing number of hours sub-zero and lowest temps around the East:
  23. Blessed Weather
    Last day of this current cold spell and a band of light to moderate snowfall is set to cross our Region with up to 2 - 3cm expected in the east and 5 - 7cm in the west. Here's the HIRLAM sequence from 13.00 today through to 07.00 Saturday morning. By lunchtime Saturday the temperature has finally risen above freezing for all of us. The Beast has left the building!
  24. Blessed Weather
    What a nice Brucie bonus this morning's snow is. The heavier area of snow over Essex is moving North. But I think the radar is having a laugh showing rain out in the North Sea - the air temp from here to France is currently between -3C and -4C. Btw, I've been following Bring Back1962/63 over on the SW Regional - his posts are very informative including the wider picture of developments. Worth a look. https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89403-south-west-and-central-southern-england-regional-weather-discussion-22022018-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=3806171
  25. Blessed Weather
    Hi Dexy. Welcome to the forum. I love all the photos that people post from around the Region. Enjoyed yours too, thanks.
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