Blessed Weather

Looking at the 'post storm' analysis of strikes from Convective Weather shows overall a very active night for the UK (215,000 strikes) and particularly for our Region. But reading back through the posts of the last few pages there are comments from folk in Worthing, East Sussex and East Norfolk that they largely missed out. I've zoomed in on the strikes chart and you can indeed see two distinct 'fingers' of hardly any activity - particularly the one from the South Coast up through Sussex and into the Dartford/Thurrock area. That's definitely bad luck!

Hi Chris. Estofex on board this morning with near identical 'warning areas'. The big difference between them and Convective Weather is the 'percentage probability' of a storm occurring in a geographical area. Convective Weather more bullish. For a large chunk of our Region the maps show: Estofex (Red Level 2): 15% chance of occurrence within 40 kms. Convective Weather (Yellow Medium): 45% chance of occurrence within 25 miles. http://www.estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/showforecast.cgi?text=yes http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-07-27 Checking the Met Office video forecast, it's describing the situation later today as a "scattering of pretty severe thunderstorms". Looks like an evening of radar watching coming up - I love it!

Our Region in the firing line for tomorrow into Saturday. The drought could end in spectacular fashion for many: https://twitter.com/convectivewx/status/1022578378136805389

Global Warming, weak jet stream and negative Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) seem to be the culprits in the eyes of the experts Pete. Here's an interesting tweet from meteorologist Simon Lee comparing global temperature anomalies in 1976 versus 2018. He notes that in 1976 the anomaly over the UK stuck out like a sore thumb, whereas in 2018 the positive temp anomalies are widespread around the world. This quote from Professor Tim Osborn, director of research at the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, in an interesting article on the Guardian website The big heatwave: from Algeria to the Arctic. But what’s the cause?, confirms the global warming impact and also notes that the 'baseline' for impact from other factors (such as weak jet stream) is now higher: "However, there is one crucial difference between 1976 and today. The baseline on which these effects operated is very different today. Since 1976 we have had several decades of global warming – caused by rising carbon emissions – which has raised baseline global temperatures significantly. As result, any phenomenon such as the weakening of the jet stream is going to have a more pronounced effect than it did 40 years ago.” Guardian article: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/22/heatwave-northen-hemisphere-uk-algeria-canada-sweden-whats-the-cause According to the Colorado State University index the AMO turned negative in January 2018. This tweet from Phil Klotzbach, Research Director, earlier this month: The impact of the AMO is mentioned by Adam Scaife, Head of Long Range Forecasting at the Met Office, in the Guardian article: Other factors involved in creating the meteorological conditions that have brought such heat to the northern hemisphere include substantial changes to sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic. “These are part of a phenomenon known as the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation,” said Professor Adam Scaife, of the Met Office. “In fact, the situation is very like the one we had in 1976, when we had similar ocean temperatures in the Atlantic and an unchanging jet stream that left great areas of high pressure over many areas for long periods,” said Scaife. Here's a NOAA chart showing the AMO negative in 1976:

What I'm finding interesting is the developing hurricane season seems to be acting as if ENSO has already transitioned from La Nina to El Nino, yet the latest multi-model forecasts suggest it's not until late summer/early autumn that a weak El Nino develops: "Climate model ensemble average calls for borderline weak El Nino conditions for peak of Atlantic hurricane season (August-October), with potential for weak to moderate El Nino during the winter of 2018/19." Philip Klotzbach. https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1020023751264690178 Phil Klotzbach is a Research Scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University specialising in hurricanes, so his interest in ENSO here is related to its impact on the hurricane season. This research paper shows why ENSO state is very relevant: Impacts of El Niño and La Niña on the hurricane season. El Niño favors stronger hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific basins and suppresses it in the Atlantic basin. Conversely, La Niña suppresses hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific basins and enhances it in the Atlantic basin. These impacts are primarily caused by changes in the vertical wind shear, which refers to the change in wind speed and direction between roughly 5,000-35,000 ft. above the ground. Strong vertical wind shear can rip a developing hurricane apart, or even prevent it from forming. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/impacts-el-niño-and-la-niña-hurricane-season

MJO - LIKELY INFLUENCE ON HURRICANE SEASON THROUGH JULY 2018? The current phase of the MJO is the latest teleconnection likely to be currently influencing this hurricane season. Research presented by Phil Klotzbach at the AMS 33rd Conference on “Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology” held in Florida in April 2018 shows a strong correlation between the different phases of the MJO and hurricane activity: The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) has been documented in a variety of prior studies to significantly impact Atlantic hurricane activity through modulations in atmospheric conditions including vertical wind shear, mid-level moisture, vertical motion and surface pressure. We find that US hurricane landfalls are more likely in MJO phases 1-4 (MJO enhanced convection is centered over Africa, the Indian Ocean, or the western portion of the Maritime Continent) and is less likely when the MJO is in phases 5-8 (MJO enhanced convection is centered over the eastern portion of the Maritime Continent, the western Pacific or the Western Hemisphere). Here's the link to the presentation. The following two charts from the presentation clearly show the impact on activity. (There are many other charts shown in this excellent presentation including maps of where storms form, subsequent landfall and damage caused by phase). The latest Wheeler-Hendon phase plot forecasts from ECMF for 17th to 31st July shows MJO activity in the ‘lower activity’ Phases 5 to 6 over the coming 2 weeks: And Michael Ventrice has just tweeted: “After a swift start to the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season, things have quieted down. It's not coincidental that this lull in activity is timed with the passage of the convectively suppressed phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation across the Atlantic Basin.” https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1019258434397659139

Top 4 warmest Jan to June global temperatures in at least 138 years... 1. 2016 2. 2017 3. 2018 4. 2015 Courtesy of Zach Labe: https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1019081798913945601

Around a month without rain for many parts of the East. Must say it seems a lot longer than that! EAST: Halfway through July, and while we've had a few isolated showers (Rothamsted + High Beach have both recorded small amounts of rain less than 1mm), the vast majority of our stations remain at 0mm so far this month. Brooms Barn in Suffolk is entering its 45th day without rain. Stats courtesy of Dan Holley: https://twitter.com/danholley_/status/1019138424849264641

And us "old boys" are SO looking forward to our trip to Katschberg Paul!! We're definitely counting down - we've had two planning meetings already! That new gondola link sounds great; thanks for the update and the wonderful pic of the blue run. I'll copy your post and pic and send it to the boys. M.

Svalbard sea ice way down and has been running below the longer term 1981-2010 minimum level for nearly two months now. https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1017634245009858560 http://polarview.met.no/

My lawn is hoping Dan Holley's graphic is on the money today, with the possibility of a heavy shower in my location! The Arpege wind flow forecast for 17.00 shows the expected line of convergence. https://twitter.com/danholley_/status/1017282287354961920

A surprisingly active start to the hurricane season considering several key drivers (negative AMO, cool SSTs, and positive NAO) would suggest otherwise. So this interesting discussion on Twitter caught my eye: https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1016432267382722560

A very interesting satellite image this afternoon. There was a line of wind flow convergence over our Region where a NW'ly wind flow bumped into a SW'ly flow (aided by sea breezes) and the resultant rising air produced a distinct line of cumulus. I was virtually under it and looking east it was completely clear blue sky, whilst looking west lots of wonderful bubbly cumulus. Arpege wind chart Satellite image: All fading away this evening, although the stragglers still managed to produce a nice sky and some crepuscular rays!

It's looking like strong vertical wind shear will put an end to Beryl as she approaches the Caribbean. The conditions down there are currently quite hostile for storms. Any trying to form would likely have their tops sheared off, and in Beryl's case cause degeneration as she moves into the area. Here's the latest GFS 5-day wind shear anomaly forecast for 850 - 200 hPa to 10th July: Source: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com Accuweather also tweeting that "Newly formed Atlantic Tropical Storm Beryl may not survive trip into Caribbean". https://twitter.com/breakingweather/status/1014942713370828803 Interestingly, Phil Klotzbach tweeting that this problem may persist well into the hurricane season: "Latest Climate Forecast System model runs predict much stronger than normal vertical wind shear during August-October in Caribbean & a bit stronger than normal further east in tropical Atlantic. If this verifies, would likely reduce Atlantic #hurricane activity." https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1014166764618313730

For the records - the stats for June in the East, courtesy of Dan Holley, Weatherquest. What a belting month. Come on July - can we have the same but with a thunderstorm or two to soak the gardens and fill my empty water butts please! Notably warmer than average (+1.5C) 2nd driest June on record (12%) Above average sunshine (131%) Lowest number of June 'rain days' on record (where 1.0mm or more falls in 1 day) https://twitter.com/danholley_/status/1013822299236126721

Here's hoping for more of the same over the coming few months....... EAST - MAY 2018: - Joint 5th warmest May on record (+1.6C, joint with 2008) - Below average rainfall (79%) - 2nd sunniest May on record (136%) Chart and analysis courtesy of Dan Holley, Weatherquest: https://twitter.com/danholley_/status/1003706732130942976

It's starting to look like the SST anomaly in the hurricane Main Development Region might have an influence on the upcoming Atlantic season. Ryan Maue tweeting: "Need to investigate upwelling event that has led to dramatic cool water at surface off coast of West Africa ... part of entire Eastern Atlantic over 1°C below last 30-year climatology. Only 20°C actual SST at 10°N latitude is not very tropical." He followed this with some chart comparisons between the current situation and that of the active 2005 season: Links to tweets: https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1001555105387302912 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1001557856167059457 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1001557873426657280

That's quite an area of active storms leaving Holland this evening and heading towards East Anglia. It will be interesting to see how much electrical activity remains after the journey across the cool North Sea. But the heavy rainfall will certainly make the crossing and is already showing up on the Netweather radar.

Great storm this afternoon as the London 'urban heat island' delivered surface based convection in spectacular fashion!! The storm is drifting off to the west now and fizzling out.

That was quite some night, although the storms veered off west before reaching me (Suffolk). Apparently 15,000 strikes in the SE and 50,000 over Southern Britain. This morning's video tweet from Matt Taylor shows how it all developed. https://twitter.com/MetMattTaylor/status/1000601260503064576 Here's a couple of stills from the video showing the evening and overnight: I thought it was a good forecast from Convective Weather yesterday. Here's their forecast from the morning and then shown again with the actual strikes marked: An explanation of their probability percentages: And here's their forecast for today. I've shown the NMM CAPE & Lifted Index for 15.00 alongside which shows a good deal of instability developing this afternoon. But it's worth reading the Convective Weather analysis which explains the limiting factors at play, indicating less widespread and more scattered storms today.

Accuweather's forecast for this summer looking very promising for our Region. Hopefully some good thunderstorms along the way will mean we avoid a drought. Warm, dry summer expected from United Kingdom to Belgium, Netherlands Prolonged periods of warm and dry weather will be the theme of the summer across the British Isles, northwestern France, Belgium and Netherlands. The overall warm pattern will likely result in one of the warmest summers of the past decade. “Going back to 2010, this summer will rank as one of the top three warmest across United Kingdom as a whole," Roys said. The prolonged warm and dry weather will increase the risk for drought conditions which could impact agriculture. https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2018-europe-summer-forecast-intense-heat-to-seize-france-to-germany-fierce-storms-to-hit-poland-to-italy-romania/70004928

Lovely start here, but not set to last with outbreaks of rain by this afternoon. Over the next 36 hours high res models suggesting up to an inch (25mm) of rain for many, possibly more locally. I'm going to be very selfish and say I'm looking forward to a soaking as I've spent the last few days re-planting Mrs Blessed's 49 flower pots and now two of my three 50 gallon water butts are empty. Sorry! This morning's satellite and radar imagery shows the sweep of cloud from the cold front and outbreaks of rain over France, moving north. The satellite also shows the break in the front giving this morning's sunshine: Some uncertainty about how far west/east the wiggling cold front will move, but it's looking very wet for most as indicated by the precipitation accumulation charts to 23.00 Sunday from GFS, NMM and Arpege:

April stats courtesy of Dan Holley. In a nutshell, lots of warm rain blocked out the sun! EAST ANGLIA - APRIL 2018: - 5th warmest April on record (+1.9C) - Significantly wetter than normal (150%) - Below average sunshine (82%) - Lowest number of April air frosts on record Extremes: Max Temp: 28.2C (19th) Min Temp: 0.8C (2nd) Max Gust: 46mph (30th) https://twitter.com/danholley_/status/992016326498639872

They're still having fun on the Scottish mountains. This was Ben Nevis on Saturday. I'm not sure I would have trusted that cornice to stay put!!!

This is looking a fascinating one to watch. The rain band was expected to be pepping up, not fizzling out, which is what a comparison of the rainfall radar at 05.00 and 06.50 show. Note the heavier area off the South coast has pepped up but made no further progress north...... yet! Carol this morning still forecasting up to 3 inches locally in East Anglia.