[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Looks like we are in for quite a ride in the coming days as the Atlantic tries to get in but finds a block of cold that is reluctant to give way.

Flicking through the runs over the last 24hrs for day 6 and the trend to keep the cold further south is quite apparent .This was modeled to be the switchover day but now there looks to be at least a delay.

Quite a skirmish going on next week as that Siberian block looks a major player in the medium term.A little correction further south in the next 24hrs and we could be looking at an extension to this cold spell.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

24 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

 

 

Thanks guys. The frustration of scientific papers that are behind a paywall and you can only read the abstract and first page. The abstract says "The stratospheric warming and circulation change of January and February 1963 are discussed.......    ........warming initially appeared at 10mb over southeastern Canada.......  ......the subsequent events..... .....destruction of the wintertime polar cyclone......"

And the last sentence of the first page says "Beginning in mid-January 1963 the stratospheric circulation was interrupted by intense temperature and height changes of a scale as large as any previously documented".

I concluded the Canadian warming was early January, leading to a full-blown SSW late February, but I'm happy to accept that the Canadian Warming was in November, leading to the above in Jan/Feb. Have you guys got a source of info to confirm Nov 1962 please? There are precious little scientific papers on the phenomenon, although last week Prof. Judah Cohen stated he was involved in a study, so that's good news.

Whatever, for those of us with a cold persuasion, let's keep our fingers crossed that this Canadian Warming has a similar impact to the winter of 1963.

I recall seeing a list on the Berlin university site listing all the years going right back showing the QBO states and including any Canadian warmings.

Sorry that I don't have the link now as it was on an old PC.

I do remember there was one showing for November 1962.

I was interested to see that because that Winter was the one that got me interested in weather as a schoolboy.

If we get something anywhere close to that then it would stick in our memories just like that one did for me.

Edit

Just saw Cold winter night has posted the list above.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Fascinating to see the latest runs whereby we see a trend to try and bring the Atlantic in next week but unconvincingly.

As others have said it's by no means a strong uptick in the westerlies and we still see those wedges and ridges continually showing on the different runs.

In these circumstances a weak Atlantic pushing against that heavy block of cold air to the north east is a bit like a trickle of water coming against treakle.

 

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

For deeper cold I much prefer this Ecm.

Those north easterly winds heading in at the end of the week bring in the Arctic Continental air.

This will likely develop little disturbances owing to the increased temperature contrast between the colder air and warmer North sea.

More likelihood of more  prolonged snow showers which could fall anywhere.

Overall though with more cold runs today the general outlook continues to look more wintry as go towards the weekend.

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

Today's runs all look to be heading on a similar path by setting up a classic Greenland high pattern in the medium term.

Deeper cold heading south west off the Siberian/Scandinavian vortex towards us

Certainly an exciting period coming up with the prospects of cold digging in further based on this evening's models.

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

GEFS Mean at T180 - taka a bow  

Yes signs of the bulk of the pv nudging around the block towards the Siberian side.

As long as the Greenland high holds the deeper cold will head south west into Europe/UK.

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

Granted it is day 7 but this is what I like as Gfs shows the pattern developing nicely.

Phasing the Euro trough with the Scandinavian trough as the core of heights established towards Greenland.

This replenishes the cold from the north east and nudges the jet south.

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

Quite a clean evolution to day 4 with low pressure just sufficiently south to pull in the cold from further east with the ridge towards Scandinavia intact.

The concern after that is the possible phasing of the Euro and Greenland lows as the ridge is breached.

UK model day 4 and 6 illustrates the pattern although we see a similar progression on the Gfs.

 

This would complicate things and slow down any clean easterly establishing before any further Atlantic encroaches.

Hopefully the ridge proves to be more resilient as we get closer.

We have seen the strength of the ridges ebb and flow on differing runs so there is still time for some adjustment to this.

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

The pattern is evolving more in favour of further cold next week, which is a real bonus so early in the season.

Signs of an Atlantic slow down has been there for a few runs but a step up in the blocking showing today has created plenty of positives for coldies.

Understandable that some concerns have been expressed about the small lows clearing sufficiently south east to draw the cold westwards early next week.

Many of us have been here before when it comes to small features but given the current model agreement of next week's overall pattern there's good reason to be optimistic this evening.

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

Models continue to show a different pattern to our late November norm.

The Atlantic jet continues weaker so that although background forcing from the tropics doesn't support any great amplification modest ridging is able to gain some traction.

Stratospheric profile forecast shows zonal winds roaring away at the top but any filtering down is heading towards the sub tropical jet.

Note the slackness over the Arctic indicating a weaker and disruptive trop.vortex as seen on the Ecm for example.

So the initial northerly cooling us down by Friday with night frosts and some drier conditions for a few days.

Then we see whether we go with a possible Scandi high or a high further south.

One thing though is that there's no indication of a zonal spell just yet.

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

Something more seasonal coming up later this week but as yet nothing out of the ordinary.

Fine details still to be agreed  but the trend seems to place the Atlantic high a little too close to maintain a northerly for long.

It does look like a glancing blow at the end of the week,more for the north and east.

It will get colder for sure but apart from a few wintry showers up north it's likely to be mainly dry with some frosts.

[Winter 2023/24 - Discussions & Forecasts]

Just have the impression wrt met outlook that we have a better chance this year of blocking development to our north,north east probably January onwards.

Ecm lr forecast of a reduction in mean zonal winds and Siberian warming at 10hPa in the coming weeks give us more than an even chance I think.

[Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards]

In the near term the UK model at 24 hrs 

We see a sharp boundary between the Arctic sourced air and the sub tropical air across the north of Scotland.This invigorating the slow moving front up there,hence the forecast of hours of heavy rain and the issuing of yellow and amber warnings.

[Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards]

This week promises a bit of a step change towards Autumn conditions with the Atlantic finally breaking through and a more westerly phase setting up.

The recent tropical activity has invigorated the Atlantic jet with lows moving across the north bringing frontal bands of rain and lower temperatures.

A real contrast to the first half of the month.

[Autumn 2023]

What a notable spell this has been.Maybe even too hot for some but really September?wonderful.

Currently staying In North Norfolk all this week about 10 miles inland from the coast as the crow flies.Returning to base from Wells next to sea yesterday afternoon showed some temperature contrast.It was only 19c with North sea mist and getting home 30 mins or so later it was bright Sunshine and 28c.

Coastal locations often feel more comfortable when it's this hot with their sea breezes.Found that this week with the effects of the North sea temperature around 19c helping to make it feel pleasant at generally around 21 to 24c most days at the coast.

A cool down is on the way next week by the looks but what an extension to Summer this has been.

[Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards]

Unfortunately since late June the jet has mostly stayed further south thus suppressing the Azores high.

Later this week looks better for sure as we see some ridging north but it could well be transient with the ens.graph showing a return to more average conditions.

[Midlands Regional Weather Discussion]

Looks like we have an Irish sea streamer going on.

 

A couple of light showers coming through currently.

Still nice to see the warm sun between times after yesterday's dull and wet weather.

[Storms and Convective discussion - July 2023]

Just had hefty storm here.

Torrential downpour and hail for around 25 minutes.

Pics of the tail end of it as it moves away and the sun breaking through.

The anvil shape of the retreating cumulo nimbus still evident.

[Storms and Convective discussion - July 2023]

Looking south west and sky looks ominous here too.

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

26 minutes ago, Nick2373 said:

00z continues the theme for a brief you blink and miss it warm up, then temps back down to just below average. This as been showing for days now but is this pattern going to stick around for July is the question.    

It certainly looks like the first half of July will have pretty average  UK summer conditions.

A suppressed Azores high and low pressure across the north points to more westerly regime,much different to the setup we had in June.

Still this pattern will give some bright days and even average temperatures will feel pleasant enough especially further south.

[Model Output Discussion - Snow Watch limited edition]

It looks like an up and down few days coming.

 

This photo sums this spell up I think.Winter reluctant to leave as one of the early Spring blossom appears.

[Midlands Regional Weather Discussion]

Another snow morning,a real bonus little spell this for March.

Around another 5 cm so far.

1 minute ago, cyclonic happiness said:

got around 2" already round here, dew points and temperature are both -0.1'c   so it's very marginal.

Has it only just starting snowing for most people??

I reckon it set in here around 4 am.

 

[Midlands Regional Weather Discussion]

Got up for the bathroom to see it's snowing heavily and already covered everything.

 

[Midlands Regional Weather Discussion]

Dew points still above zero across much of the region away from the peaks although many spots are close to freezing.

Just a wait now for the lee northerly as the low pushes across.

Sleety rain here is the best way to describe it.

[Midlands Regional Weather Discussion]

Looking at the UKV overlay on the radar the low is headed up the Bristol channel now.

It should keep most of us on it's northern edge.

As it passes east later in the evening then we should see any rain changing back to snow as the colder air cuts south again.