phil nw.
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Posts posted by phil nw.
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24 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:
Do Meto issue the wording for the warning areas or just the warning areas and times Phil? Both wordings for the warning areas differ between the Meto and BBC.
Interesting, tbh I can't answer why the wording is different.
I haven't compared but I would hope the timings and locations are the same for the areas.
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Re weather warnings
Issued to BBC by the M.O.just to clarify.
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6 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:
Some more building to the west, of us.
I'm in cv5 with110 meter elevation and have about 8cm.
Very good event for us
Yes about the same here.
It's been a decent event and more than I expected really.
Latest radar shows how the boundary is across the central midlands.
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Morning, yes another snow day for many of us.I wonder how effective any mild incursion will be later.
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It seems a fair number of Midland members have done ok since early evening as the snow started to settle.
Still snowing here with a decent covering.
Nice to get at least one event before it finally warms up.
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Still snowing moderately now a decent covering.
Certainly a reasonable event considering the time of year.
Happy to see one snow day this season anyway.
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Snowing quite well and covering all surfaces now.
Only a cm or so but nice to see before the long wait to next Winter.
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Settling here too on grass,cars,shed roofs now.
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29 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:
Light snow here for past hour.
Given your elevation and location you look like being in the sweet spot over the next 48 hrs Rob.
Puts my 120m asl to shame.
Like many so far just snow on and off not settling.
Possibly a better situation overnight.
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Yes the odd flake falling here too.
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9 minutes ago, sheikhy said:
Im absolutely astonished!!!!i thought ecm was as far south as we are gona go but ukmo goes one further!!as it stands anyone into central midlands into yorkshire should be ready for some disruption!!but wouldnt surprise me if it ends up further south!!
Thing is for global models a shift of say a 100 miles is miniscule worldwide but for our small location is big.
The adjustment north and south of the battleground will continue I am sure.
It looks like we will see number of wriggling fronts heading in during the coming days indicating the sharpness of the boundary layers.This will continue to test even the short range models.
Snowfall will show up for many at some point by the looks but doubts continue of it laying the further south we go where freezing levels are marginal away from elevation.
We could have done with the Arctic trough just a little sharper and further south before the Atlantic approach.
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A fascinating setup with no sign of the Arctic feed being cut off so ongoing trough disruption through the week around 50n.
Any mild incursions looking increasingly short lived as fronts struggle into the cold air and may well retreat south again.
We can see these from the latest faxs.
Battleground across the Uk which may well still adjust north or south.
Even here in Warks.I am still unsure whether to dig out the snow shovel.
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An interesting pattern with the boundaries still uncertain as each low approaches.
No real signal to breakdown the pattern completely.
We could see a mild push towards the weekend before cold comes back as suggested by some ensembles.
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Let's keep it friendly guys.
Views in this situation are very location dependent and as ever influenced by choosing which model to comment on.
Trough disruption where the Atlantic mild meets the Arctic trough won't be decided this far out.
Suffice to say it's a fascinating pattern and worth savouring from purely a meteorological viewpoint.
Let's respect the differing views, nothing is decided yet.
Cheers.
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49 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:I feel your anguish mate..and yeh this place can be a welcome tonic from our personal Demons and grief. I send you my best wishes.
Quick one from regarding the mogreps 0z runs...its clear to see that the trend is colder for longer,and the further North one travels the more secure it looks.
Regarding snow amounts don't get to hung up just yet,as little features will crop up from thin air.
Regarding apps..I hate them..so many folks have become ignorant to what goes into weather forecasting these days,and fail to see the science and skills that go with it....They simply look at a weather symbol and think...oh tomorrow will have sunny spells at 1pm!!! A massive pinch of salt is required with such forecasting tools.
So today we stand looking at a cold spell that may have legs...and we've counted this down for over 2 weeks now! And that my friends is where the skills lie in this game..
Brilliant stuff all of ya.
Those ensembles are looking increasingly cold as you said Matt and the trend for extending the cold is becoming apparent too.
It's starting to look like we are in for a very cold spell.Follow the isobars down the western edge of the Scandinavian trough and we see they source the air straight from the pole.
If that set-up maintains undoubtedly there will instability features coming south so nowhere will be immune from some snowfall.
A fascinating pattern to follow from late Sunday on and that's before we see any fun and games start from possible Atlantic attempts later next week.
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10 minutes ago, DAVE_ALLEN said:
Until recently, I would’ve tend to have agreed with this
However, last December, the Atlantic smash the cold out of the way a little more than 18 hours. Temperatures rose, almost 20°C in some places in a matter of 12 hours or so.
I cannot recall such a rapid transition on such a large scale previously, but that event left me very surprised at now. I wonder about cold longevity go forward.
Iirc Dave the angle of the Atlantic attack wasn't great and the Greenland blocking was rapidly declining.
Next week looks to be more intriguing at this stage with a chance of a slider setup but a lot depends as ever on retaining northern heights close enough.
Many more runs before we can see how any Atlantic encroachment develops.
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5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:
The ECM gets a paltry 7/10 this evening .
It might deliver some snow but the final chapter kills off the heroine .
No happy ending and no excitement and drama as to how a battleground scenario might set up .
We see a horrible phasing with Atlantic energy , the colder 850s get pushed ne and it’s game over .
Not good enough , the ECM needs to go away and think about what it’s readership make of the grisly end which befalls the heroine .
It's an option I guess Nick with Iberian heights lurking ready to ridge north.
It would be a disappointing way to breakdown. Still it's in the later timeframe so time for that to change.
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This coming week looks a bit of a borefest with that high hanging around nearby but from the weekend it looks more interesting as the cold from the ne edges west with the high trying to retrogress.
The 4 at day 6
setting up nicely at this point with reasonable agreement.After this we see the various differences but with a possible battleground snow event in week 2 as the Atlantic tries to encroach from the south west.
It will be interesting to see how this pans out whatever the final outcome wrt snow chances.We have another warming now filtering down which will likely reverse the zonal winds for about a week after which the spv will try and relocate over the pole.
I think this is our last real chance of anything notable snow wise for many of us so i hope the pattern showing at the end of the week develops into something worthwhile for coldies to finish what has been a long chase.
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Yes indeed let's get back on topic.
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Come on folks use or refer to some data or charts rather than subjective opinions please.
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Please guys let's keep it friendly and on topic.
Ta.
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38 minutes ago, nick sussex said:
True that ECM run looks all lipstick and no knickers ! To coin that old fashioned term .
Yes indeed Nick although the general pattern is promising. The concern is later ens continue to show reluctance to send the Scandinavia trough far enough south west so we end up on the edge of the real cold.
I keep thinking around the mid month period is still our best chance once this next strat.warming filters into the picture.
You would think nwp would start to pick up on this at some stage next week.It would need to be deep cold though for a decent snow event,as we all know,given the time of year.
Like you and many of us I am just hanging in there for another couple of weeks before giving up on anything notable.
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16 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:
eps not great at all.
They weren't yesterday either Feb.
The hope is that just beyond their range we get a kick into a cold pattern from around mid month.
This has always seemed to be the timeline as we wait for this next warming to show it's hand.
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Model Output Discussion - Snow Watch limited edition
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
On the outputs,still some cold interest into next week.
The battleground between the cold and mild still around the UK although at times mild making inroads further north.
An wavering jet will still see cold air returning and more snow events are still likely. Obviously as we head further into March these will be more difficult to achieve more so further south and at low elevations.
I am happy to have seen a decent snow event over the last day or so but I will retain cold interest for a while longer whilst we have this current pattern.