Timmytour

To me this highlghts how things can go with the models.....they can forecast some of the factors right, like the number. of goals, yet the result can be so different!!! Not looking so good as it was earlier, but out of the blue you never know.....the ref can give your team a late penalty

Could be the outliers not taken out because they are the OPs?

Made me look at the run of that..... How accurate are they? Any more accurate than the SLA and 850 temps? Is there an overall driver. I notice that the 6z goes from this at T30 Build in the purpley pinks to T72 Then brings them out until by T120 they have disappeared This seems to coincide with when the GFS run goes from a "oh could be..." one to a bit "it's all going meh" . would they be linked?

There's plenty of references to colder drier weather being good for drying out the flooded areas. But genuine question,,,, does the extent of cold currently modelled reduce the impact of the weather itself being drier? Is it better to have mild southwesterly winds with periods of lighter rain interspersed with drier spells? Can a spell of frrezing weather after floods end up causing more damage by freezing and expanding moisture in places where that moisture was not supposed to get into?

A day of mixed emotions watching the models.....always better when the mix ends up in optimism at the end of the day, though nothing yet is suggesting that a prolonged cold spell is anything more than 50/50 at best at the moment I won't believe we are going to enter a pattern that will endure well into February until I see GP's torpedo listed in Nick F's signature

It's been nervous times...... Sometimes get a feeling GFS has the power to do this with the PV..

Love this Nick....thanks much appreciated. Such an ebb and flow of emotion not so much in this winter, but during this year alone. Remember how, with virtually the last post in the model thread of the year, after charts that had initially excited and then got more and more lukewarm, Fergie "killed" January!!! (Actually just passed on the latest views from EC32 and GloSea5). Incredible to think that we are now seeing charts like you are showing....and to think we will have something, might actually get what they are showing and might even....... nah i won't bother!

But it's gone the way of no 1

Peturbation 1 v Peturbation 2 For GFS 6z at T180 Hope no 2 gets more support from the Op for the 12z....

<grabs omen and runs for the hills...>

That's what I call a good cluster! :-)

Just goes to show why winters like 1947 and 62/63 are so far and few between..... first of all so many things have to go right and then so many things have to not go wrong!! It's like trying a shuffle a pack cards to get them in a precise order at times. Whoever says time-travel is still waiting to be invented hasn't been on the Model thread.......I've been to February 1947, December 1962 and January 2015 over there!

Bit confused..... A poster quoted Ian Brown wannabee Shugga Ice on the model thread......and then IDO responded as if he was being addressed...... are they one and the same?

The most frustrating thing with the models at the moment is trying to remove a quote that you intended to replying to the night before but changed your mind, from a post you want to make now!!!!! Worth remembering for anyone worrying when they read someone say that the models are bringing in an end to a cold spell in eight days time that eight days ago they weren't showing us a cold snap!

Definitely one of those "dips" this morning I feel.....but things will turn around again within a couple of days It's amazing to compare the sense of despondency in the model thread this morning with how things were only a week ago where there was supposedly nothing but the same mush November and December had delivered to look forward to....and Fergie had "killed" January

The extent of my technical ability to look for the xciting is limited to the North Atlantic Swan.... When the yellows and oranges over the Atlantic take the form of a North Atlantic Swan flying west while looking back in an easterly direction, then I know something really exciting is brewing! A few of those gfs ensembles posted by All Aboard look very close to that coming to fruition!!

A useful way of seeing how the models are performing are the very excellent posts BornFromTheVoid puts up in the CET threads where he does a running forecast of the mean CET for the month based on a GFS run for the following ten days. the forecast for the 11th from the 12z put up on saturday had the mean CET running at 6.3C. That had dropped to 6.1C based on the yesterdays 6z, and then 5.9C from this mornings 6z. Will be fascinating to see where it ends up, but it certainly shows how the models have "flipped"....I certainly can't remember any such reduction in the forecasts this winter....though i wouldn't rule out us having seen increases on the same scale from Nov or Dec!!!

It's been an age catching up with the thread from where I left it this morning to go to work....but I couldn't allow myself to cheat and peek ahead and its been lovely reading! I've always imagined that an SSW can blow apart the PV.......but what always worried me - in an imagined world where without an SSW we were looking at the kind out output the models are showing us now that I never thought would come to pass! - is where an SSW could actually disrupt such a promise of winter? Is it possible that just when we've got a lobe or two of PV right where we want them and SSW comes along and rather than enhance things....scuppers them? Not that I'm getting ahead of myself expecting everything being currently shown coming to pass

I think Spurs might finish 2nd this season and win the Europa Cup The last time we finished second and won a European trophy was in 1963 following what seemed to have been a nippy January and February!!! History to repeat itself?

The mean CET for October was less above than 1.5C of the mean for November and December combined. That's only the 9th year that has happened. But what makes it notable for this year is that October was in the top 50 warmest Octobers on record. In every one of the other 8 years, the October was in the coldest 25 Octobers on record!

Sounds like ECM is catching up.....

i think a factor in the warmer CETs for the UK, aside from the world getting warmer as a whole, has to be the increased comfort levels we live in. When I was young, living in a three bedroom house, the only room that had any heating was the one room we'd we used the open fire on. I can remember as a small four of five year old being the first of the family to get up on a freezing morning, ice inside my bedroom window, coming down the staris and getting the fire going. Can't imagine the first bit of that now let alone the horror there would be allowing a child to do the second part!!! Now of course nearly every room is going to be at a comfortable temperature. And whole swathes of the country where there was previously nothing, but where there are now sprawling estates and tower blocks will have every room similarly heated. All that heat has to go somewhere, has to have an impact somewhere. So regardless of whatever effect man-made factors are having on world temps, just the pure fact we live in times where it's not acceptable to be as cold as we once were, must have had some impact on mean CETs in my opinion

When looking at the "compensation" argument, the best example to find is surely the two Junes of 1676 and 1677.....the former was the coldest one ever, the latter was the second warmest ever! (I also find it strange that none of the top 15 warmest Junes have occured in the last 40 years!)...Why can we get the warmest first month of winter but not the warmest first month of summer!!!

In view of Rogers remarkable stat about the two halves of December, I'd put that March as its nearest competitior to most remarkable month ever. I guess the anomaly for the last two thirds of that March must run pretty close to this December's anomaly as a whole?

Actually, the lack of sunshine sometimes gets overlooked down to the amount of rain we've had (or certain areas) and lack of cold. It only really occured to me driving to work on New Year's Eve, a drive that entails going south on the A1 for a little while. At this time of year, at the time of the morning I go, a bit of blue sky is hazardous as the sun is just at that angle where it comes into the windscreen and blinds. The fact it did so on New Years Eve made me realise how little I had had to put up with it over the course of December and late November when normally there'd be quite a few occasions. Small mercies I suppose. Tiny ones in fact.