Timmytour

Septembers coming in at 13C or below (let's define them for the purpose of this post as "Cold Septembers") have been pretty few and far between in recent years, though if we do get one this month, it will be the second time in three years after 2012 ended a 18 year run without one. Whether it means a colder winter follows is a moot point. Although there was a Cold September in 1962 and a fantastic winter (for cold lovers) followed, the average winter following Cold Septembers since then has been over 0.7C warmer than the average for all winters since and including 1963-64.

Trying to have an early look at a mean CET relationship between August and September One angle I've looked at is where the difference is 3C or greater (Aug-Sept) AND the September CET is 13C or lower....as we could get that situation this year I wouldn't have thought this was too unusual an occurence and up until 1952 it occurred an average of once every four years. However since then there's only been 1972, 1974, 1994 and 2012. there's three gaps there of 20 years, 20 years and 18 years. Since 1659, apart from a 21 year gap between 1829 and 1808, no other gap had been more than 12 years bar a 16 year gap which ended in 1758. Hard to draw any winter conclusion however. What slightly concerns me at this stage is looking at 1974. That would be a gap of 2 years after a 20 year gap. If it happens this year that a three year gap after 18 years. 1974 was pretty average up until September, on the cool side without being spectacular. It reminds me a little of this year. There followed a very cold October, but a very warm December and January after that. It would go against the recent talk of a very cold winter, but if I had to hang my hat on a peg at the moment, I'd go for something similar happening this year and into the winter.

Can we expect an early Daily Express response to this? https://twitter.com/WinterExpert/status/641658493225861120 Ryan-Jagram/Ashoka â€@WinterExpert 24m24 minutes ago @RyanSaunby PAOMA 2 model , Greenland block/Polar Jet forced south ! Europe snowbombed back to stoneage ! View conversation1 retweet0 favorites Reply Retweet 1 Favorite More

Snow in the Bavarian alps....NAthan was only a few hundred miles out.....and a good deal closer than he usually is http://www.thelocal.de/20150904/a-week-after-heatwave-snow-falls-in-bavaria?utm_content=buffer8279f&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

If I've got the hang of this correctly, Storm 3 in 1900 can't have been too far off....

I assume the Met Office already assume that everyone knows they were already referring to "since times when such things have been accurately measured" in their original tweet (though I'm sure those seeking out the dramatic for whatever purposes they want to find it will conveniently overlook that fact!) Well they've subsequently provided a correction, sorry I mean a "clarification" :-) Met Office Storms â€@metofficestorms 4h4 hours ago @TimmyTour @fergieweather The record relates to the tropical Atlantic. Sorry this was not made clearer in the original tweet.

This article not only suggests that we simply don't know whether or not it did, but also challenges the statement about Fred being the hurricane to form the furthest east in the last ten years, let alone recorded history! http://thevane.gawker.com/hurricane-fred-forms-near-coast-of-africa-the-second-f-1727656093

Mean CET wise, this year is running in a not too dissimilar fashion to 1974. Would hate to see a continuance of that trend....I believe we ended up with the fifth warmest winter on record!

TWEET FROM Met Office Storms â€@metofficestorms No hurricane has formed farther east in the Atlantic than #Fred. Currently passing over the Cape Verde Islands TWEET FROM BBC Weather â€@bbcweather This @NASA image from Monday shows #FRED - the first #hurricane to hit Cape Verde since 1892! MattT If no hurricane has formed further east in the Atlantic, whereabouts did the hurricane that hit Cape Verde in 1892 form?

Going for a contrived statistical approach. On the assumption that August will come in at 16C or just below, that would make it the first time since 1968 that all three summer months came in between 14C and 16C with a May that was below 11C. So I'm going with the same September mean as 1968....13.9C

So this is what the opening few paragraphs of the articles says.......where does it deviate from accurately reporting the study then? GENEVA (AFP) -- Europe this year experienced its hottest summer for at least 500 years, providing further evidence of man-made global warming, Swiss university researchers said on Tuesday. During the crushing heat wave between June and August this year, which triggered several thousand more deaths than usual, average temperatures eclipsed the previous record set in 1757, according to a study by the University of Bern's geography department. The average temperature in Europe was 19.5 degrees Celsius (67 degrees Fahrenheit), two degrees higher than the average summer temperatures recorded on the continent between 1901 and 1995. Central Europe and the Alps region were the worst affected by the heat wave, with temperatures up to five degrees higher than average, the study said. "It is very likely that human activity and greenhouse gases have caused this rise in temperature," said Juerg Luterbacher, who directed the study.

going back in time a little.... http://www.rense.com/general42/5000.htm In the world we live in today, there cannot be records broken without man made global warming or climate change being cited. One wonders why 1757, mentioned as the previous hottest, had not been eclipsed before in this world of soaring heat.....I wonder what measures were it seems successfully undertaken to prevent it happening again for another 350 years ? Or what had bben happening in the 350 years before it that man should have avoided doing tp prevent it?

Worth reflecting on this again.......an article based on what a prominent scientist had stated which fits in with a prevailing weather patteren of the time.......blantantly wrong as subsequent years have proved but never sneered at in the same way as if an article had been written querying the basis of climate change predictions had been written..... http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html

Is this summer turning into a reverse of winter? Where the south would regard last winter as one to forget, for the North West I imagine it wasn't regarded as too bad. Now we're looking for summer, the North West is searching for it on the latest runs as desperately as the south was looking for winter a few months ago, whereas, all things considered, it's not been too bad for the south East.

Quite a change in the relative short term on the GFS with a much shallower but more moisture laden Low pressure moving north west more quickly across te UK over next weekend. However maybe because its shallower, it doesn't seem to drag up the heat from the south as before? 12z 0z

Folks like Booker don't have a monopoly.The silly stories about Climate change have been far more in abundance regarding what will happen because of it than they have been about "denying" its existence. Much of the media have reacted hysterically to, and given undue balance to, fears being spread about the effects of climate change (kids won't see snow etc) If there's been a consistent tone over the past 30 years about what would happen, that can be seen to be unravelling at time goes by, it's hard to find. Instead the reaction to climate change "scare stories" is becoming a bit like seeing Daily Express predictions of a narnia winter.... "yeah sure!"

English summer months this decade are colder on average than in the first 5 years of the Thirties and the Forties I'll go for an average 16C for August this decade

I'll confess to some ignorance on the subject matter here,,, biut does a strong El Nino in progress explain why it's been ten years without a CAT 3 or greater hurricane making landfall in the US? If I'd seen some serious science talk from ten years ago discuss that Rita and Katrina might be the last seen for a while I'd be impressed. Instead when it come to predictions I find it hard to distinguish betwwen supposed science and Daily Express headlines

It's looking likely that July this year will be cooler than July last year. That being the case, it will mean that the CET for July has declined in relation to the previous July, for two years running. That may not seem all that amazing, but it's the first time in over 20 years.....since 1991-1993...that it will have happened which seem incredible to me. Indeed I believe it's the longest period since records began without two progressively colder Julys in succession. Let's hope we are not in line for another run like the 80s when, from the heady heights of 19.50C in 1983, there was a slow decline to 14.7C in 1988 without any year on year increase (though 87 was the same as 86) .

It's now nearly ten years since a CAT 3 or greater hurricane made landfall in the US. But remember a time when the geniuses in the media were telling the National Hurricane Center they were fools to reject a link between rising hurricane activity in the US and global warming? http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2005/sep/29/hurricanes2005.climatechange

..and there followed from those Julys quite chilly winters...early indicators?.

You have to go back to 1879 to find a year where the first seven months of the year were each colder than the corresponding month of the previous year

Stevenage is like a never ending version of "Flash Bang Wallop What a Picture!"

Was just checking Jo Farrow's forecast on the front page to see what tomorrow's forecast held in store, and seeing a published time of today at 18:07 started thinking I was reading a nice forecast for saturday. Took e sometime to realise that much of the forecast concerned a day that was well into its last knockings at the time it was published!!! Still...when I did eventually suss out saturday's forecast, it wasn't too bad .....bbq here I come!

1923 seems a close parallel of sorts although the very warm days that year experienced came in the middle of July rather than the start.From the 10th of July through to the 9th of August however the average drops from above 22C to just over 17C. If we don't get the benefits of another plume I think it's feasible that the mean CET could drop away to such a level.