Timmytour

Some similaties in the current position with 1959 which, though a cold month overall, ended up producing some warm weather towards the end of the month However the trend at this stage in 1959 was for the high to drift west and pressure to rise over the UK. I think we're looking at a tendency for the high to drift east and pressure to fall. I think February might still hold a wintry surprise in store for us...

It can be petty on here at times granted, but I really don't think people are going to get annoyed by what you are looking for and will continue instead to look at the models and see what way they are heading or what direction they could potentially take. Plenty of time for a change to proper wintry weather and the way stubborn high pressure has now been replaced by much lower pressure over the UK in recent runs highlights the potential for change without any guarantees of what that change will be. The handling of the low coming off the eastern US here after this weekend coming I think will end up playing a big part in what we eventually see for the thrid weekend of Feb over the UK. I think the possibilities cover the whole spectrum of warm and cold and I don't expect too much consistency in how the models handle it until next week

The third morning in a row I've woken up in Stevenage to a covering of freshly fallen snow. I've known worse winters and not just last year!

But FI in the ENS is mid-Feb......

I joined only two months prior.....I followed a cold snowy end to a November. The second half of Feb 2005 was a good cold spell. i suspect the cold and snowy periods were our inspirations

"Now is the discontent with our winter......"

Started up in Stevenage again to add to the dusting already here....:-)

Blimey! hadn't even bothered looking out the window tonight. just peeked out now and there's a good dusting!!

Well it's a pretty chilly start to February anyway.....

The abiding memory i have of 1987 is how those in the office who worked south of the Thames had so much snow they couldn't get in for a week....while we in Herts had a couple of inches and had no such problems....worse luck! i remember being very envious. On a different subject, we manged to get between two and three inches of what was largely unexpected snow last night and into this morning. But life seemed to go on today without too much difficulty. It made me think....had it actually been forecast to arrive from a couple of days out, i wonder if schools would have closed etc. Sometimes, it is possible forewarned is fore-excused?

Although i do agree with you, I think I did read that Greenland (obviously on its south coast) was going to reach temperatures of 11C for a time recently

GFS for 5th Feb 7th Feb 1956 Similarities? Wouldn't mind a similar evolution into this ..ended up one of the three coldest Februarys of the last 60 years and colder than any we've experienced in nearly thirty years

Keep thinking the snow in Stevenage will die down any moment....but it keeps on coming and the unexpected and impressive dusting is being upgraded minute by minute

As I look out my window at a white carpet with the snow still coming down, I feel a "well done" is due to those adamant ones

Decent covering in Stevenage right now and still snowing. Must admit an hour ago i thought we were too far east to get anything

snowing in Stevenage

Not sure how that equates with two years ago when we had a January and a February with below average temperatues followed by a March that was colder than both of them

TEITS, I think your first link is a radar one rather than of the scatter

I'm sure this would be easier to address if you provided a specific quote or two. It certainly wasn't dry in my neck of the woods yesterday. Or are you talking about the coming week? in which case how do you know how their forecasts have worked out?

There was a distinct lack of cold rampers around then :-). Wouldn't mind going back to there in a back to the future style! The mean CET for that month was 1.8c In the last 23 years we've only had one year that featured a month under 2c...2010 which had 2 such months! In the preceding 14 years we had eight months in seven such years! Mind you...after that classis 62/63 winter, there was only 2 months in the next 15 years with a mean CET under 2c

That's all well and good, but what about the models!!!

Could the 6z be the beginning of a switch around comparable to what happened after THAT ECM? In that instance we had all models singing from the same hymn sheet in out favour only to drop it. This time could they be about to do something similar but this time in our favour? Let's hope so! i think it just goes to show that these set ups are often knife-edge. what's bad can flip inot something good....and we all know from experience that can happen the other way round

Wondering whether we'll have to wait till next month for anything substantial but even then it looks dodgy After all....it is "March an' all"

And just as i say I see nothing in Stevenage i can now see it snowing!

I see nothing! Certainly can hear the wind though as i watch the bit where Brooksy takes his life in shawshank redemption