Timmytour

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/11718504/Mystery-grows-over-Met-Offices-hottest-day.html

I came on here to see if anyone was reporting from Kerry. Looks wet there this evening....not an unusual occurrence by any means, but a little heavier and unusual to get the moisure from that direction maybe? Hoping the Kingdom wins well on sunday! Ciarraí Abú

Posted this a few days ago in another thread... It gave it a good go today I reckon!

Water boils at 100C. I'm not sure what temperature air boils at?

I suppose it might not be a good time to bring this up from 45 days ago http://www.torquayheraldexpress.co.uk/Experts-predict-washout-summer-2015/story-26495802-detail/story.html EDIT...I think I've found one of the experts that must have contributed......that well-known meteorologist Nathan Rao http://nathan-rao.blogspot.co.uk/2015/04/summer-2015-washout-to-last-three-months.html

Tongue was very firmly in cheek...there should have been an exclamation mark at the end of my post which I've only just realised is missing. Nevertheless, there is a very very tenuous trend! In the last 350 years there's been 10 occasions before this year where the first six months have been colder than the previous year's corresponding months. On the first 8 occasions there followed a colder July as well. But every time its happened in the past 130 years (yes on both occasions!), the July has been just under half a degree warmer! I'm calling that a trend, however fragile. One that's started though it may not last long!!!

...and I'd like to clarify that I really do appreciate the info Knocker gives us, and that in no way is my criticism of the EC32 meant in any way to reflect on him I have the utmost respect for his posts...he is someone I read full of appreciation for the knowledge he brings to his interpretation of the models. Nevertheless, and this upcoming heatwave is a case in point, I really can't remember a time when a notable period of weather, such as we now seem to be embarking upon, was proclaimed to have been picked up first by the EC32. I do remember a time a couple of years ago Matt Hugo would regularly comment upon them on Twitter. Unfortunately I think Matt took a couple of reviews in perspective I took as personal criticism and blocked me!

Just calling it as I see it Knocker. I don't know what the EC32's verification stats are past 10 days and I do accept that there might be more worth to it than I see. But in the times of my greatest interet in the longer term weather, winter and summer, I don't often see it leading the way successfully to any significant pattern changes

One reason I can never get excited or despondent,nor indeed any other emotion that requires any form of attachment, about the EC32..... it's no more effective than a finger in the air

Could next month join a selcct band of July days, 8 in the last 250 years, in which a daily mean CET tops 24C? So far we have... 1808(x2) 1852, 1923, 1948, 1976(x2) and 2006. The only other three occasions came during the first three days of August...once in 1990 and twice in 1995

....looks like the CET for June could end up above 14.1C now....which means it won't after all end up being the first time for 216 years that each of the first 6 months was over IC colder than the preceding year's corresponding month...but maybe the over 0.8C colder might till apply What does look more likely is the continuance of the trend set in the laat two years to have all the first six months colder, 1991 and 1951, to have a July that is warmer than the preceding year.

Could we see the first ever time the roof over Centre Court is used to protect players from the heat?

It could be the explosively wet end to an explosively hot spell!

The years 1992 to 2010 may have somewhat spoiled our expectations of June registering as they did an average Mean CET of above 14.8C. In fact a CET of around 14C would not only give us our second warmest June of the last five years, but one that was bang on the average for the 25 years that preceded 1992.

Going for a statisicailly based guess.....and working on the assumption that the mean CET for June will end up around 14C. This would make it the first time in 216 years that each of the first six months of the year have been at least !C degree colder than the previous year's corresponding month. In terms of all six months being colder, irrespective of how much colder, there have been 11 such previous occurences in the past 350 years...1663, 1687, 1729, 1740, 1795, 1799. 1823, 1860, 1879, 1951, and 1991. On average these years produced a July that was 1.2C colder than the previous year's. Using that criteria would generate a guess of 16.50C However I'm going to concentrate on the pattern of the post war years. In the two years in the above sequence that occur after 2WW...namely 1951 and 1991...both registered Julys which were 0.4C higher than the previous year. So I'm going to go for the more optimistic slant to the stats and put my guess at a toasty 18.1C

Had a quick look, and 1962 seems to have come close with only a January which was 0.4C warmer than Jan 1961 avoiding the cleen sweep. With the first two months of 1963 being colder again than their 1962 counterparts, the run of 13 consecutive months may be a record. Prior to 1962 there was 1860 only stopped from the clean sweep by an October warmer by 0.2C and 1829 stopped by a May warmer by 0.1C

The mean monthly CET for May was over a degree Celsius colder than last year. In fact all five months this year have been over a degree celsius colder than the corresponding month last year. The last time that happened was in 1855, 160 years ago. If June follows suit it will be the first time for 216 years that all the first six months have all been at least IC colder than the previous year's corresponding months

I've been trying to up by step count by going for a walk every day on my week off. Tired and a bit hungover this morning I did consider not bothering with one this morning thinking it would start pouring with rain at some point. But off i did eventiually go doing a little circuit involving Fairlands Park, These thunderstaorms are taking a long time to get to us and still some way to go and some luck needed!

Interesting to see where this year ends up in variance of mean CET to last year. By my calculations we are already running close to 1.5C..i believe, since 1660, there has only been 14 occurrences where the mean CET has varied by more than 1.5C from the previous year. The last time this occurred was 2011 rebounding from the relative cold of 2010. That was the first time in 89 years with a variance over 1.5C, when the average wait is about 24 years. The previous occasion, 1922, was the last time a year got colder by over 1.5C from the previous year. Could we about to see a 93 year run come to an end? 1921 had also been the warmest year on record at the point, as is 2014. .

The bit of chilly weather we're experiencing remnds me of May Day bank holiday in 1997. I was in Italy on holiday at the time but heard about it snowing on the bank holiday. I hope recent runs about warmer weather coming are on the button because I seem to recall that cold blast in 97 hanging around for a while

Every so often the sensation of smelling a time of year hits me. Despite all the apparent potential for cold wintry weather we have this winter past, i only really ever smelled winter once. Earlier on this evening, for the first time, I smelled Spring. I don't know what it is, the wind direction, plants or flowers at their particular time of growth, but it's a smell that instantly takes me back to childhood years that I associate with the onset of spring. Anyone else smell the weather?

The mean CETs for this January and February combined.....ostensibly a disappointing two months for coldies, are nonetheless in the coldest third of the last 25 January and Februarys combined

COULDBEFACT.....one that is probably fact but hasn't been checked out...... The Daily Express used the words "Snow" and "ice" - and other associated words - more times in its headlines this winter than it did in the winters of either 1947 or 1962/63

I see nothing special about the month. I'm going for the century average taking out the one exceptionally cold month 6.8C for me please

I was just thinking that I can't remember the last time I had to drive to work in an even moderately thick fog