Timmytour

Thanks for all the link guys. Sod watching telly tonight, I'm going to be glued to my laptop watching this

Dammit! Although I think the upgrades were waitng for me to jump ship on my original cold guess and I'm not changing back again for fear of changing what's looking very very nice atm #TakingOneForTheTeam

TEITS...just wanted to say that I was looking through the previous thread, from about 6 days ago at a time in the middle of the preceding "cold snap" we had and just after IF had bought down the mood of the place with regard to the further outlook. You stood up there, in the thread and dared to declare they might be wrong! And you said "look North!" So hats off to you. Not, I hesitate to say that IF was wrong as such....he was only relaying the signals as they appeared to be at that time. But it's why I enjoy reading posts such as yours....they don't just tell me what the models are showing but give your assessment of what they might go on to show in future runs. Of course you are not always right, nobody is. And you didn't jump onboard with the current potential straightaway. But I am an admirer of your cool rational approach and the way you (for the most part!) post with the head and not the heart

I'm jumping ship! Feels like we are constantly going to end up on the wrong side of a fine balance... I'm going for 4.8c now with some very mild, springlike days towards the end of the month counteracting brief cold, but not severely so, spells

A mean CET of 4.4c would keep this decade on track with 1991-2000, cooler than 2001-2010, but milder than the 1981-2010 and 1961-1990 averages. Interestingly though all those averages fall below the average for the decade 1921 to 1930

All I can do is assure you that nothing was intended to be patronising. Not much I can do if you don't accept that. The context I'm referring to is the one in which GH made the response you quoted. My subsequent post tried to clarify that I was not in fact targeting him in any way and i'm happy to think he now accepts that. I would disagree strongly that there's any "bullying" or "patronising" element to my posts. I was making an observation about a difference I can see on the model forum this winter compared to others

I'm getting worried now.....I've heard there's reports of a prank call being made to the Prime Minister. what if it was Piers and they're not taking him seriously??!!!

Express headline tomorrow reads Dammit....only three weeks!!!

Nice post CH...but please have a look at the two subsequent posts to the one you've quoted which maybe will give you a better context of what was being discussed than your post indicates you currently do

i rather think they do........ For New York!

Wouldn't it be great to see that kind of forecast again! I remember it well....I was working on a 6th floor of a building near Aldgate in London and onthe thursday we could see cars slipping and sliding on the fast settling snow. The next day, on the friday, I got chucked off a train at Seven Sisters as they wouldn't go any further, got to Kings Cross by tube and then had to walk from there to get in. I was one of only about three out of fifty in our office to get in. Spent an hour trying to warm up by the heaters that someone had found! I'm sure that was the "wrong type of snow year".... often mistaken for the reason on which British Rail blamed the trains stopping running (they actually said "different" not "wrong")

Got a feeling the Express might be onto something this time....they've backed it up with some pretty impressive pictures if you read the captions...

A warning's been issued for 1 to 2 ft of snow coming this week Unfortunately it's for New York! If only the PV could drop down over us! Any perturbation modelling that?

That would be nice However both those months came as part of a cold cold winter with a cold December and a cold January as well....I'd feel a bit cheated if we only had the February to make up for the gap (but it'll do!!)

G1080 I wasn't at all having a go at you, just expressing an opinion on the particular post, as being representative of others. The point being that irrespective of what your post later on might have gone on to say, you must admit this particular post added no more to the discussion than "i think it's going to be cold for quite a while". Nothing wrong with that opinion, but the fact it got "voted up" so much makes me think that there's a lot of relative newbies on the thread who see the content of a post tell them what they want to hear and vote it up on that basis. I can remember a time when such popularity was "earned" through an experience of exposure to a poster's anaylsis and knowledge. Sorry, but in that particular post there's no analysis or knowledge whatsoever, which is not to say you don't exhibit it in other posts. But then again, it wasn't you who voted up your own post anyway! So I don't doubt you have knowledge....personally I tend to take more account of what others say who've been around a lot longer, not just because I have the experience of how they approach things, but also because I am familiar enough with them now to factor in my opinion of their bias. With all respect however my "dumbed down" comment was not aimed at you, but at those who have joined the forum and whose idea of a good post is not so much a considered opinion on where the models are taking us but one that tells them it's going to snow.

Taking a definition of a "Cold Shot" in February to be one where there are at least seven consecutive days in the month with a mean CET of 2C or less. Such cold shots average, since 1772, once every three years and that was the case for the 20th century, until 1991. Since then we've only had three in 14 years since....1996, 2003 and 2009 Though we might feel hard done by in recent years after Feb 1907 it was 10 years before a Cold Shot came again...and then another 10 years after 1919. wile Feb 1978 ended a run of 8 years.

I think you should come off the fence for once!

Saw this on the Model thread as posted by someone who's been a member for just two months. Now, not to knock his knowledge in any way, but if he has got knowledge, none of it is exhibited in this particular post. Yet it very quickly got a popular post "star". Now I think it's great that the forum is, as it seems to be, attracting more people than ever, but to me the Model thread seems to be a bit more "dumbed down" than it used to be. The popular posts used to be the ones that would give informative insight on what the models showed, the trends that might be evolving and the things that could happen that would scupper the modeeling being shown. Yes, in amongst this would sometimes be little amusing quips that earned that status, usualyy fitting in very nicely with the flow of the developing discussion. Maybe I'm looking back with rose-tinted glasses...but, although there's always been a predominantly cold bias among those visiting the forum, I must admit i find it disappointing to see posts which are prettu much the equivalent of "I think it's going to snow" get a star which some very good analysis and reasoning backing up perhaps somewhat negative thoughts for cold are mocked

The following years were one in which the difference between the sum of the mean CETs for Dec and Jan was 9c or more than the mean CET for Feb 1711 1796 x 1843 1844 1853 1855 1916 x 1956 1975 x 1983 1986 Generally a cold February after a mild December and January was the reason, but 1796, 1916 and 1975 get into the list more because the December and January were particularly warm as opposed to the February being particularly cold

Steve Murr Heaven?

haha When someone takes a T384 post as a means of posting negatively, it's interesting to see how that will look by T324!! GFS is just as capaable of modelling the dreadful as it is the fantastic in deep FI

There's a lot of folk on here who can look at the negative side when most folk are being positive, and they add insight and reason to their "downbeat" posts. These guys I admire and respect. Some are not like that and the relentless frequency of their negative posting comes across a bit like the intent is to troll rather than add to the discussion. I seem to recall this poster earlier today put up a chart from the GFS 06z for 8th Feb with the comment... Well let's see what's happening to it As was on 6z As is now Seems to have "shifted" quite a bit in just six hours to my eyes.....

In terms of the pattern of daily mean CETs, January of this year to date bears a close resemblance to that of 1927. It wouldn't be good news for fans of the cold if that continued to be the case. However, I'm not so sure that the models aren't pointing us in that direction... 1st FEB 2015 from GFS 1st Feb 1927

Promises Promises and we hope they start to verify.......but I seem to recall the ECM coming out with what was described as a "very snowy run" about this same time last year so I'm not counting chickens by any means. I wonder if it's got a time of the year bias?

Come on in....