Timmytour

If December finishes up on 5.3C then the last six months of the year will be more or less the same as 1857......which was followed by an average January but a cold February

There's been 15 years with annual CETs above 10C in the last 21 years near enough three every four years The previous 15 years with such CETS took place over a period of over 90 years! one in every six years! But from my cold loving perspective, the trends are these..... only one of the last three years has had a CET above 10C Four of the last six winters have been under the 1700-current day average, and the two that weren't had CDEcember CETs of 6C or above. So going by the trends I want to go by, a December coming in under 6C means a good chance of a winter with below average temps It's the warmest since 2006. And yes we do know what Jan and Feb 2007 were like! <yikes>

For the article to refer to October as being "colder than average" when it was actually the 10th warmest October of the last 315 years is a bit misleading. I fancy they meant August, but journalism today is of the moment with accuracy way further down the list of required attributes than it has ever been!

But it's not a million miles away from this one for the 17th Jan 1947.... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/slp/1947/Rslp19470117.gif When there's nowt but hope, then push that hope for all it's worth!!!

Not sure I like the word "predictions" in there. A lot of data input and statistical analysis has gone into my thoughts, as well as a considerable amount of researching through the archives. I think I prefer the word "guesses" !! I was looking for it but couldn't find it until now......here was my forecast posted back in October... https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72635-the-seasonal-forecast-thread/page-30

The big clue to what this winter was going to be like came at the end of September. The mean CET for September was only 0.2C different from that of August. There's only been 8 previous occasions since 1700 when the difference has been equal to or less than that, and seven of them have produced notably cold Jan to March spells, mainly involving cold Februarys. So still a long way to go......the average CET for the first ten days of March is the same more or less as the first ten days of December so I look upon March as a winter month as well.....and let's not forget that since December 2010, our coldest month has been a March (2013)! My thoughts are that, not discounting any interim periods of cold, a notable cold spell shall come our way towards the end of Jan, with the models picking it up consistently around the 20th, the cold coming in on the 27th and the first lot of snow from it arriving in our region around the night of the 29th/30th

According to this article, we can expect this year's record breaking warmth in the UK to be broken next year!!! http://www.cityam.com/206241/uk-weather-bomb-despite-cold-snap-2014-could-be-warmest-year-record Oh....and it gently mocks retailers with the following....!

is it worth reminding folk saying 1/3 of winter has gone that the coldest month we've had since THAT Dec 2010 was a March? The models don't seem great looking forward that's true at the moment....but, aside from 62-63, i think we'd be hard-pushed to name any notably cold winter in which we did not experience periods of long drawn south-westerlys. And no doubt even for some of the special winters we can think of, if models had been around at that time they would have had periods of depressing us with their outlooks. Hope never hurt anyone and giving up too early is just a short cut to being miserable! The models will show what they show and I appreciate both the realists who tell it like it is and and the dreamers who tell it how it could be with their plausible explanations. Personally I am fascinated to see whether a statistical observation made about August and Septembers CETs and ensuing winters stands good for this ensuing winter. That means i have to have patience...

I guess there would be four circles of a Venn Diagram to get the perfect winter incorporating a circle of a disrupted PV, one for a Scandi high, one for a Greenland high and one for low pressure over the Med.....although possibly interaction a couple of others would be needed as well!

I'm not getting excited about the models showing winter being real cold until late on in January. statistically speaking it's February that delivers the cold after a September and August with such similar CET means

JH.....it's been obvious since the September CET came within 0.2C of August's that we'd have to wait until the end of Jan for a taste of real winter that extends througout most of February.....people should look at statistics not the models!!! <tongue firmly in cheek>

It's all about biding our time....a long drawn out south westerly is not the end of everything and can even be a prelude to something special Maybe not that special in the end, but generlly the models have been producing promising looking scenarios every so often this winter, even if they have often <PUN ALERT> flattened to deceive. But I think there are similarities with a winters 1947 and 1955 wher eI imagine had models existed then they would have been hinting at what was actually delivered for many weeks previously. However....all conjecture at this stage I'm afraid

Can't help wondering if this winter is going a little bit 1954-55 wise where repeated attempts to push heights up into the North Atlantic were continually rebuffed until persistence began ro win the day resulting in this..... We've only had two periods of Jan - March which have been colder since.....1963 and 1979....so that would certainly do me. Of course we only see what actaully did happen then, not how the models would have projected it to. But I have a feeling that in the same circumstances now, it was a pattern GFS would look to keep flattening in its later reaches....just as it seems wont to do now (as indeed as did keep happening in the early part of that winter)

I'll start by defining a "cold" month for the purpose of this thread as one with a mean CET of 3C or under As I write, a GFS run is tantilising us with the prospect of a cold set up going into January 2015, though of course that could all have changed going into the next run! Remarkably, cold Januarys between the years 1700 to 1987 ran at the rate of more than two every five years. But after 1987 we had to wait 10 years for another one then a further 12 years for the next one!! Yes we then got two in a row, 2009 and 2010, but if our time of exceptional warmth for the UK climate is going to climax with its warmest ever year, it would seem fitting that a cold January 2015 signals a return to normality! January 2009 bought to an end 12 years without a cold month, by far the longest run ever experienced and only the 8 year run ended by the January of 1740 gets over halfway to it. In fact there's only been 8 occasions in all where the wait has been four years or more and, that 1740 episode apart, all have come since 1900. Technically, at the moment, we've been waiting less than two years, since March 2013 qualified as a cold month. But in terms of waiting for a cold winter month, we are now entering the 5th year after December 2010 .......it's been far too long!!!! Come on January 2015!!

Just to add a note of potential caution, where of course so many other notes are worthy of mention But would i be right in saying a SSW could actually work against us? In that what seems to be the perfect set up for us could get disrupted to such an extent that an excellent winter outlook is shifted to a pretty mild one? Great GFS eye candy, but I wonder if it's reached this potential solution without yet getting a hold on the disruption caused by an episode of SSW?

The to's and fro's continue.... I imagine what we have is the kind of set up which puts the UK on a knife-edge between the very mild and the cold..... and the potential for some real cold exists further down the line, but because that potential exists, the potential for the very mild does to if things are just a couple of hundred miles adrift as they rise or fall. It puts me a bit in mind of 1983....potential that kept flattening out until, after a very mild Jan, it finally delivered in Feb. I certainly hope that we don't have to wait that long and endure that short a winter, but I must admit I do tend to favour GFS solutions usually so I am a little worried. A couple more similar runs from it and I'll be very worried!

6.4C for me please..... the cold will arrive at the end of the month to dilute what will have been hitherto a very mild one. I'm contemplating a 1.2C guess for Feb though.....

Statistically speaking, if December's CET did finisih on or above 6C, this wouldn't bode too well for a cold ensuing couple of months. On the 17 occasions in the last 100 years with such a December CET, you have to go back nearly thirty years to Feb 1986 and Jan 87 to to find months that are significantly below the average....predominantly the months are above the 1700 - 2014 average (only 3 Jans in total and 7 Febs are below) That said, the previous occasion we got cold months of any note after such a December was following the December of 1954...more of less thirty years again. so perhaps we might be in some kind of 30 year cycle thing

As the potential for a cold winter period seems to get pushed further and further back, this is reminding me a little of 2012/3. Perhaps a cold February and March are beckoning? Perhaps it isn't the models we should be examining but the stats! https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81498-an-unusual-august-and-september/

For all I love coming in here to experience all the highs and lows of what the models are showing, especially when as volatile as they seem to be right now.. I have a growing sense that the real way of seeing into the FI future is through Ian Ferguson's contributions. in such a period of volatility I haven't seen him put a foot wrong so far (and I know his views are generally presented as being representative of the Meto). the post Christmas storm is not something I saw first on the models, but heard about first from something he said the Meto were keeping a close eye on at a distance from which GFS would be dismissed as way out in FI If they had said the PV was likely to strengthen, I'd be inclined to believe them. But of course, that's not what they've said at all!

The day the models all run a consistently similar outcome will be the day the different opinions on what they are showing will become minimal on here

A bit mild tonight and i 've come home and opened my bedroom window to let some air in. A great big housefly has entered and is currently buzzing around the ceiling! Judging by the ECM a few of his mates might be waking up just past Christmas to join him!

The signals are all in place The trouble is they are not on the same track that the weather is travelling on.... It's got a very similar feel to 2012/2013 so far this winter

We are two hours away from "That GFS Pub Run"........

On Sunday we got Published: 13:15, Sun, December 14, 2014 http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/546865/Christmas-White-UK-Weather-Forecast-Temperatures-Four-Weeks-15C-Siberian-Winds-Polar Today we have Published: 09:18, Tue, December 16, 2014 http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/547160/UK-weather-Britain-winter-spring-temperatureshttp://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/547160/UK-weather-Britain-winter-spring-temperatures Not sure Mr Madden is putting the same emphasis on things as he was less than two days earlier.....and what the hell is he doing talking to the Sun!!!! Surely himself and the Express go together like cowdung and bullsh.....