Timmytour

:)I was looking at the runs and seeing faces.....thinking it gave meaning to the eyes of the storms.I imagine many are looking at the run and thinking faeces!

just looked at GFS and although it seems to be a rinse and repeat pattern of the relentless rain we've had all winter, right at the end of its run i can see the prospects of cold being delivered from the North East. If I worked for the Express I'd be certain enough to headline that London will get its first snow of the winter on the 18th Feb!

The latest GFS still offering no respite for places such as Somerset next weekend... But there are differences in the mode of delivery with apparently a little less progression... 18z (6am) 0z (six hours earlier)

Remember that brilliant picture of the UK from space, covered in snow? Well GFS has dished out a representation in its FI to show the feelings of those who were hoping to see the same again throughout the UK.....feeling very bruised

Something from FI that's nevertheless representative of what's been, what is and what is shortly to come.....

Finally looks to be a change in the weather coming around 11th Feb...... The rain will be getting warmer!

In 1956, a winter of little promise right up to the end of January - very wet with the occasional tornado making an appearance - we went from this to this From the end of Jan to mid Feb. Of course the models now are showing nothing like that on the horizon.....but maybe if they'd be around then they wouldn't have shown that transformation either I live in hope that the Fat Lady has only just started on her main course and still has desert to look forward to before she's ready to do anything else.....

1814...the last year there was a frost fair on the Thames it all started on the 1st Feb. There's still time!! <desperate clinging>

The models are like barstaff in the Winter Bar, getting ready for last orders. But I've heard the landlord likes a lock-in....

I imagine there is going to be a lot of nervous parents who have booked up very expensive skiing holidays during the half term...

The rain for friday evening into saturday looked bad enough from the 12z, but the 18z seems to be pushing it across the country more slowly. Some places look like they could be getting 9 hours plus of pretty intensive rainfall.....and those are principally areas that could well do without any more!

Looks like a very wet January wants to leave us with its signature dish....

Wait to see what tomorrow brings is the outlier a stray sheep or the shepherd calling?

Of course it's deep FI, but if the GFS were to verify all the way through, the second weekend of February looks like being memorable for all the wrong reasons.....

Coming at the end of a period where I have been becoming increasingly pessimistic about our chances of real winter, this negative post from SM should just about kill off any hope for me as well....but! I do remember Steve getting a bit negative last year only for us to get snow 11 days later! So I will feast on these crumbs of comfort! Seriously though, I do take comfort from the fact that, though this winter hasn't delivered thus far, it's a far cry from the winters of despair we had earlier in the century. I still believe that we are in a run of colder snowier winters which doesn't mean, just as we had the odd cold period in those earlier winters, we won't experience there type of winters once in a while where it doesn't quite come off.

Much as most of us want the East to gain ascendancy in the forthcoming battle, it concerns me that the GFS has been slowly diminishing the prospects of snow as far down as London for next Wednesday. Yes we hope the block proves to be stronger that the models are currently portraying it to be, and that wouldn't be a first if it did happen. But such events where it has happened have often been preceded by the models slowly backtracking from progressive runs, not making them more progressive. If the GFS 12z were to verify out into deepest FI, I think a lot of families looking at going skiing in the Alps for the half term might be nervously looking at the snow reports...

Not the worst set of runs ever. There are still chances of sleet and snow in the week ahead and that's more than most of us have had all winter. i think the temperature anomaly charts for Europe that Summer Sun posts up have proved to be particularly accurate over the past few weeks and with the look of them now, hopefully that continues. Putting faith in the UKMO wasn't going to work. Not the the Express went with that! <runs for cover>

I've seen a few posts that relate the possibilities from the East v West battles portrayed in the models and relate to what happenend in 1947 and 62-63. While I would love a repeat of thiose winters, i think it's important to remember that in both those particular winters, the East had previously made strides into the UK. it was almost like it had wandered in a couple of times to check the place over before eventually deciding "yeah...I'll take it". On those occasions the Atlantic was subject to the whim of the East. The situation today is different....the East has got to have not just the desire to get here, but the ability to hold off the Atlantic as well. I'm not convinced that either of those apply. For me, as others have said, a East that wants to push over the UK and is capable of doing so for a sustained period, would have the pool of cold uppers reinforcing it which is not currently apparent. I believe we may get a little excitement this coming week in terms of what happens in the UK. But for me the real progress of the week would be to see the cold uppers flooding into Europe in a way the models don't seem to be currrently portraying. However, hopefully they will start trending towards this in the coming days with the effects of the Strat taking hold and we will see a decent February

Small point of order....actually the nights don't start drawing in till late June so your use of the phrase "less than" might be inappropriate in this instance. The days start getting shorter from the 21st onwards because the mornings are getting darker

Let's face it there are some good opportunities brewing for next week and personally I think the way the GFS has been slowly progressing, albeit erratically towards colder solutions in the relatively short time frame makes me think wednesday's going to give the first snowfall of the winter in my locale anyway. But of course caution is the key....hell even the Express don't have the S word in their headline for Saturday (just 80mph gales!)

Early changes in 18z GFS....Low to SW of Iceland wrapped tighter and pressure lower over Med

If....and a bif IF,,,,the Easterly gets in post T144....it's hard to see the Atlantic coming back easily with the way things are shaping up on the GFS

The advance and retreat of the cold uppers....i believe in the advance, but i don't think the retreat will happen as shown.... The advance ....once those uppers get a sniff of the UK, they are not going to be in this hurry to leave....

i know the Daily Express is no barometer of the weather, far from it. But in its desperation to get something weather related on the front page today, and in the absence of anything sign even it can interpret to mean four foot of snow is coming....it's gone with storms battering us all this week.Very strange because, from what i can see via the GFs this looks like being one of the quieter weeks, wind and rain wise, that we've had for some time (which is not to say we won't have at least some)Mind you, come next sunday there's a huge low pressure system just to the south of Iceland in situ.....so, if we are going to get some undercutting and that heads further south east.....next week could start with a very interesting picture!

Come in no.18 your time is up here......