Timmytour

I think I've seen variations of the "have to wait till tomorrow to see a more clearer outlook" every day for the past fortnight! I think you're right though....we probably won't see it clear up tomorrow. The only consistent factor at the moment seems to be dear old Shannon

If we can compare that to 36 years ago to the day, there are some similarities... So perhaps it's a case of there being some potential but acknowledging we must bide our time

I'm not sure whether is actually has or not, but I believe it's a theory of those who believe in gloabal warming that fresh water from melting arctic ice would flow into the Atlantic and disrupt, slow and eventually stop the Gulf Stream from coming as far north as it currently does. This would then deprive the Jet Stream of a source of its power in our neck of the woods. i think that's how it goes anyway! As for a cold winter, I think we're heading for one of hopes raised and dashed and raised and dashed again with only brief flirtations with what we want until the last few days of January and we end up with one of the coldest Februarys we've had for a long time

The Feburary got better for the South May be a possiblility the models today are easing their way into showing us something similar? An early solo attempt soon scuppered...bought back with a bit more support before being eased back....not scientific I know but i have the feeling this has happened before and in a couple of days time the models might be teasing us with a greater consensus in showing something like that Feb 78

The October and November of 1978 rank among in the top 20 warmest for their respective months in records going back to 1700. The ensuing December was colder than average while the following January and February rank 15th and 21st coldest respectively! All in all, following a mild October and November, we got the last winter to get anywhere near 62/63 and 46/47 for intense cold, being more than 6C below the Dec-Feb average since 1700

....which one will this coming winter most resemble? My belief it will bear a resemblance to 1990/91 with a cold February But my hope is it will end up like 1981/82 with this winter being a little ahead...

!981/2 started before Christmas.....I liked that one

Why the weather? Why not the occasional headline that says POLICE WARN M1 MAY BE SHUT AT SOME TIME IN THE NEXT MONTH DUE TO A COLLISION INVOLVING AT LEAST 5 VEHICLES and then go onto to suggest that a number of people could die and it might be better for folks to avoid it altogether? Absolute rubbish of course, but with a greater degree of potential accuracy than the crappy weather headlines!

It's rarely a straightforward path to the kind of set up so many of us want. It always seems to be be bought up, dropped, bought back again, dropped again, then bought back even stronger! i remain confident this is the case here and a good deal of the UK will see freezing conditions before Novermber is out. I expect excitement to be back in the models within a couple of days....

is this a positive......Nathan Reo is a journalist who loves to splash out on the cold arctic 100 days of snow headlines....i can't really remember him concentrating on the milder side of a forecast since....well since 2010!!!!! http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/208012/Winter-to-be-mild-predicts-Met-Office Now....following last year's "100 days of snow" complete load of codswallop. dear old Nathan is going for the consecutive days of storms... http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/533663/Uk-weather-forecast-rain-wind-storms-December

Pretty similar to a statement they issued in 2010 when the likes of Nathan Rao no less, then in the Mail, was painting a Met forecast of mild winter on his subjective analysis

A lot of hopes are understandably focused on a repeat of 2010, but would it be too much to hope for the kind of winter 1890 brought us? 2010 wasn't particularly outstanding as winters measured from Dec - Feb to go as far as records going back to 1700 go, but certainly was as far as recent times go. But 1890 was a winter that bought a total mean monthly CET of less than 5 for the three months....something we've not gone through for 36 years now. The previous longest run without one was 34 years in the mid 19C and the average is 22 years. We've not gone through one since 1978......c'mon 2014...deliver us even more than 2010. Though I'd be happy with 2010 or 2012 to be honest! :-)

Much mention of "That ECM" in this thread to serve as a kind of warning over the evolution the ECM is currently showing. While remembered well, it shouldn't be forgotten that what followed "That ECM" was the coldest Jan, Feb and March for over 25 years including the coldest March for over 50 years. Much of some of the excellent commentary I've read on here relating to what the models have been showing recently have been emphatic about what could be the resulting trend rather than the specifics. Even the ECM showing an easterly that "fails" then is a sign of how the potential is built in to produce one, and once it is, it's likely we will get one at some stage. Some terrific charts today and some great reading in this thread.

While I've no doubt there are some out there like that, there's sometimes a bit of a tendency to lump in some rational posters with them at times. More than just occasionally a set-up will promise the earth and end up delivering North Korea. Those that draw attention to the fact that it might lead to the heady expectations of the masses being fulfilled are treated like those who warned about not drinking too much the night before. Sure enough, the following morning, those with the raging "why oh why" hangovers who cannot even move will not only refuse to acknowledge the warning were valid, they will carry an intense passionate hatred for those who issued them!

Much as I do enjoy a bit of Extpress bashing, maybe it was around this time four years ago, after the "bbq summer" was a washout and the previous "mild winter" turned out to be the coldest for 31 years, that newspapers thought they might as well go with the likes of Mad 'Un rather than the Met Office.... http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/8090325/Met-Office-data-suggests-mild-winter-but-dont-forget-last-year.html

36 years and counting........ the average sum of the mean monthly CETs from Dec, Jan and Feb is 11.5C (1700-01 through to 2013-14) The last time we had a winter that registered 4,5C below this average was 1978-9, coming up to 36 years ago. The previous longest time between such winters was 22 years which culminated in the winter of 1916-17. It's time we had another one! The average wait for such a winter upto and including the winter of 1946-47 from 1700 was just 7 years.....since then we've only had 1962-63 and 1978-79!! Don't get me wrong....the recent run of 4 out of the last six winters with below the average readings, which bought to an end another record of 12 successive winters of above the average, has been welcome. But we need the Big One to come in! It's been far too long without one and it's not fair that, for 250 years we would have had 5 of them in the time we've waited since the last time!

Even if both November and December CETs finished up as 0.00 I think the year as a whole would be warmer than last year!

He's not going to get his name in the Daily Express with forecasts like that!!!

After making a terrible debut CET mean guess for October, my guess this time is based on the average difference in CETs when the October Mean is greater or equal ro 11. And coincidentally that leads me to the same figure as MM's post above.....7.2c

The view that I've come around to regarding this is that October lays the foundation for the PV and the OPI measures the strength of it. On a strong foundation, with a positive OPI, the foundations are strong and the structure of the PV remains basically sound despite perhaps losing the odd brick here and there. On a weak foundation, or a negative OPI, the structure can begin to look imposing in the following November but is vulnerable to collapsing like a tree in a strong wind. Once the foundation is weak, we still need the "wind" to test how strong the structure is, but the opportunities to benefit from it's collapse improve. Not scientific of course....just a mind illustration for my own benefit to try and explain exactly the points you raise

Looking at records since 1700 and at the rolling 12 month average of monthly mean CETs as they stand after October.............. This year will comfortably go into second place of the highest ever averages at around 10.75 to 10.8, despite being the second coldest of the last four Octobers The warmest rolling 12 month average post October came in 1995, and while the third dates back all the way to 1779, the fact that 9 out the the warmest 12 have come in the last 25 years tells its own story. In fact 7 months from this year have had a rolling average of over 10.5C and a couple of average months to finish will mean it gets to 9 months, level with the number of months in 1998 and only beaten by 1990 when all 12 months got there and 2007 when 11 months got there. From 1700 up to the Second World War there were only 12 months in total that had a rolling average over 10.5C Nevertheless, as damianslaw points out, we've had such runs of mild months in the past and they've come to an end. 1960 saw six months with a rolling average over 10.5C. The ensuing winter was one of the warmest but was followed by four colder than average winters, one exceptionally so.

I see your.... Global warming ‘will make our winters colder And I give you http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past Proving that the weather can be blamed on global warming whatever it's doing!

I think it makes sense for the UK to view March as a winter month (for the purposes of stats) since the sea that surrounds us is about at its coldest during the month. Going on records since 1700, there have been more occasions upon which March has been colder than the following December, then there have been where February has been colder then the following December. The chances of March being one of the three coldest months of any one year are over 35%, almost double those of November. In the last six years, the three coldest months have been a December (2010), a January (2010) and a March (2013) I rest my case m'lud

Keeping with using August as a pivotal month of the year, and being reasonably confident now that the mean CET for October will be within 3C of the August figure, I've turned my attention to looking at the other years where this was the case. Since 1700 it's only happened on seven previous occasions, The only year prior to 1900 being 1811, with the other six occasions being 1908, 1921,1954, 1968, 1986 and 2011. Looking at the winter from the perspective of the sum of the monthly mean CETs from December to March, those seven years have given us five years of relatively cold ensuing winters and one exceptionally warm one in 2011, (principally because of a very warm March).The other tended to the warmer side of winters. The average mean CET for the months Dec - March since 1700 has been just over 4.23C, though since 1900 this has risen the best part of half a degree to just over 4.67C In each of the five cold winters the average CET for the four months is at least one degree under the 1900 to current day average. The super "warm" winter that followed October 2011 was 1.2C above the same average which the other winter, that followed October 1921, was 0.13C over. All these winters together produce an average monthly CET of just over 4.01C.....over 0.65C below the average of the last century. Remove the exceptional 2011 from the calculations and the average goes down to just under 3.71C....over half a degree colder than the average from 1700 to current day. Statistical fun perhaps.....or a further pointer towards a colder set up than usual for winter?

Couldn't resist putting out a little reply on Twitter this morning....