Timmytour

I hope something cold really is afoot......I must admit I've been waiting for the models to "pick up the signal" for so long time now I'm starting to think I'd have more chance of seeing it by waiting outside my local supermarket for Kate Moss and Naomi Campbell to pop in and buy some toothpaste.....

I like P4 When runs like this are being produced, even if in apparent isolation, is it an indication that the PV is in a more fluid state and liable to move around more and perhaps throw off lobes in our direction? And if that us the case, does it also mean that if such an outcome as P4 did come to fruition, it wouldn't necessarily mean a long term cold spell as the continuing fluidity of the PV then moves it away from the areas that benefit us for cold?

This morning's runs can be pretty much binned because...........I don't really like them!

I can never be without hope in winter........for the UK weather to be able to go from this... to this three days later... ...means there is always always the chance......

I see interest in that one day evolution. The technical term may be something aliong the lines of heights attempting to rise to West of Greenland. I'm never sure tbh. What I always look for is the North Atlantic Flying Swan....where the oranges and yellows rise up towards the West of Greenland and take the shape of a swan flying north west while looking in a north east direction. Not the most technical of explanations but I have seen it in recent years...alas only in T9 to T10 charts! But over the last few weeks I sense there's been a constant probling of that area (ie the west side of Greenland) without too much success to be fair.....but all the time it probes it is set to take advantage of when there's a weakness there that lets it finally succeed. The above charts are another little probe that doesn't get anywhere.....but at some point this winter it will find the weakness and then it will be a case of let the fun and games begin......I hope!

It's tempting to take a lot of the Daily Express headlines about snow and ice with a pinch of salt. Only there's usually very little need for any salt at all

Great stuff Steve..... to some degree, whether it verifies or not is irrelevant,. There's a reasoned methodology and analysis there that can be refined in the future with the benefit that hindsight will bring and perhaps take us closer to the day when such forecasts are more consistently near the mark But I happen to think that the efforts you've already put in, not just this year, but in all the previous years as well, are getting you nearer to this point then perhaps many others are. For your sake, as a reward for your efforts, and for my sake from a purely selfish aspect as being a lot more representative of the kind of winter I want to see, I sincerely hope you are recognised in hindsight as having been very close to the mark

I'm expecting to see a Storm of the Century headline from the Dandy Express soon in regard to developments on the ECM tonight

I see Gavin's forecast pretty much reflects mine put up somewhere on this site at the start of October, and based on the fact that September's mean CET had a variance from August's CET within 0.2C. This year was only the 9th time that's happened since 1700 In the other 8 years with such a small variance between August and September, the ensuing Feb-Mar period has been significantly colder than average on seven occasions, with the exception year coming over 250 years ago. Here are those years and how the Feb-Mar period ranks out of 314 years (1701-2014) 1750 - - - (Feb-Mar 1751 ranks) 228 1760.............38 1844.............310 1891............270 1929............225 1941............291 1961.............248 1985............307 So we may get a decent winter, but we may have to be patient

About this time of the year, when the models are not providing much inspiration, I like to throw in a comparison to the early part of the 1946/7 winter to generate some hope This development over 3rd and 4th Dec back then doesn't seem a million miles away.....

If it gets to 8.5C, This will be the 17th year since 1700 with a November mean CET of 8.5c or above The average mean CET for both Januarys and Februarys that follow such Novembers is lower than the 1700-2013 average

Cheers Tom....I find myself always optimistically looking at the way January 1947 panned out in times when optimism and potential for cold seem low so I definitely am one always living in hope!! Thanks as well S4...my thoughts too, we still need a better than 7 roll of the dice......and I think we are just as likely to throw above seven as we are below it......gingers are as tightly crossed as they have always been

Is it totally inconceiveable that, for all the talk of a weak PV this winter and the potential for cold, that's the way we end up going? I can imagine that, in late November 1997, much would have been made of a chart like below to ramp up the chances of a cold winter... However the winter of 1997/98 is definitely one I would NOT like to go through again

To be fair, the Daily Express with their "100 days of snow" forecast was only one word out!

Much of the model watching this month has been like suffering from trapped wind. One gets the impression now however that the milk of magnesia has been taken and we're soon going to find out through which orifice the wind escapes......

You can go back to the start of this thread and read plenty of thoughts about what the trends are from D6. The only thing I can read from the models is continuing stalemate. A place in no man's land between the Atlantic and the East which will provide us with a continuing fare of showers and longer periods of rain interspersed with the occasional chilly night or two. In a week's time it might be possible to be more positive about one outcome or the other dominating, but I've seen too many indicators of the Atlantic breaking through after D6 onwards over the past couple of weeks to believe that the situation is really going to resolve itself one way or the other this time. For me, wednesday represents the next potential time for a gamechanger.....will the rain currently showing make it through and away from the South East as quickly as is forecast? I suspect it may linger and cause problems and that may indicate the block to the east asserting itself.....but it's waiting on time to tell as, as has been the case for much of this month!

There's only a sample of six years going back to 1700 to choose from in winters where both the August CET was below 15C and the November was above 8C. I'll go for the average December those years have produced being 3.6C

A November CET above 8C, as seems likely to be the case, in a year where the August CET was below 15C, has only ever happened six times previously going back to the year 1700. Four of the subsequent winters have been more than one degree below the 1700-2013 average, one almost spot on the average, and one was 3.7C above the average! The first one was 1817, nearly two degrees under the average, the warm winter year was 1881, over 130 years ago and since then we've had 1951/2 (average, anticyclonic and followed by a fantastic March!) 1963/4 (cold, anticyclonic and followed by a decent March), and 1946 and 1978 (nuff said!)

I suspect it's because, if he was renowned for being right, we'd all be praying the respite of a mild snowless winter this year!!!

What magic days they were...but poor old Paul!! I remember my wife at the time and kids were in Ireland at the time. And due to come back on the monday, so I'd taken the laptop home with me to work at home as I was due to pick them up. It started snowing around by me at 7pm on the sunday evening. And it just kept on and on. There would have been no getting to work the next day had i been going in, but the kids flight was cancelled so i had no excuse not to work! The thing I really recall was the forecast.....this kept referring to a possible six inches of snow due to fall FROM 1pm onwards on the monday....by that time we'd already had seven inches!!! So that was something to really look forward to! Only it never quite happened. the Streamer gave us loads that wasn't forecast, the forecast gave us nothing but sleet and cold rain! Nevertheless a good covering remained. When my kids were finally able to fly back on the thursday, into Luton rather than the nearby Stansted, they were amazed to see the snow that had fallen. It was the most they had ever seen in their young lives....they had seemed to be destined to be the kids who would never see snow due to Global warming!! even so I was a tad disappointed that they weren't seeing it at its peak at around lunchtime on the monday.

Errmm.... four out of the last six winters have been below the 1700-2013 average!! You have to go back nearly 30 years since there was such a concentration of below average winters. Funny time for global warming to be "gearing up"

That was a notable winter in the US..... "The Winter 1985 Cold Wave" that started off with the US having unseasonably high temperatures in the preceding December. I wonder if that could translate a month earlier and a a couple of thousand miles east into something for us this winter Certainly as you say though, there would appear to be a lot of similarities with this year

We would cope. We did in 1947 just after a war! We did in 1962/63. We are just as capable of coping now. The main difference is that people seem to have a much much bigger capacity for complaining and moaning!

Tommorow onwards will see consistent modelling of the PV pouring into Europe and joing the ranks of those at Calais looking for a way into the UK. Posting here instead of the model thread because the models aren't showing it yet

There was not a single air frost recorded in the month of November 1946 just saying