Timmytour

If you look at the first ten days of January in the 120 years leading up to 2010, there were 19 days for which the mean CET was 10C or over. As an average, that's two in every 13 years. Prior to this year, the 15 years of the 21st century (counting 2000) had yet to deliver such a day....the trend is reversing!!!

Fascinating to look at the short term at the moment.... quite a lot of movement from run to run on the position as it affects the UK, though nothing so drastic that any kind of pattern change can be read from it. To me the Azores high seems a lit like a trampoline rather than a solid blocking feature to the South......I think the low pressure to the NW of us will eventually come a lot further south than currently modelled, perhaps as far south as the Scotland England border, before bouncing back up off the Azores high. i think this was trending a little in the last couple of runs but not so just going by the last run. Wouldn't be unusual for a couple of runs to show something on GFS, a futher run miss it out only for later runs to bring it back. I think that's what will happen on a small scale in the short term. I hope that what will happen on a larger scale in the longer term regarding the potential for cold that was being shown

Could we be heading for a 1983 type of January, February? From to

Interesting storm potential towards next weekend as others mention, but I wouldn't be surprised to see something a little nasty fly off that depression currently modelled to the NW of Scotland this weekend and take a path south east. Just a gut feeling that the Azores high will prove a little more flexible than appears and sag south to give way (before boucing back!). Either this weekend or nest weekend could end up provoking memories of that Burns days back in 1990

The stormy weather being modelled for next weekend reminds me of this time last week when there was a potent storm modelled for this coming weekend. that's not going to verify is it?

I get 10.95 for 2014...even further out!

Just looked at this century's Annual Mean CETs against the monthly ones taking into account the number of days in each month Apart from being 0.1C over the top for this year, I'd also calculate 2013 on the same basis as being 9.61C instead of the 9.56C given as the official...a 0.05c difference! (even using pure months it's 9.57c) Yet calculating it taking days into account for every other year this century give me the same figure as the official I am enlightened but remain bemused

Doh! I had indeed forgotten to take that into account! My only trouble is, now I do, I get 10.94 and not 10.93c!!!

Although the mean CETs for each month are given to onlt one decimal place, do they actually go further? I ask because, by my calcs on the given montly mean CETs, the average mean CET for the year would be 10.92c not 10.93c as quoted by the Meto

I've a feeling that comment will be construed by some (actually the Daily Express) to mean that Met Office now agrees with experts that Britain will become like Siberia bla bla bla

Not much hope of something cold being given to us by the models or from an SSW then. I might start buying the daily express as a source of hope to cling onto! :-)

Such a shame to read about when people pay for a service that isn't delivering.... sorry to hear that Nathan. And so glad that, in contrast, you offer such great value with your newspaper articles... http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/540052/UK-weather-December-forecast-heavy-snow-winter-freeze Published: 06:00, Wed, November 26, 2014

Interesting to see signs in the later stages of the models for height rises in Greenland despite a strong looking PV. This would tie in with my thinking of the OPI...it's not a reference to how strong the PV will look over the following winter, but how strong its roots are and hence how vulnerable it would be to the right kind of pressure being exerted upon it. My hope is that under the surface, it's not very strong at all and that one day soon it will be attacked from the Atlantic and give way!

Defining a Cold Month Year as in the top 25 coldest months for Man CET since 1700.....to qualify for this a January would need to have a mean CET of 0.4C Looks very much like it's not going to happen this year.....but the last time we got a Cold Month Year for January was in 1979 which is a wait of 35 years, only the 49 year wait for a cold July has been longer! In contrast there were five in the 11 years 1820 to 1830! That said it's not the longest wait we've experienced.... in the 100 years btween 1839 and 1939 there were only three such Januarys with 1879 bringing a 41 year wait to an end and 1940 bringing a 45 year wait to an end, Here's a list of the how many years we've waited for the last Cold Month with the number of corresponding Warm months we've had in that period....only December of all the months has had no Warm months since the last Cold one! JAN..... 1979..... 7 FEB..... 1986..... 6 MAR... 2013..... 1 APR.... .1986..... 5 MAY.... 1996.... 3 JUN..... 1991.... 2 JUL...... 1965.... 7 AUG.... 1986..... 5 SEP..... 1986..... 7 OCT.... 1992..... 8 NOV... 1985..... 8 DEC... .2010..... 0

it looks bleak, but the eternal optimist in me says it's not really all that different to the positioning and strength of the high pressure ten days or so before 1947 really got going....

Hear hear W-h It's a pity they couldn't find any of those "experts" to give them a quote.....

December is the only month for which the mean CET average in the 21st century is lower so far than it was in the 20th century. The average increase in monthly mean CETs between the 21st (so far) and the 20th centurys is nearly three quarters of a degree centigrade. The average increase in monthly mean CETS comparing the last 15 years to the 19th century is over one degree centigrade

Frosty.... i meant no offence, far from it. I love your posts and the optimism in your posts is always in my heart....even if sometimes i find it difficult to get into my head And the perturbations fascinate me....I often forget about them until someone like yourself puts one up every now and then. I honestly do believe that all it takes is one to show us the kind of stuff we're after to generate a real for some optimism at least.

Does the year not got by the average monthly CET then? If December is 5.2C i would have thought the annual CET was slightly cooler at just under 10.92C

It's always perturbation no 5 it seems! wonder if it will snap up the "Perturbation Of The Year" when the annual Netweather Model Awards are handed out? Seriously, and i apologise because I'm sure this question will have been asked before, but is there any records kept of which perturbations end up beng the most accurate and which, if any, are renowned for successfully picking up early signals (even if they don't go on to be successful with the molddeling on them)

I see no mention for am occurrence that has only happened 8 times previously going back to 1700. Namely August and September CET means which were within 0.2c of each other. On 7 out of previous 8 occasions there has followed a late cold winter

Beautiful frost this morning....wish I'd taken photos! Some encouraging news from Chris Fawkes this morning regarding an SSW.....could lead to the change in model outlook we all yearn for! At thre moment, there's less optimism about what the models are showing now than there was at this time last year.......and we know how last year turned out!!!!

It's a tweet from two hours ago....

We are due a colder February nonetheless.... over the last 18 years it's outside the Champions League of the top four coldest months we've experienced...the top four being Dec 2010, Jan 2010, Jan 1997 and March 2013 If February was a football club it would be managed by David Moyes.....I only hope it's swapped him for someone like Mourinho this season!

It's still possible to get something out of those charts.... For the first one I'm getting a crocodile pushing a pram and for the second one a seal laughing as he throws the UK cold winter in the bin :-)