draztik
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Posts posted by draztik
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Referring more to the end of their runs. Obviously ecm stops at 240, but by that stage gsf has the low over the UK, with cooler conditions thereafter. The ecm likely continues with high pressure after t240. I always add that these models are in FI, but gfs has been consistent of a breakdown for days now, and while the ensembles are not as strong as yesterday - indications are still showing some signs of a breakdown. I do not ignore the ecm, but the evidence just isn't there (at this stage), but may change.
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gfs sees things rather differently, still insisting on a cool down, with this low near the bay of Biscay being the spoiler. We'll see which model stacks up. Evidence for me still supports the gsf's analysis, with ensemble support!
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Um, no! That heatwave ran for the best part of 6 weeks, with temperatures exceeding 40C in many areas of Russia. This current heatwave, and what the models appear to show, wont result in a similar event!This is looking like it could give the Moscow heatwave that happened 3 years ago around this time a good run for its money!! These charts are simply staggering!
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yep, it seems if you question a breakdown you're a raincloud of doom and misery. I have always said i enjoy the heat, but try and be unbias and reflect on what the models suggest. I have said the breakdown is in FI, so obviously there is room for change. Cant understand why those that adore the heat see the need to shout anyone down if they suggest a cooler scenario developing.It really is a shame that all the model output can't be discussed, without those simply saying what the models show being jumped on, and told 'no the heat is here to stay, like it or lump it'. Various runs have hinted at a breakdown, simple as, whether and how it verifies is another matter, as is whether there is any continuation of hot weather.
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the beauty of model watching, one cant keep pace with the changes. Maybe the members desiring this heat to continue will be proved right, and this high wont shift. But the current evidence and ensemble data point to a cool down.Friday 26th July to be exact on this run, and the breakdown comes from the South as opposed to the north west as previous runs have suggested.
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huh? The models haven't changed that much from yesterday. GFS 12z maintains a breakdown with cooler conditions from the middle of next week. That is all i said. Models still show this. Your assertion that the heat was here to stay doesn't hold up... We will likely see a cool down next week.So, yesterday's breakdown has for the time being been put on hold - had the lecture off a Draztik? Was told That i had a foolhardy approach by suggesting it may continue and by simply suggesting - in one word, amazing :)In a word - amazing.
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Gorgeous week ahead for many. GSF 6z still brings breakdown from the 23rd from northwest. With a sustained area or low pressure. Obviously still FI, but some consistency to this end now seems in sight! A relief for those who dislike the heat.
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im only basing my analysis on what i see from the models, the GFS model in particular. It has just updated and once again shows a significant change from the 23rd onwards! I realise this is FI, but to suggest the Azores high is the form horse or to boldly predict the heat is here to stay is reckless. I want this heatwave to stay a few more weeks, but that now appears wishful thinking.That's his analysis. By your measure, the only ones who have looked 'foolhardy' are those who backed a mid month breakdown on slim evidence. What happened to that? The Azores High is the form horse: that doesn't mean it will always win, but it's a good bet.
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how can you merely suggest that as fact? The GFS model, clearly shows the warm weather losing its grip at the end of its current run. Yes, it may be in FI, but to suggest its here to stay seems foolhardy at best.Like it or not, it is here to stay..
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Hope that the 12z GFS FI does not come to pass, as it has low pressure stuck over us for days at the end of its run!!
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Agreed, if memory serves me, we had a decent 5-8 days last July, prior to the Olympic opening ceremony, where temperatures breached 30C at Olympic Park - also, the weather during the games was pretty decent, given the awful June we had.what with the models showing the high regressing, it appears it will be an average July. Don't really understand the hype.it looks just like a "normal" July to me although of course its t+240 , big time fantasy island!!
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Just noticed that the media are starting to report about the 'incoming heatwave'... "it will last all of July", writes the Daily Telegraph.
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in your opinion, and by looking at the models as they are currently, are we looking at a prolonged spell? Or a matter of days?it looks generally fine, sunny and very warm from the end of the coming week onwards.
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Prolonged good spell, if this ecm is anything to go by!! Lets hope.
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Is it just me, or has the recently updated 12z GFS put summer on hold again? It does not look nearly as settled as the 6z
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John, thanks for the kind welcome - certainly an enthusiast when it comes to the weather, and enjoy reading most peoples opinions on here, even the more eccentric views
- I may have only started posting, but have observed for the last few weeks or so.Don't want this to go off-topic, so I'll leave it at that! And get back to chasing the elusive British summer....
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I Know the feeling, "Newbie" here too!
Told everyone at work that next week is going to be a scorcher and attempted to describe the Azores high and different placements of the jetstream.
Think i have learned my lesson well!
Yes, though as some still suggest (and that we can see from some models), there is a chance of better weather from the 6th onwards. But I suppose the lesson I have learned is to focus on 'chance', and not to get too carried away - such as telling my son about heat at Glastonbury and the Mrs we would need a new barbecue, who laughed and said 'as if we will need that'...ha!!
Thing is, only a few days ago, netweather and many forum members were saying this weekend and most of next week would be glorious, and now, the models show a very average setup. So, though it is showing better weather from the 6th of July onwards, I'll wait until a few days before, to verify.
This has definitely opened my eyes, and I wont be jumping the gun from here on in!
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Unfortunately, i am one of those "newbies" who was taken in by all this talk of an impending good spell. I told my son, who is visiting Glastonbury, that he would be wise to pack summer clothes, as opposed to jackets etc... Woke up this morning to a text saying "we were deluged yesterday, thanks for your forecast :)"
I just hope the models we are seeing can become more consistent and we see this fine spell of weather most of us would cherish!!
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:rofl:
- I may have only started posting, but have observed for the last few weeks or so.
Model Output Discussion 12z 08/07/13
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted